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Xi Jinping's long reign as the supreme leader of China has been marked by unprecedented consolidation of power, placing him in a position comparable to Mao Zedong. His tenure witnessed sweeping purges, restructuring of key institutions, and the creation of a cult of personality that reinforced his authority. However, recent events have cast a shadow over this image of unwavering power. Xi's unexplained absence from major international events, including the BRICS summit, has ignited a flurry of speculation and raised concerns about the stability of the Chinese political system. In authoritarian regimes, such disappearances are rarely coincidental; they often point to strategic maneuvering or, more troublingly, underlying instability. The lack of transparency surrounding Xi's activities has fueled rumors and intensified the scrutiny of China's opaque political landscape. The last confirmed public appearance of Xi Jinping was on June 24, when he met with Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in Beijing. Following this meeting, he vanished from the public eye for almost two weeks, creating a vacuum of information that was quickly filled with speculation. While China's state-run Xinhua News agency attempted to quell rumors by releasing a photograph of Xi laying a wreath at a memorial in Shanxi province on July 7, the tightly framed image lacked context and only deepened the mystery surrounding his absence. Observers also noted that Xi had missed a major constitutional loyalty ceremony in June, an annual event that is typically attended by more than 50 top ministers and party leaders. The absence from such a high-profile event, in the carefully choreographed world of Chinese elite politics, is highly unusual and suggests that something significant may be occurring behind the scenes. The sudden disappearance of key allies within the military and government has further intensified the speculation. Over the past year, several of Xi's closest associates have been abruptly removed from their positions or have vanished from public view altogether. The dismissal of Defence Minister Li Shangfu and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, without any official explanation, has raised serious questions about the stability of the leadership and the potential for internal power struggles. Similarly, the removal of military generals such as Wei Fenghe, the reported death of Xu Qiliang, and the disappearance of key figures like He Weidong have fueled rumors of a wide-ranging purge within the ranks of the People's Liberation Army. Some analysts believe that these events are a sign of Xi Jinping consolidating his power even further, eliminating potential rivals and solidifying his control over the party and the military. Others, however, view the purges as a desperate attempt to quell rising discontent and potential challenges to his authority. It is also possible that rival factions within the CCP are attempting to isolate Xi and weaken his position. The reports of corruption within the People's Liberation Army, particularly within the Rocket Force, have also added to the pressure on Xi Jinping. These scandals have caused significant embarrassment for the leadership and have raised concerns about the integrity of the military.
The absence of Xi Jinping and the purges of key officials have inevitably led to speculation about potential successors. Several names have been circulating among China watchers and within elite party circles. Wang Yang, a reformist technocrat who was once considered a potential rival to Xi but was later sidelined, is rumored to be re-emerging as a possible candidate. His reform-minded approach may appeal to those within the party who are concerned about the direction of the economy and the need for greater openness and transparency. General Zhang Youxia, the current vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, has reportedly gained ground, particularly within the military ranks. His strong military background and close ties to the armed forces could make him a powerful contender in any succession battle. The so-called Hu Chunhua faction, which was previously marginalized by Xi's rise to power, appears to be regaining strength. This faction represents a more moderate and pragmatic approach to governance, and its resurgence could indicate a shift in the balance of power within the CCP. These political developments are unfolding against a backdrop of increasing domestic challenges. China's economy is facing significant headwinds, including a stagnant real-estate sector, youth unemployment hovering around 15 per cent, and persistent failures in high-tech industries such as semiconductors. Combined with ongoing trade tensions with the United States and Western sanctions, China's economic outlook is increasingly uncertain. The economic challenges add to the pressure on the leadership and could further destabilize the political landscape. Many senior observers, however, dismiss the speculation about Xi Jinping's absence and the potential for political instability as exaggerated. Some analysts argue that these rumors are part of an annual cycle and that Xi is simply choosing to lie low while global attention is focused on other crises, such as the US-China trade war and tensions between India and Pakistan. This perspective suggests that Xi is employing a strategy of strategic patience, preferring silence and measured action over public confrontation. The Chinese concept of "lie low and move steadily towards your goal" is often cited to support this view. Xi Jinping has long believed in strategic patience and has consistently avoided public displays of anger or frustration. This approach has allowed him to maintain a sense of control and to avoid unnecessary conflicts. However, history offers a cautionary tale. In the opaque world of the CCP, even supreme leaders have been quietly sidelined when they fall out of favor. Their removals are rarely announced publicly; instead, they simply fade from view, replaced, reimagined, or erased from the historical record.
The same system that Xi Jinping has wielded with ruthless precision may now be turning against him. If the party believes that he has become a liability, he could meet the same fate that he has reserved for others. The absence from key events, the quiet elimination of allies, and the rise of rival figures all suggest that a significant shift may be underway at the very top. For now, the CCP remains silent, as it always does in moments of transition. The party's silence is a reflection of the intense political maneuvering that is taking place behind the scenes. The various factions within the CCP are likely vying for power and influence, and the outcome of this struggle will determine the future direction of China. But behind the curtain, the balance of power may already be tilting. The absence of clear information and the lack of transparency make it difficult to predict the future with any certainty. Whether Xi Jinping's absence stems from illness, isolation, or a gradual sidelining by his own system, one thing is clear: China is entering a period of political uncertainty. This uncertainty has implications not only for China's domestic politics but also for its foreign policy and its role in the global economy. The leader who once eliminated rivals may now be surrounded by them. The growing silence from Beijing speaks volumes. In China, such silence often precedes significant change. The world is watching closely, trying to decipher the signals and prepare for the potential consequences of a change in leadership or direction in China. The stability and predictability of China's political system have been key factors in its economic growth and its increasing global influence. Any disruption to this stability could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy and the geopolitical landscape. The next few months will be crucial in determining the future of China and the role of Xi Jinping in shaping that future. The world will be closely monitoring developments in Beijing, looking for any signs of change or instability.
Source: Why Xi Jinping's abrupt absence has sparked global speculation