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The evolving relationship between Turkey and Pakistan, particularly under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, presents a complex challenge for India. Erdogan's vocal support for Pakistan, especially following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam and subsequent condemnation of India's retaliatory actions, highlights a shift in Turkey's foreign policy that cannot be ignored. This alignment extends beyond mere diplomatic gestures; the deployment of Turkish military drones by Pakistan further underscores the deepening strategic partnership between the two nations. The resulting outrage in India, reflected in calls for a boycott of Turkish goods and services, demonstrates the significant impact of Turkey's perceived pro-Pakistan stance on public sentiment. Historically, Turkey has maintained closer ties with Pakistan than with India, a relationship that dates back to the 1950s when both countries were aligned with the United States through defense pacts. However, under previous secular Turkish governments, a more balanced approach was pursued, with efforts made to cultivate independent relations with India despite disagreements on issues such as Cyprus, Armenia, and Kashmir. Erdogan's ascent to power marked a departure from this balanced approach. He adopted a more assertive stance in support of Pakistan, often referring to the country as a 'brotherly' nation. This shift has been accompanied by criticisms of India's treatment of minorities and its actions in Kashmir, particularly following the abrogation of Article 370. Erdogan has used various international platforms, including the UN General Assembly, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and bilateral meetings with Pakistani leaders, to voice his concerns and condemn India's policies. Several factors have contributed to the strengthening of ties between Turkey and Pakistan under Erdogan's leadership. Firstly, Pakistan has emerged as a key ally in Turkey's Islamist project. With many Arab nations remaining skeptical, Pakistan has provided a platform for Turkey to promote its ideas and expand its influence in Central Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Turkey's growing presence in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Malaysia has also been facilitated by its links with the Muslim Brotherhood. However, despite numerous attempts, Turkey has struggled to gain a similar foothold in India. Secondly, the personal chemistry between leaders has played a significant role in fostering closer ties between Turkey and Pakistan. Erdogan enjoyed a close relationship with former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and this goodwill has extended to his successor, Shehbaz Sharif. While there were initial challenges in establishing a similar rapport with Imran Khan, these were soon overcome, leading to the development of a strong bond of brotherhood. The significant Pakistani diaspora residing in Turkey has further strengthened these ties through family connections. Thirdly, Pakistan has become an important economic partner for Turkey, particularly within the military-industrial sector, which is closely linked to the ruling AK Party. Despite Pakistan being a smaller economic partner compared to India, it provides a valuable market for Turkish military hardware and technology. Pakistan's reliance on Chinese military equipment has also allowed it to access Western technology through Turkey, a NATO member connected to the Western weaponry regime. Amidst Turkey's economic challenges, orders from Pakistan for naval ships, fighter aircraft upgrades, military drones, electronic warfare equipment, and joint military exercises have bolstered the relationship between the two countries' new elites. However, while acknowledging the importance of diminishing Pakistan's salience in India's foreign policy considerations, it is crucial to recognize that India's foreign policy should not be solely dictated by a Pakistan-centric perspective. Instead, India must strive to cultivate a relationship with Turkey that is independent and serves its own national interests. Turkey is a rising power with an active diplomatic presence in regional and global affairs, as well as in India's neighborhood. As a member of the G20, Turkey possesses a strong and diverse economy, although it faces certain challenges. Politically, the country is divided between the dominant ruling AK Party and a struggling opposition. Despite these divisions, Erdogan remains a charismatic leader, although his mandate has been shrinking in recent years. India-Turkey relations have significant economic relevance, despite differing political and strategic viewpoints. Two-way trade between the two countries exceeds $10 billion, with investments totaling $480 million. Joint ventures and technology partnerships facilitate supply chains, and Turkish companies are involved in key infrastructure projects in India. While the popular outrage and calls for boycotts on tourism and imports may have a limited impact on the Turkish economy, their sentimental impact could be more significant. An assertive Indian diplomatic response is necessary to counter Turkey's statements in global forums such as the UN, FATF, and IMF, and to expose its hypocrisy within the OIC, where Turkey is a key member of the Kashmir contact group. Turkey, along with China, is increasingly isolated in its support for Pakistan, as the latter's sponsorship of terrorism is widely acknowledged. India's robust military response to Turkish drones has effectively mitigated damage thus far, but continued vigilance and upgrades to India's preparedness are essential given the capabilities of these drones. In a past instance, India canceled a contract with a Turkish shipyard for the construction of fleet support ships for the Indian Navy, opting instead to develop indigenous capacity. Similarly, projects of strategic importance will be carefully evaluated, especially as long as Turkey continues to echo Pakistan's rhetoric. Economic and infrastructure collaborations will be assessed based on their efficiency and contribution to India's development objectives. Turkey's stance during the recent terrorist attack by Pakistan has exposed its vulnerabilities. India can prevent similar missteps by engaging with Turkey independently, prioritizing its own national interests and its role in global affairs. The path forward requires a nuanced and strategic approach that balances the need to address Turkey's pro-Pakistan bias with the imperative to maintain a productive and mutually beneficial relationship. This includes strengthening economic ties, engaging in frank and open dialogue on areas of disagreement, and leveraging India's diplomatic influence to counter Turkey's negative statements on international platforms. By pursuing a proactive and independent foreign policy, India can navigate the complexities of the India-Turkey relationship and ensure that its national interests are safeguarded.
Source: Erdogan’s Pakistan tilt is clear but India has to be smart and strategic