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The launch of the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) marks a significant advancement in India's meteorological capabilities, positioning the nation at the forefront of weather prediction technology. Operating on a 6-kilometer grid, the BFS is currently the world's highest-resolution weather model, promising to deliver unprecedented accuracy and granularity in forecasts, especially for localized weather patterns. This development is particularly crucial given the increasing impact of weather anomalies on various sectors of the Indian economy, most notably agriculture and food security. The BFS represents a substantial investment in self-reliance, allowing India to reduce its dependence on foreign weather models and tailor predictions to its unique geographical and climatic conditions. The system's high resolution allows for more precise forecasts at the panchayat level, which is essential for effective disaster risk reduction, improved agricultural practices, efficient water resource management, and enhanced public safety. The ability to predict localized weather events with greater accuracy will enable farmers to make informed decisions about planting, irrigation, and harvesting, minimizing crop losses due to unexpected weather fluctuations. Furthermore, accurate forecasts can help local authorities prepare for and respond to natural disasters such as floods, droughts, and cyclones, thereby mitigating their impact on vulnerable communities. The development of the BFS was made possible by the installation of Arka, a new supercomputer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). Arka boasts an impressive computational capacity of 11.77 petaflops and a storage capacity of 33 petabytes, significantly enhancing India's data processing capabilities in the field of meteorology. According to Parthasarathy Mukhopadhyay, the speed at which Arka processes data has dramatically improved compared to its predecessor, Pratyush. Where Pratyush took up to 10 hours to run the forecasting model, Arka completes the same task in just four hours, allowing for more frequent and timely updates of weather forecasts. This enhanced processing speed is critical for generating nowcasts – short-term forecasts for the next two hours – which are essential for providing real-time information and warnings to the public and emergency services. Union Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh officially dedicated the Bharat Forecasting System to the nation at a function in New Delhi, highlighting the government's commitment to investing in scientific infrastructure and promoting technological innovation. The BFS will leverage a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars across India to generate highly localized forecasts. According to M. Ravichandran, the BFS provides insight into weather events likely to take place in a grid of 6 km by 6 km, a significant improvement over the earlier models that gave predictions for a 12 km grid. The government plans to increase the number of Doppler radars to 100, which would allow the weather office to issue nowcasts for the entire country, providing comprehensive real-time weather information to all regions of India. The system offers high-resolution forecasts for the tropical region between 30 degrees South and 30 degrees North latitudes, encompassing the Indian mainland, which spans from 8.4 degrees to 37.6 degrees North. In comparison, the global forecast models run by European, British, and US weather offices operate at resolutions ranging from 9 km to 14 km, underscoring the superior resolution of the BFS.
The implementation of the Bharat Forecasting System arrives at a particularly crucial time, as weather anomalies are increasingly influencing India's economy, particularly in the form of sticky food inflation. The government's latest Economic Survey highlights the significant role that frequent extreme weather events over the past two years have played in driving up food prices. Data from the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), cited in the report, indicates that the total crop area damaged in 2024 due to extreme weather was higher than in previous years. India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, as reported by the Economic Times, reveals a notable increase in the frequency of such events. Between 2022 and 2024, heatwaves were recorded on 18 per cent of days, a sharp rise from 5 per cent during 2020 and 2021. This increase in extreme weather events underscores the urgent need for improved weather forecasting and adaptation strategies. The Economic Survey recommends developing climate-resilient crops, improving data systems, and reducing both crop damage and post-harvest losses to achieve long-term price stability. These measures are essential for mitigating the impact of weather anomalies on food production and ensuring food security for the nation. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its monthly bulletin, has also flagged the impact of weather anomalies on vegetable prices, noting that temperature anomalies have increased, prompting the need for temperature-resistant crop varieties. The RBI's concerns reflect the broader economic implications of climate change and the need for proactive measures to adapt to changing weather patterns. Despite these concerns, the bulletin notes that the inflation outlook has improved, with food inflation declining more than expected. However, weather-related and global risks continue to pose challenges, highlighting the importance of continued vigilance and adaptation efforts. The BFS is expected to play a critical role in mitigating these risks by providing accurate and timely information to farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders. The system's high resolution and advanced forecasting capabilities will enable more effective planning and decision-making, reducing the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to weather-related shocks. The successful implementation of the BFS will require close collaboration between various government agencies, research institutions, and the private sector. It will also be essential to invest in training and capacity building to ensure that the system is used effectively and that its benefits reach all segments of society.
The Bharat Forecasting System not only enhances India's weather prediction capabilities but also contributes to global efforts in climate monitoring and forecasting. The data generated by the BFS can be shared with international research organizations, contributing to a better understanding of global climate patterns and trends. This collaboration is essential for addressing the challenges of climate change and developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. The development of climate-resilient crops, as recommended by the Economic Survey, is a crucial step in adapting to changing weather patterns. These crops are designed to withstand extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, ensuring food security even in the face of climate change. The implementation of improved data systems is also essential for effective weather forecasting and disaster management. These systems should be able to collect, process, and analyze large amounts of data from various sources, including weather stations, satellites, and radar networks. The data should be easily accessible to policymakers, farmers, and other stakeholders, enabling them to make informed decisions based on the latest weather information. Reducing crop damage and post-harvest losses is another critical step in achieving long-term price stability. This can be achieved through improved agricultural practices, such as the use of drought-resistant crops, efficient irrigation techniques, and effective pest and disease management. Post-harvest losses can be reduced through improved storage and transportation infrastructure, ensuring that crops reach consumers in good condition. The Reserve Bank of India's emphasis on temperature-resistant crop varieties underscores the need for agricultural innovation to adapt to changing weather patterns. These varieties are designed to withstand high temperatures and water stress, ensuring stable yields even in hot and dry conditions. The success of the BFS will depend on the effective integration of various technologies and strategies, including advanced weather modeling, climate-resilient crops, improved data systems, and reduced crop losses. By investing in these areas, India can enhance its resilience to climate change and ensure food security for its growing population. The Bharat Forecasting System represents a significant step forward in India's efforts to address the challenges of climate change and promote sustainable development. By providing accurate and timely weather information, the system will enable better planning and decision-making across various sectors, contributing to a more resilient and prosperous future for the nation.
Beyond the immediate benefits for agriculture and disaster management, the Bharat Forecasting System has the potential to revolutionize other sectors of the Indian economy. For instance, the transportation sector can benefit from improved weather forecasts, enabling airlines, railways, and road transport operators to make informed decisions about scheduling and routing, reducing delays and improving safety. The energy sector can also benefit from accurate weather predictions, allowing for better management of renewable energy resources such as solar and wind power. The tourism industry can use weather forecasts to plan events and activities, ensuring that tourists have a positive experience. The health sector can use weather predictions to anticipate and prepare for outbreaks of weather-sensitive diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever. The implementation of the BFS also has significant implications for urban planning and infrastructure development. Accurate weather forecasts can help urban planners design buildings and infrastructure that are more resilient to extreme weather events, reducing the risk of damage and disruption. The system can also be used to improve water management in urban areas, ensuring that water resources are used efficiently and effectively. The BFS is not just a technological advancement; it is also a tool for empowering communities and promoting sustainable development. By providing access to accurate and timely weather information, the system can help individuals and communities make informed decisions about their lives and livelihoods. For example, farmers can use weather forecasts to plan their planting and harvesting schedules, reducing the risk of crop losses. Fishermen can use weather forecasts to plan their fishing trips, ensuring their safety at sea. Communities can use weather forecasts to prepare for natural disasters, such as floods and cyclones, reducing the risk of injury and death. The Bharat Forecasting System is a valuable asset for India, providing a foundation for sustainable development and building a more resilient and prosperous nation. By investing in weather forecasting technology, India is demonstrating its commitment to addressing the challenges of climate change and ensuring a better future for all its citizens. The ongoing development and refinement of the BFS will be crucial to maximizing its potential and ensuring that it continues to provide accurate and reliable weather information for years to come. This requires continued investment in research and development, as well as close collaboration between government agencies, research institutions, and the private sector. The Bharat Forecasting System is a testament to India's scientific capabilities and its commitment to technological innovation. It is a powerful tool for building a more resilient and sustainable future for the nation.
Source: Bharat Forecast System: India launches world's most precise weather model to improve predictions