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The Meteorological Department in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has issued a weather forecast predicting a two-day period of rain and snow, commencing on February 19th and extending into the late afternoon of February 20th. This prediction comes amidst an ongoing rainfall deficit in the region, making this upcoming wet spell a significant event for the local environment and population. The primary cause of this anticipated weather event is a fresh Western Disturbance, a weather system originating from the Mediterranean region, which is projected to impact the Union Territory. The Director of Meteorology, Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad, has confirmed the impending arrival of this weather system, emphasizing the likelihood of light to moderate rain and snow across various locations within J&K.
Dr. Ahmad's forecast details the expected precipitation across different regions. The plains of Kashmir and Jammu are anticipated to experience light to moderate rainfall, possibly accompanied by thunder and gusty winds. However, the higher altitudes will experience considerably heavier snowfall. The Chenab Valley and South Kashmir are predicted to receive moderate snowfall accumulating up to 10 inches, while the northern and central Kashmir regions at higher elevations may see up to 8 inches of snowfall. This disparity in snowfall accumulation highlights the impact of elevation on precipitation patterns during Western Disturbance events. Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif Keng corroborates this forecast, indicating that the Western Disturbance will develop over Afghanistan before moving towards J&K, bringing widespread rain and snow.
Keng's forecast provides additional detail on the timing and intensity of the precipitation. He suggests that the first signs of the disturbance will be noticeable in the higher elevations late on the night of February 19th, with precipitation increasing in intensity as it spreads across the region. The forecast indicates that most parts of J&K will likely experience moderate rain or snow, but some areas may encounter heavy precipitation. Keng points out that the Jammu region might experience more precipitation compared to the Kashmir Valley, with the Chenab Valley districts (Ramban, Kishtwar, and Doda) anticipated to receive moderate to heavy precipitation. He further highlights the possibility of a temperature drop in the Kashmir Valley plains, potentially causing rain to transition to snowfall, especially under prolonged heavy precipitation. This transition underscores the dynamic nature of the weather system and its impact on different geographical locations.
Temperature fluctuations are also a key aspect of this forecast. The temperature is expected to range between 15°C and 18°C on February 19th, but a significant drop is anticipated on February 20th, with temperatures likely falling below 7°C. This drop in temperature will likely enhance the snowfall, particularly in higher elevation areas such as the Pir Panjal range, impacting areas like Gulmarg, Sinthan Top, Peer Ki Gali, and other parts of the Mughal Road. These areas are known for their susceptibility to heavy snowfall during Western Disturbances. Furthermore, the forecast cautions about the possibility of lightning and thundershowers, especially in the Jammu region on February 20th, due to the higher temperatures. This combination of snow, rain, and potential thunderstorms highlights the complexity of the approaching weather system.
The forecast also includes warnings regarding potential hazards associated with the heavy snowfall and rain. There is a significant risk of shooting stones and landslides on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway on February 20th, owing to the heavy precipitation and potential soil instability in the mountainous terrain. This necessitates caution and preparedness measures for travelers and local authorities. The predicted improvement in weather conditions from February 21st onward offers some relief, suggesting that the impact of the Western Disturbance will be relatively short-lived. Overall, the forecast highlights the importance of monitoring weather updates closely and taking necessary precautions to ensure safety during the predicted period of heavy rain and snow across Jammu and Kashmir.
The implications of this weather event extend beyond immediate inconvenience. The impact on agriculture, transportation, and daily life in J&K is significant. The heavy snowfall in mountainous regions could potentially disrupt transportation networks, isolating communities and impacting the supply of essential goods. Agricultural activities might also be affected by the heavy precipitation and potential flooding. Moreover, the predicted landslides and shooting stones on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway pose a serious risk to road users. The authorities will likely need to implement traffic management measures and ensure the safety of travelers during this period. The ongoing rainfall deficit also adds another layer of complexity. While this weather event will provide some much-needed precipitation, the long-term impact on water resources will depend on the overall volume of snowfall and rainfall.
In conclusion, the forecast for a two-day period of rain and snow in J&K, caused by an approaching Western Disturbance, presents a significant weather event with potential implications for various aspects of life in the region. The forecast highlights the need for preparedness, emphasizing potential hazards such as landslides and disruption to transportation networks. While the precipitation will alleviate the ongoing rainfall deficit, the authorities and the public will need to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions to mitigate the potential risks associated with this weather event. Continuous monitoring of weather updates and adherence to safety guidelines are crucial for ensuring the well-being of the population throughout this period.
Source: Two-Day Rain and Snow Predicted in J&K Due to New Western Disturbance