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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported the formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal and the adjoining east Equatorial Indian Ocean. This meteorological event, observed on Saturday morning, is projected to intensify and move west-northwestward, becoming more defined by Sunday. The IMD's forecast tracks this system's trajectory over the next four days, predicting its westward movement towards the southwest Bay of Bengal, off the coasts of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu, by Wednesday. While the IMD hasn't explicitly stated whether this low-pressure area will develop into a more intense cyclonic system, the potential for significant rainfall is undeniable, given the predicted intensification and movement.
The impending weather system presents a considerable risk of heavy rainfall across several Indian states. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are expected to experience widespread light to moderate rain, with isolated instances of heavy rainfall anticipated from Tuesday to Friday. The intensity is particularly concerning for coastal Tamil Nadu, where very heavy rain is forecast for Thursday. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam can also expect light to moderate rain with isolated heavy rainfall events on Wednesday and Thursday. Similarly, Kerala and Mahe are included in the forecast, with predictions of light to moderate rainfall in many areas, and heavier downpours in isolated locations from Wednesday to Friday. The potential for substantial flooding and disruption to daily life is a serious concern, demanding proactive measures from local authorities and preparedness from residents in affected areas.
In response to the developing weather situation, the IMD has issued a warning to fishermen advising them to avoid venturing into specific areas of the Bay of Bengal. The advisory prohibits fishing activities in the southeast Bay from Saturday to Wednesday, the southwest Bay from Monday to Thursday, and the west-central Bay on Wednesday and Thursday. This precaution is vital to ensure the safety of fishing communities given the potential for rough seas and hazardous weather conditions associated with the low-pressure system. This is not an isolated weather event; concurrently, a western disturbance, identified as a trough over central Pakistan, is making its way towards Northwest India. This system is expected to bring moisture and clouds into the region, initiating light to moderate rain and snowfall over the hills from Sunday to Wednesday. The plains of Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh are predicted to experience light rain on Sunday and Monday.
The interaction between the western disturbance and the Bay of Bengal low-pressure system will have a complex impact on weather patterns across India. The western disturbance's influence will likely disperse dense fog in parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura by Monday. Ironically, this same system will then contribute to the return of dense fog in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Jharkhand from Sunday to Tuesday; Uttar Pradesh from Monday to Thursday; the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim until Tuesday; and Himachal Pradesh from Tuesday to Thursday. The westerlies associated with the western disturbance will also affect the northern flanks of the rain system headed for the Tamil Nadu coast, but the extent of their influence on the overall rainfall remains to be seen. Adding another layer of complexity, the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests a subsequent wave of rain might be on its way to the Tamil Nadu coast by December 15. This prediction underscores the need for continued monitoring and vigilance in the days ahead.
The convergence of these two distinct weather systems highlights the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of India's monsoon season, even outside the peak months. The impact of the low-pressure system and the western disturbance will likely necessitate substantial resources for disaster management and relief efforts in affected states. The potential for widespread flooding, disruptions to transportation networks, and agricultural losses warrants a robust and coordinated response from all relevant agencies. Precise forecasting, effective communication to the public, and preemptive evacuation strategies are crucial to mitigate potential losses and safeguard lives. This complex weather event serves as a stark reminder of the importance of sustained investment in weather forecasting technologies and the crucial role of public awareness campaigns in building resilience to extreme weather phenomena. The ongoing monitoring of both the Bay of Bengal low-pressure system and the western disturbance is paramount for accurate and timely updates as the situation evolves.
Source: Low-pressure area forms over Bay of Bengal, may become more ‘marked’