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The upcoming state assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the first in over a decade, are set to take place amidst a dramatically altered political landscape. The region has witnessed significant transformations since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, leading to a complex electoral scenario. Separatist leaders, who once advocated for election boycotts, are now seeking to participate, posing a significant challenge to mainstream leaders across various constituencies.
The entry of five independent candidates backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which has ended its 30-year election boycott, and separatist leaders, including popular cleric Sarjan Barkati, highlights a notable shift in the political dynamics. The National Conference (NC) vice president, Omar Abdullah, has accused the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of encouraging independent candidates to divide the vote. He urged voters to remain cautious, fearing a strategy to dilute the mandate and silence secular voices. To counter the BJP's influence, the Congress and the NC have joined forces under the INDIA bloc banner.
The People's Democratic Party (PDP), which previously formed a coalition government with the BJP, is facing substantial challenges, particularly from former members of the banned JeI. Many political analysts and experts perceive the electoral process as a 'futile' exercise, highlighting the limited power of the assembly. They argue that even if regional parties manage to form a government, the majority of authority will remain with the Governor, who operates under directives from New Delhi.
The Union home affairs ministry's amendment to the Transaction of Business Rules, expanding the Lieutenant Governor's (LG) administrative powers, has further underscored this power imbalance. The LG now holds ultimate control over All India Services and senior bureaucracy in the Union Territory, with key institutions like the Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Forensic Science Laboratory coming under their jurisdiction. The LG's authority extends to appointments, prosecution sanctions, and filing appeals, further limiting the assembly's influence.
Despite this diminished role, a professor at the Islamic University of Science and Technology Kashmir argues that the assembly's presence remains essential for maintaining some balance within the administration. The abrogation of Article 370 has led to a bureaucratic hegemony, creating a disconnect between the public and the government. The assembly, even with limited power, provides a platform for public accountability and serves as a check on bureaucratic dominance.
In South Kashmir, the PDP's campaign is led by Mehbooba Mufti's daughter, Iltija Mufti, making her political debut in the family stronghold of Bijbehara. Mehbooba, citing the diminished power of the assembly, has opted out of this election. The PDP's past alliance with the BJP, coupled with Mehbooba's defence of the 2016 civilian killings, has left the party in a precarious position. The presence of former Jamaat-e-Islami members running as independent candidates further complicates the PDP's electoral prospects, particularly in areas with a strong JeI base.
In North Kashmir, Sajad Lone's People's Conference (PC) enjoyed a dominant position in the previous assembly election. However, the emergence of the AIP, led by jailed president Engineer Rashid, has shaken up the political landscape. Rashid's prolonged detention has seemingly bolstered his party's support base. Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh, Rashid's brother, is contesting the elections, hoping to replicate Rashid's success. While Geelani downplays the likelihood of a repeat victory for the AIP, he acknowledges the party's appeal to new voters and former Congress members.
The BJP, despite internal challenges, is expected to secure the most seats in Jammu, a region considered a BJP stronghold. The resignation of several key figures after the party's ticket distribution, coupled with recent militant attacks, presents a formidable challenge to the BJP's campaign. The resurgence of terrorism in the Jammu region, including targeted killings and IED blasts, has raised concerns about public safety and potentially influencing voter sentiment.
The BJP faces internal conflicts with rebel leaders contesting as independents in key constituencies. This, combined with a lack of coordination within the INDIA bloc, could benefit the BJP. Despite these challenges, the BJP's grant of ST status to Paharis has generated pro-BJP sentiment among that community. However, this move has also caused resentment among Gujjars. The Congress, after a dismal performance in the 2014 assembly elections, is aiming for a stronger showing this time, leveraging the INDIA bloc alliance and seeking to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment.
Source: The changing landscape of Jammu and Kashmir politics