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The upcoming assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the first since the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A in 2019, are crucial for all political parties. The National Conference aims to prove its enduring relevance, while the PDP seeks to demonstrate continued support despite its 2014 alliance with the BJP. The BJP, facing challenges in fielding candidates in the Valley, hopes to capitalize on the sentiment for a 'New Kashmir' focused on development. Notably, four members of the banned Jamat are considering contesting as independents, adding to the complex political landscape.
The BJP, planning to contest 60-70 seats and backing independent candidates in the Valley, is relying heavily on Engineer Rashid, a former J&K government employee imprisoned in Tihar Jail. Rashid’s significant victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Baramulla, where he received over 472,000 votes, has propelled him to a prominent position in this election. His Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) is expected to field 35-40 candidates, primarily in North and Central Kashmir.
The BJP believes that Engineer Rashid's brand of politics, which appeals to voters in North Kashmir, will fragment the vote between the AIP, the National Conference-Congress alliance, and the PDP. This strategy aims to reduce the overall vote share of the traditional parties, potentially leading to a hung assembly. The BJP then plans to leverage the situation to form a post-poll alliance or, if necessary, repeat President’s Rule.
Engineer Rashid’s party maintains that it is the true representative of anti-BJP sentiment in the Valley, highlighting the past alliances of both the National Conference and PDP with the BJP. The AIP believes its anti-establishment stance resonates with Kashmiris who are seeking a new political option. The article argues that a successful AIP performance in North and Central Kashmir, particularly in the districts of Kupwara, Bandipora, Baramulla, Srinagar, Bugdam, and Ganderbal, would significantly weaken the traditional parties and potentially pave the way for a BJP-led government in the state.