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The article highlights the potential geopolitical consequences of US tariff policies under President Donald Trump, particularly concerning India's relationship with Russia and China. Former National Security Advisor John Bolton, speaking to CNN, expressed concern that Trump's tariffs on India, intended to penalize the country for purchasing Russian oil and protect US industries, could inadvertently drive India closer to both Russia and China. This unintended consequence, according to Bolton, would undermine decades of US efforts to cultivate a strong relationship with India and encourage it to distance itself from its historical ties with Russia and its geographically imposed proximity, and increasingly competitive relationship, with China. Bolton's warning underscores the complex and often unpredictable nature of international trade policy, especially when intertwined with geopolitical strategies. The imposition of tariffs, while intended to achieve specific economic or political goals, can have far-reaching repercussions that affect alliances, trade relationships, and the overall balance of power. In this instance, the perceived disparity in treatment between India and China, with China potentially facing more lenient trade measures despite its larger economy and arguably more assertive foreign policy, is particularly problematic. This discrepancy could fuel resentment in India and create an incentive for it to align more closely with countries that offer more favorable economic terms or share a sense of grievance against US trade policies. The article also points to the internal debate within the Trump administration regarding the rationale behind the tariffs. While some officials, like White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro, justify the tariffs on India as a response to its continued purchase of Russian oil, others, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, suggest a willingness to be more flexible with China if negotiations show progress. This lack of a consistent and coherent trade strategy further complicates the situation and adds to the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. The potential consequences of pushing India closer to Russia and China are significant. A stronger alliance between these three countries could challenge US influence in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the context of China's growing economic and military power. It could also undermine efforts to contain Russia's aggression in Ukraine, as India's continued purchase of Russian oil provides a vital source of revenue for the Russian government. The sectors within India likely to be most affected by the tariffs, including textiles, gems and jewelry, and machinery, represent a significant portion of the Indian economy. The imposition of these tariffs could therefore have a negative impact on Indian growth and employment, further exacerbating the economic and political challenges facing the country. In conclusion, the article raises serious concerns about the potential unintended consequences of US tariff policies on India's relationship with Russia and China. The tariffs, intended to achieve specific economic or political goals, could inadvertently undermine US strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region and create a more challenging geopolitical landscape. A more nuanced and strategic approach to trade policy, one that takes into account the complex geopolitical dynamics and the potential for unintended consequences, is needed to ensure that US trade policies serve the country's long-term interests. Furthermore, the article implicitly highlights the importance of consistent and predictable policy-making in international relations. When policy appears arbitrary or reactive, it becomes much harder for other nations to trust the policy maker, which decreases the chances of the policy achieving its aims. In this case, the tariffs and apparent different policies for India and China raise questions about US commitment to a rules-based international order and weakens the ability of the US to lead. The issues also affect the relationship with India since tariffs impact a large range of sectors. The article also makes implicit claims that the US tariff policies are not necessarily focused on any objective metric such as fairness or global competition but rather on specific goals. This can be problematic in the sense that there are no shared goals in place with India for resolving the situation. More negotiation and transparency would be desirable. Finally, the article points to a larger problem that involves the intersection of trade and security policy. The US wants to limit the Russian income flow by restricting the purchase of oil; however, the use of trade as an effective weapon or tool creates the possibility of damaging trade relations. Therefore, an optimal solution must take into account trade, security, and foreign policy goals in order to achieve a coherent response to the international situation.
Source: ‘Trump's India tariffs will push New Delhi closer to Moscow and Beijing,’ warns former US NSA