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The recent assertion by former US President Donald Trump regarding a potential deal to assist Pakistan in developing 'massive' oil reserves, with the possibility of exporting oil to India, has been met with considerable skepticism and even mockery. This claim, made on Truth Social, has been widely scrutinized, particularly in light of Pakistan's current standing in the global oil market. Harsh Goenka, chairman of RPG Enterprises, succinctly captured the prevailing sentiment by comparing the likelihood of Pakistan selling oil to India to a tailender hitting a triple century in a T20 match or something more likely to happen in the movie Lagaan, highlighting the perceived unlikelihood of such a scenario. Goenka's comparison to the film Lagaan, a fictional tale of underdogs achieving the impossible, underscores the incredulity surrounding Trump's pronouncements. This comparison immediately sets a tone of deep skepticism given that Lagaan is a work of fiction. The very suggestion that the scenario is more probable in a film setting rather than in reality reveals the extent of disbelief regarding the claim.
The core of the issue lies in the stark reality of Pakistan's oil reserves. Numerous reports and analyses paint a picture far removed from the notion of 'massive' reserves. According to a report by the Times of India, Pakistan possesses a mere 0.02% of the world's crude oil deposits. Furthermore, Pakistan's daily oil production hovers around 70,000 barrels, less than 10% of India's output. These figures clearly indicate that Pakistan is not currently positioned as a significant player in the global oil market, let alone a potential exporter of oil to a major consumer like India. Reuters corroborates this view, stating that Pakistan holds proven crude oil reserves of between 234 million and 353 million barrels, placing it around the 50th position globally. In comparison, Venezuela boasts the world's largest crude oil reserves, with over 303 billion barrels. This massive difference in reserves underscores the scale of the discrepancy between Trump's claims and the actual situation on the ground. To further highlight the disparity, India's known crude oil reserves as of 2024 are estimated to be around 4.8 to 4.9 billion barrels, exceeding Pakistan's reserves by more than tenfold. This comparison starkly illustrates the improbability of Pakistan becoming a significant oil exporter to India in the foreseeable future.
While Pakistan has, on occasion, alluded to substantial oil and natural gas reserves along its coastline, these claims have yet to be substantiated by successful extraction. The country has consistently sought foreign investment to develop these potential resources, but progress has been limited. Last year, the announcement of potentially significant oil and natural gas reserves within its maritime territory raised hopes, suggesting a transformative impact on Pakistan's economic prospects. This announcement followed a three-year underwater survey, supported by an unnamed 'friendly country,' which identified geological structures indicating possible oil and gas deposits. However, these findings remain preliminary and lack verification. No commercial drilling activities have been undertaken to validate the survey results, leaving the actual presence, volume, and quality of these resources unconfirmed. The structural geology of the Indus Basin, characterized by tectonic activity and rich mudstone deposits, does indeed create suitable conditions for hydrocarbon formation. Seismic data analysis reveals significant source rocks and potential reservoirs. Yet, despite these promising geological features, Pakistan has not achieved successful extraction in its offshore regions. Previous exploration efforts, including the Kekra-1 drilling operation, have not yielded positive results.
Currently, Pakistan relies heavily on imports from Middle Eastern countries to meet its petroleum requirements. The country's oil import bill for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, is projected to be $11.3 billion, representing its highest import expenditure. Central bank data indicates that petroleum imports account for approximately 20% of Pakistan's overall import costs. This dependence on imports further underscores the country's current position as a net importer of oil, rather than a potential exporter. Therefore, Trump's claim about Pakistan selling oil to India appears to be based on an overly optimistic, and potentially misinformed, assessment of the situation. It is also pertinent to note the timing and context of Trump's statements. The US-Pakistan deal, which includes a 19% tariff on Pakistan's exports to the US, comes at a time when India-US trade negotiations appear to have stalled. Trump has announced a 25% tariff on India, effective August 7, 2025, and has also indicated potential penalties for India's continued imports of Russian oil and defense equipment. These developments suggest a complex interplay of economic and geopolitical factors, with Trump's pronouncements about Pakistan potentially serving multiple purposes, including exerting pressure on India in trade negotiations.
The US administration has, in the past, voiced concerns about India's reliance on Russian oil imports, labeling them as an 'irritant' in the relationship. Therefore, Trump's suggestion of Pakistan potentially becoming an alternative oil supplier to India could be interpreted as an attempt to diversify India's energy sources and reduce its dependence on Russia. However, given the stark reality of Pakistan's oil reserves and production capacity, this suggestion appears unrealistic at best. It is more likely that Trump's statement is intended to create leverage in trade negotiations with both India and Pakistan. By offering the prospect of US assistance in developing Pakistan's oil reserves, Trump could be seeking to extract concessions from Pakistan in other areas. Similarly, by suggesting that Pakistan could potentially sell oil to India, Trump could be aiming to pressure India to address US concerns regarding trade imbalances and imports from Russia. In conclusion, Trump's assertion about assisting Pakistan in building massive oil reserves for potential exports to India is a highly improbable scenario, given the current realities of Pakistan's oil reserves and production. The statement appears to be driven by a combination of factors, including a potentially misinformed assessment of the situation, a desire to exert leverage in trade negotiations with both India and Pakistan, and an attempt to diversify India's energy sources. However, the likelihood of Pakistan becoming a significant oil exporter to India in the foreseeable future remains exceedingly low, making the suggestion appear more like a political maneuver than a realistic economic prospect. The focus should therefore shift from the possibility of Pakistan selling oil to India, and towards addressing Pakistan's current economic vulnerabilities and its reliance on oil imports.