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In the ever-shifting landscape of Washington D.C., where political tides ebb and flow with each administration, a new paradigm has emerged, particularly during the Trump era, placing significant emphasis on personal connections and behind-the-scenes strategists. Traditional party allegiances, once the cornerstone of international relations and influence-peddling, have taken a backseat to the power of individuals with direct access to the highest echelons of power. This is especially evident in the intricate dance between the United States, India, and Pakistan, where the fortunes of these nations have become intertwined with the influence of two key figures: Jason Miller and Keith Schiller, often referred to as ‘Trump whisperers.’ Their access, strategies, and ability to navigate the complexities of the Trump administration could profoundly shape tariff policies, diplomatic gestures, and the overall balance of goodwill in the South Asian region, showcasing a departure from conventional diplomatic practices. The dynamic between Miller and Schiller exemplifies how personal relationships and strategic influence can surpass formal negotiations in shaping US foreign policy under a leader known for prioritizing personal rapport. This shift raises significant questions about transparency, accountability, and the long-term implications for international relations, particularly in strategically important regions like South Asia.
The contrasting backgrounds and approaches of Jason Miller and Keith Schiller highlight the evolving nature of lobbying and influence peddling in Washington. On one hand, Jason Miller embodies the archetype of the seasoned political operative. With deep-seated roots in the Republican party and a prominent role in both Trump's 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, Miller brings a wealth of political acumen and strategic insight to the table. India, recognizing his expertise and connections, engaged Miller's firm, SHW Partners, in a substantial $1.8 million contract. The mandate was clear: to provide strategic guidance and manage relations with Congress and other key stakeholders. This signifies a conventional approach, leveraging political connections and established networks to advance India's interests within the US political system. On the other hand, Keith Schiller represents a different breed of influencer. His influence stems not from political experience or academic credentials but from an unwavering personal loyalty to Donald Trump. As a former NYPD detective and Trump's trusted bodyguard for over two decades, Schiller has cultivated a level of personal access that is arguably unmatched. His firm, Javelin Associates, works for Pakistan under a contract significantly smaller than Miller's, with a monthly fee of $50,000. However, the perception is that his direct line to the president, cultivated over years of personal service, holds considerable sway. The juxtaposition of Miller's political expertise and Schiller's personal connection raises critical questions about the relative effectiveness of different lobbying strategies in the Trump era. The recent disputes over tariffs and diplomatic overtures offer a glimpse into how these contrasting approaches are playing out in real-time.
The recent tariff dispute between the United States, India, and Pakistan serves as a compelling case study of the diverging fortunes of the two nations under the influence of Miller and Schiller. Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, received a rare invitation to a White House luncheon, a gesture widely interpreted as a significant diplomatic victory for Pakistan. This invitation suggests a warming of relations and a potential shift in US policy towards the country. Conversely, India faced a significant setback with the imposition of a 50% tariff and penalty on continued purchases of Russian oil, a point of contention publicly criticized by Trump's top aides, including Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. This stark contrast in treatment has understandably raised concerns in New Delhi, fueling speculation about the effectiveness of India's lobbying efforts compared to Pakistan's. The disparity in tariff rates, with Pakistan maintaining a much lower 19% rate, further underscores the perceived advantage that Pakistan holds in the current US political climate. While insiders caution that Trump's decisions remain unpredictable and ultimately driven by what he perceives as America's best interests, the optics suggest that Schiller's personal access to the President may be carrying more weight than Miller's political expertise. This perception is further reinforced by the fact that Miller, despite being considered for a White House communications director position, is not currently part of Trump's inner circle.
Beyond the realm of traditional lobbying, the article highlights the importance of personal diplomacy in cultivating favor with Donald Trump. Trump's preference for direct calls, private meetings, and rounds of golf underscores the value he places on personal rapport and face-to-face interactions. The examples of Japan's Shinzo Abe and South Korea's Yoon Suk Yeol, who actively cultivated relationships with Trump through shared activities like golf, illustrate the effectiveness of this approach. In contrast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to decline a White House invitation on the very day Pakistan's army chief was hosted was interpreted as a deliberate act of distancing, potentially contributing to India's perceived frosty treatment on tariffs and energy policy. This highlights a potential disconnect between Modi's more traditional diplomatic style and Trump's preference for personal engagement. The Prime Minister's tough stance on tariffs and Russian oil, coupled with a less hands-on approach to direct engagement with Trump, has reportedly ruffled feathers within the Trump administration. One Indian diplomat explained that Modi prefers to delegate tariff negotiations to his team, but this traditional method appears to be at odds with Trump's more personal, and often ego-driven, style of diplomacy. The willingness to engage on a personal level and cultivate a sense of camaraderie appears to be a key factor in influencing Trump's decision-making.
The escalating costs and mixed results of lobbying efforts in Washington underscore the complexities and uncertainties of influencing policy in the Trump era. As countries pour vast sums of money into lobbying contracts, the returns on investment are often unpredictable and inconsistent. Thirty countries hired new lobbyists specifically to navigate Trump's trade agenda this year, and Pakistan alone brought on seven firms, with Schiller's team credited for helping to soften tariff rates. While India's substantial investment in Miller's firm has yet to yield similar dividends, the article emphasizes that diplomatic wins often depend on a leader's ability to engage Trump directly, not just their hired hands. Both Miller and Schiller possess different strengths: Miller offers political acumen and message discipline, while Schiller provides personal trust and access. However, the outcomes of their efforts remain contingent on a multitude of factors, including Trump's personal preferences and his perception of America's best interests. The broader reality is that dozens of countries have poured millions into lobbying Washington since Trump's return, from economic heavyweights like Japan to smaller players like Ecuador, often with mixed or negligible results. Switzerland's president flew in to plead against a 39% tariff but left with little more than a handshake from a non-trade official, illustrating the challenges of influencing policy even at the highest levels.
The shift in the Washington political landscape, characterized by a disruption of traditional influence models, has significant implications for international relations and diplomacy. Mukesh Aghi, CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, aptly observed that the current leadership in Washington seems to be disrupting the traditional way of doing things. He noted that it's not just about business; it's about diplomacy and dealing with other nations, and that the old model of trying to influence policy simply doesn't seem to work as effectively as it once did. This disruption requires countries to adapt their strategies and embrace new approaches to engaging with the US government. The stakes go far beyond tariffs; in a Washington where access is currency, the competition between Miller and Schiller could quietly shape not just trade flows but the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia itself. The ability to navigate the complexities of the Trump administration, build personal relationships, and understand the President's priorities has become paramount for countries seeking to advance their interests in the United States. As the battle for influence continues, the long-term consequences of this shift in the Washington political landscape remain to be seen.
The article underscores the notion that while Trump ultimately makes decisions based on what he perceives to be American interests, the right intermediary can still play a crucial role in framing those interests. Schiller's network, rooted in personal loyalty, appears to have helped Pakistan avoid harsher tariff treatment. This suggests that even in a political environment where personal connections hold significant sway, the ability to effectively communicate a nation's perspective and highlight its strategic importance can influence policy outcomes. Miller, despite his campaign pedigree, has yet to deliver visible wins for India six months into his contract. This highlights the challenges of translating political expertise into tangible results in the face of Trump's preference for personal engagement and direct communication. The article concludes by emphasizing that in a Washington where access is currency, the competition between Miller and Schiller could quietly shape not just trade flows but the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia itself. This underscores the high stakes involved in the battle for influence and the potential consequences for the region's stability and security. As countries continue to navigate the complexities of the Trump era, the ability to understand and adapt to the evolving dynamics of Washington's political landscape will be critical for safeguarding their interests and promoting their strategic objectives.
Source: Jason Miller and Keith Schiller: How two lobbyists are influencing US ties with India and Pakistan