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The evolving relationship between the Philippines and India represents a significant development in the Indo-Pacific region, driven by a convergence of strategic interests and a desire to enhance bilateral cooperation. President Bongbong Marcos's visit to India underscores Manila's intent to elevate the partnership to a strategic level, drawing inspiration from the India-ASEAN Comprehensive Partnership. This deepening engagement is particularly noteworthy given the Philippines' increasingly assertive stance on the South China Sea and its broader efforts to diversify its foreign policy engagements. India, on the other hand, views its partnership with the Philippines as a cornerstone of its “Act East” Policy, its Vision MAHASAGAR, and its overall Indo-Pacific strategy, recognizing the Philippines' strategic location and its role in maintaining regional stability. The commemoration of 75 years of diplomatic relations provides a timely opportunity to solidify these ties and address shared regional and global challenges. Furthermore, the Philippines' upcoming chairmanship of ASEAN adds another layer of significance to this evolving partnership, potentially amplifying its influence within the regional bloc.
A key factor driving the enhanced relationship is the Philippines' increasingly vocal criticism of China's actions in the South China Sea. Under President Marcos Jr., the Philippines has shifted away from a policy of accommodating China at all costs, prioritizing instead the defense of its national interests. This shift has led to closer engagement with Japan, Australia, and the United States, and now, increasingly, with India. The Philippines' victory in the 2016 arbitral award against Chinese claims in the South China Sea, which was largely dormant previously, has been actively pursued under the Marcos administration. India, in recent years, has shown greater responsiveness to the Philippines' position on the South China Sea, further solidifying the strategic alignment between the two countries. Manila's decision to join the International Fusion Centre established by India for the Indian Ocean Region signifies a commitment to enhancing maritime security cooperation and information sharing. This strategic alignment positions the Philippines, alongside Singapore, as one of India's closest strategic partners within ASEAN, reflecting a shared understanding of the evolving geopolitical landscape and the need for collaborative efforts to maintain regional stability.
Beyond the strategic dimension, there is a growing recognition of the need to enhance connectivity between India and the Philippines. Historically, the geographical distance between the two countries has hindered direct connectivity, resulting in a lack of direct shipping routes, flights, and other connectivity initiatives that India enjoys with other ASEAN nations. However, recent developments suggest a positive shift in this regard. The Philippines' decision to grant visa-free entry to Indian nationals and Air India's commencement of direct flights are expected to significantly boost tourism and enhance people-to-people contact, an area where the India-Philippines partnership has lagged behind other ASEAN countries. The success of direct connectivity in promoting tourism in countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia serves as a testament to the potential benefits of improved connectivity. This increased people-to-people interaction will likely foster greater understanding and goodwill between the two nations, further strengthening the foundations of the bilateral relationship.
While trade and investment have traditionally been the cornerstones of India's ties with ASEAN, India-Philippines trade relations have remained relatively modest. The Philippines currently ranks sixth among the ten ASEAN member states in terms of trade with India. In the fiscal year 2023–24, bilateral trade amounted to $3.5 billion, with Indian exports accounting for approximately $2 billion and imports from the Philippines reaching about $1.5 billion. The Philippines has historically been a hesitant participant in ASEAN-India trade frameworks, often being the last to ratify major agreements. However, there are indications of progress in this area. A new agreement on cooperation and mutual assistance in customs matters has been in place since June 2023, and negotiations on a Preferential Trade Agreement have resumed. Discussions are also ongoing regarding the Terms of Reference (ToR) for a Trade Negotiations Committee. While the Philippines is a participant in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), it has not yet emerged as a major trade player in either of these frameworks. Its key trading partners remain China, the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand.
Despite having a higher GDP per capita than India, the Philippines recognizes India's growing economic importance and its impressive annual growth rate of nearly 7 percent. This recognition is prompting Manila to engage more actively with New Delhi on the economic front. Indian investments in the Philippines are currently valued at around $5 billion, primarily in sectors such as IT and ITeS, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and biomass energy. Filipino investments in India are relatively limited but have the potential to grow, particularly with the rise of regional supply chains. Financial technology (fintech) has been identified as a priority area for both governments, and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed in 2023 to strengthen cooperation in this field. The increased engagement in the economic sphere is expected to further solidify the overall bilateral relationship and create new opportunities for mutual benefit.
The tourism sector also presents significant potential for growth. In 2023, the Philippines received 1.4 million tourists, but only around 30,000 were from India. However, this number is expected to increase rapidly with the newly introduced visa-free travel policy and the establishment of direct air connectivity. This increased tourism is poised to create a deeper and more dynamic India-Philippines relationship, fostering greater understanding and cultural exchange. The new impetus to this relationship is based on the wider Indo-Pacific concept, recognizing the Act East Policy for its strategic worth. As the Philippines and India navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific, their deepening partnership holds significant promise for regional stability and economic prosperity. The convergence of strategic interests, coupled with enhanced connectivity and economic cooperation, is laying the foundation for a stronger and more resilient bilateral relationship in the years to come. The mutual recognition of each other's importance in the region, driven by both security concerns and economic opportunities, is likely to be the key driver of this positive trajectory.
The relationship between the Philippines and India is not just a bilateral matter; it has broader implications for the regional order in the Indo-Pacific. As two democracies with shared interests in maintaining a rules-based international system, the Philippines and India can play a crucial role in promoting stability and security in the region. Their cooperation in areas such as maritime security, counter-terrorism, and cyber security can contribute to a more secure and stable environment. Furthermore, their collaboration on economic development and regional integration can help to foster greater prosperity and connectivity throughout the Indo-Pacific. The Philippines' upcoming chairmanship of ASEAN provides an opportunity to further advance these goals and to strengthen the ASEAN-India partnership. By working together, the Philippines and India can help to shape a more inclusive, resilient, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.
In conclusion, the evolving relationship between the Philippines and India is a multifaceted development driven by a convergence of strategic, economic, and cultural factors. The Philippines' increasing assertiveness on the South China Sea, coupled with India's growing economic and strategic influence, is creating new opportunities for cooperation and collaboration. The enhancement of connectivity, the expansion of trade and investment, and the strengthening of people-to-people ties are all contributing to a deeper and more dynamic bilateral relationship. As the Philippines and India navigate the challenges and opportunities of the Indo-Pacific, their partnership holds significant promise for regional stability, economic prosperity, and the promotion of a rules-based international system. The mutual benefits derived from this strengthened relationship will undoubtedly contribute to a more secure and prosperous future for both nations and for the wider region.