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The recent heavy rainfall battering the Jammu region has triggered concerns about rising water levels in rivers and nullahs, with the weather forecast predicting the possibility of cloud bursts until August 27th. In a proactive move, India, anticipating “heavy to extremely heavy rainfall” in the province, issued a warning to Pakistan regarding a potential flood in the Tawi river. This action is particularly noteworthy as it was framed as a “humanitarian gesture,” highlighting the shared vulnerability to natural disasters and the importance of cross-border cooperation in mitigating their impact. The Tawi river, a major left bank tributary of the Chenab river, originates from the Kailash Kund glacier in the Doda district’s Bhaderwah. It flows through the Udhampur and Jammu districts before eventually entering Sialkot in Pakistan’s Punjab province, underscoring the river’s transboundary nature and the interconnectedness of the two nations in terms of water resources. The timing of this warning is significant, occurring when the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) — a crucial agreement under which India and Pakistan are required to share any such river-related information — remains in abeyance. This suspension is linked to the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack of April 22nd, suggesting a strain in relations despite the underlying humanitarian imperative. The IWT, signed in 1960, has been a cornerstone of water management and conflict resolution between India and Pakistan for over six decades, surviving multiple wars and periods of heightened tension. It outlines the rights and obligations of both countries concerning the use of the Indus River system, which is vital for agriculture, industry, and livelihoods in both nations. The treaty establishes a Permanent Indus Commission, responsible for implementing its provisions and resolving disputes. However, the current abeyance of the IWT's information-sharing provisions raises concerns about transparency and the potential for miscommunication, which could exacerbate the impact of any flooding event. The decision by India to issue a warning to Pakistan, despite the strained relations and the suspension of the IWT's information-sharing protocols, underscores the humanitarian dimension of disaster management. It reflects a recognition that natural disasters transcend political boundaries and that cooperation is essential in protecting the lives and livelihoods of people on both sides of the border. The act can also be interpreted as a strategic move to maintain a semblance of dialogue and cooperation, even amidst heightened tensions, and to uphold India's commitment to responsible water management in the region. The Tawi river, being a tributary of the Chenab, contributes significantly to the Indus River system. Its management and the potential for flooding have implications for both India and Pakistan. The geography of the region, characterized by mountainous terrain and glacial sources, makes it particularly vulnerable to flash floods and landslides, which can be triggered by heavy rainfall or cloud bursts. The rapid urbanization and deforestation in the Jammu region have also contributed to increased runoff and the heightened risk of flooding. Therefore, effective flood management requires a multi-faceted approach, involving accurate weather forecasting, early warning systems, infrastructure development, and community-based disaster preparedness programs. The need to reinforce and strengthen disaster management capabilities on both sides of the border cannot be overstated. Sharing of information, technology, and best practices in flood forecasting, risk assessment, and emergency response can significantly enhance the resilience of communities and reduce the impact of natural disasters. The incident serves as a reminder of the critical role that water resources play in shaping relations between India and Pakistan. While the IWT has been largely successful in preventing water-related conflicts, the underlying tensions and mistrust continue to pose challenges. The current situation highlights the need for both countries to reaffirm their commitment to the treaty and to engage in constructive dialogue to address any outstanding issues. The abeyance of the IWT's information-sharing provisions should be viewed as a temporary setback, and efforts should be made to restore these essential mechanisms as soon as possible. In the long term, building trust and fostering cooperation on water management requires a broader approach that addresses the underlying political and security concerns. This includes promoting people-to-people exchanges, encouraging joint research initiatives, and strengthening institutional mechanisms for dialogue and conflict resolution. The India-Pakistan relationship is complex and multifaceted, characterized by a history of conflict and mistrust. However, the shared vulnerability to natural disasters like floods presents an opportunity for cooperation and trust-building. By working together to mitigate the risks posed by climate change and water-related hazards, the two countries can demonstrate their commitment to the well-being of their people and contribute to a more stable and peaceful region. Ultimately, the future of India-Pakistan relations depends on the ability of both countries to overcome their differences and find common ground on issues of mutual interest. Water management is one such area where cooperation is not only possible but essential for ensuring the long-term security and prosperity of both nations. The recent incident involving the Tawi river warning underscores the importance of this cooperation and the need to prioritize humanitarian considerations, even in the midst of political tensions. This situation further exemplifies that in a world increasingly threatened by climate change, cooperation, not conflict, is the only sustainable path forward for shared resources like water. The Tawi river, and its significance to both nations, should act as a catalyst for strengthened relations and enhanced cross-border collaboration, for the security and welfare of their citizens. The gesture by India, despite the circumstances, should be reciprocated to ensure continued information exchange, especially in times of potential natural disasters.
The implications of the Indus Water Treaty being in abeyance are far-reaching and extend beyond the immediate context of the Tawi river flood warning. The treaty, a landmark agreement brokered by the World Bank, has been instrumental in managing the Indus basin’s water resources, which are vital for the agricultural economies of both India and Pakistan. It allocates the waters of the six rivers of the Indus system – the Beas, Ravi, Sutlej, Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum – between the two countries. While India has full rights over the waters of the eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej), Pakistan has similar rights over the western rivers (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum). The treaty also allows India to construct certain irrigation and hydropower projects on the western rivers, subject to specific design and operational restrictions. The Permanent Indus Commission, established under the treaty, is responsible for implementing its provisions, resolving disputes, and promoting cooperation on water-related issues. The commission comprises officials from both countries who meet regularly to discuss technical matters and exchange information. However, the recent suspension of information-sharing protocols raises concerns about the effectiveness of the commission and the potential for misunderstandings. The Pahalgam terror attack, which triggered the abeyance of the IWT's information-sharing provisions, highlights the interconnectedness of security and water management. The attack, which targeted Hindu pilgrims, strained relations between India and Pakistan and led to calls for retaliatory action. In this context, the decision to suspend information-sharing under the IWT can be seen as a political signal of displeasure and a reflection of the deep-seated mistrust between the two countries. However, experts warn that politicizing water management can have serious consequences. The Indus basin is already facing significant challenges, including climate change, population growth, and increasing water demand. Climate change is causing glaciers to melt at an accelerated rate, leading to increased river flows in the short term but potentially reduced flows in the long term. Population growth and urbanization are putting pressure on water resources, while inefficient irrigation practices are leading to water wastage. In this context, cooperation on water management is essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the Indus basin. Suspending information-sharing under the IWT can undermine this cooperation and increase the risk of conflict. Moreover, the abeyance of the IWT's information-sharing provisions can also have implications for regional stability. The Indus basin is shared by multiple countries, including Afghanistan and China. Any disruption to the treaty or its implementation can create uncertainty and undermine regional water governance. Therefore, it is essential for India and Pakistan to reaffirm their commitment to the IWT and to engage in constructive dialogue to address any outstanding issues. Restoring the information-sharing protocols is a crucial first step. In addition to restoring the information-sharing protocols, India and Pakistan should also consider strengthening the Permanent Indus Commission. The commission should be given greater resources and authority to promote cooperation on water management and to resolve disputes. Both countries should also invest in joint research initiatives to improve understanding of the Indus basin’s hydrology and to develop sustainable water management practices. These initiatives should focus on areas such as glacier monitoring, flood forecasting, and water conservation. Finally, it is important to recognize that water management is not just a technical issue but also a political one. Building trust and fostering cooperation on water management requires a broader approach that addresses the underlying political and security concerns. This includes promoting people-to-people exchanges, encouraging joint research initiatives, and strengthening institutional mechanisms for dialogue and conflict resolution. The future of the Indus basin depends on the ability of India and Pakistan to overcome their differences and work together to manage this vital resource sustainably.
The act of India warning Pakistan about the potential flood in the Tawi river, despite the abeyance of certain provisions within the Indus Water Treaty, brings to the forefront the complex interplay between humanitarian obligations, political tensions, and the shared responsibility for managing transboundary water resources. This situation offers a valuable case study for understanding the challenges and opportunities in fostering cooperation between neighboring countries with a history of conflict and mistrust. The decision to frame the warning as a "humanitarian gesture" is particularly noteworthy. It suggests an acknowledgment that the potential impact of the flood transcends political boundaries and that the lives and livelihoods of people on both sides of the border are at risk. By emphasizing the humanitarian dimension, India is attempting to de-escalate tensions and create a space for dialogue and cooperation. However, the gesture also carries a strategic element. By demonstrating its willingness to share information and provide assistance, even in the midst of strained relations, India is projecting an image of responsibility and goodwill. This can help to improve its international standing and to counter accusations of being uncooperative or intransigent. The fact that the Indus Water Treaty's information-sharing provisions are currently in abeyance adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The abeyance, linked to the Pahalgam terror attack, underscores the fragility of the treaty and the vulnerability of water cooperation to political events. The treaty, while largely successful in preventing water-related conflicts, is not immune to the broader dynamics of the India-Pakistan relationship. When tensions rise, the treaty's mechanisms can be undermined, and the potential for miscommunication and mistrust increases. In this context, the decision by India to issue a warning to Pakistan can be seen as an attempt to mitigate the risks associated with the abeyance of the IWT's information-sharing provisions. By providing information about the potential flood, India is helping to ensure that Pakistan is adequately prepared and can take steps to protect its citizens. This can help to prevent a humanitarian crisis and to avoid further escalation of tensions. The Tawi river itself is a significant waterway for both India and Pakistan. As a tributary of the Chenab, it contributes to the Indus River system, which is vital for agriculture, industry, and livelihoods in both countries. The river's transboundary nature means that the actions of one country can have a direct impact on the other. In this case, the potential flood in the Tawi river poses a threat to communities on both sides of the border. This shared vulnerability creates an incentive for cooperation and joint action. The geography of the region, characterized by mountainous terrain and glacial sources, also plays a role in shaping the dynamics of water cooperation. The region is prone to flash floods and landslides, which can be triggered by heavy rainfall or cloud bursts. The rapid urbanization and deforestation in the Jammu region have also contributed to increased runoff and the heightened risk of flooding. Therefore, effective flood management requires a multi-faceted approach, involving accurate weather forecasting, early warning systems, infrastructure development, and community-based disaster preparedness programs. This requires collaboration between India and Pakistan. Looking ahead, it is essential for India and Pakistan to reaffirm their commitment to the Indus Water Treaty and to engage in constructive dialogue to address any outstanding issues. Restoring the information-sharing protocols is a crucial first step. Both countries should also consider strengthening the Permanent Indus Commission. The commission should be given greater resources and authority to promote cooperation on water management and to resolve disputes. Finally, it is important to recognize that water management is not just a technical issue but also a political one. Building trust and fostering cooperation on water management requires a broader approach that addresses the underlying political and security concerns. This includes promoting people-to-people exchanges, encouraging joint research initiatives, and strengthening institutional mechanisms for dialogue and conflict resolution.
Furthermore, the implications of this situation extend beyond the immediate geographical context of the Indus basin, offering insights into the broader challenges of transboundary water governance and the importance of proactive diplomacy in managing shared resources. The willingness of India to provide a warning to Pakistan about the potential flood in the Tawi river, even amidst strained political relations, can be interpreted as an endorsement of the principle of "no harm." This principle, enshrined in international water law, holds that states have a responsibility to avoid causing significant harm to other states through their use of shared water resources. While the precise definition of "significant harm" can be debated, the principle underscores the need for states to exercise due diligence and to take reasonable measures to prevent transboundary impacts. In this case, India's warning can be seen as an effort to fulfill its obligation under the principle of no harm by providing Pakistan with information that could help it to mitigate the potential impact of the flood. The situation also highlights the importance of early warning systems and proactive disaster management. The ability to provide timely and accurate information about potential hazards can make a significant difference in reducing the impact of disasters. In the case of the Tawi river flood, the warning from India allowed Pakistan to take precautionary measures, such as evacuating people from low-lying areas and deploying emergency response teams. This can help to save lives and reduce property damage. The effectiveness of early warning systems depends on several factors, including the availability of accurate weather data, the capacity to model flood risks, and the ability to communicate warnings to the public in a timely and effective manner. In this regard, cooperation between India and Pakistan is essential. Sharing data, expertise, and best practices can help to improve the accuracy and reliability of early warning systems on both sides of the border. This is particularly important in the context of climate change, which is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. Climate change is also altering the hydrological cycle, making it more difficult to predict future water availability. In this context, cooperation on water management is essential for adapting to the impacts of climate change and ensuring the long-term sustainability of water resources. The Tawi river flood warning also underscores the importance of political will in fostering cooperation on transboundary water resources. Despite the strained relations between India and Pakistan, the decision to provide a warning demonstrates a willingness to put humanitarian concerns above political considerations. This is a positive sign and suggests that there is still scope for cooperation, even in the midst of conflict and mistrust. However, political will is not enough. Cooperation on transboundary water resources also requires strong institutions, clear legal frameworks, and effective mechanisms for dispute resolution. The Indus Water Treaty provides a solid foundation for cooperation between India and Pakistan, but it is not without its challenges. The treaty is often criticized for being too rigid and for not adequately addressing the impacts of climate change. There is also a lack of transparency in the treaty's implementation, which can undermine trust between the two countries. To address these challenges, India and Pakistan should consider updating the Indus Water Treaty to reflect the latest scientific knowledge and to incorporate provisions for adapting to climate change. They should also strengthen the Permanent Indus Commission to make it more effective in promoting cooperation and resolving disputes. Finally, it is important to recognize that cooperation on transboundary water resources is not just about technical issues. It is also about building trust, fostering dialogue, and promoting mutual understanding. This requires a long-term commitment from both India and Pakistan. The situation surrounding the Tawi river flood warning serves as a valuable reminder of the challenges and opportunities in fostering cooperation on transboundary water resources. By learning from this experience, India and Pakistan can work together to build a more sustainable and peaceful future for the Indus basin and the region as a whole.
Source: Why India warned Pakistan about a potential flood in river Tawi