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The evolving relationship between India and China is a complex tapestry woven with threads of cautious optimism, persistent suspicion, and the stark realities of geopolitical necessity. Since the Kazan Summit in October 2024, a palpable thawing of relations has been observed, characterized by a surge in bilateral exchanges across various sectors, including government, think tanks, media, and academia. This reset has yielded tangible progress in areas such as visa relaxations, resumption of pilgrimage routes, and the fostering of people-to-people ties, with the promise of direct flights on the horizon. Parallel to these positive developments, discussions on trade and economic cooperation are ongoing, aiming to unlock the potential for mutual benefit and shared prosperity. However, a defining feature of this rapprochement is the pervasive caution that underscores every step forward. This caution stems from a confluence of factors, including Beijing's continued support for Pakistan, particularly evident during Operation Sindoor, and its imposition of curbs on the export of crucial resources and technologies such as rare earth magnets, tunnel-boring equipment, advanced goods, and specialist personnel. These actions have raised concerns in India about China's long-term intentions and its commitment to a truly equitable and mutually beneficial relationship. Adding another layer of complexity are the recent tariff impositions, which have inadvertently injected a new sense of urgency into the ongoing reset. The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Delhi served as a crucial platform for dialogue and negotiation, aimed at addressing these concerns and charting a path forward. The breadth and depth of the agreements emerging from these talks suggest that the rapprochement is indeed gaining momentum, even in the face of persistent suspicion and underlying tensions. These agreements encompass a wide range of areas, including trade, investment, infrastructure development, and cultural exchange, signaling a commitment from both sides to deepen cooperation and build a more robust and resilient relationship. However, the true test of this rapprochement will lie in its ability to translate these agreements into tangible outcomes that benefit both nations and contribute to regional stability and prosperity.
The shadow of the 2020 Galwan clash looms large over the India-China relationship, casting a long and persistent pall of mistrust and uncertainty. The violent confrontation and subsequent standoff dealt a major setback to bilateral relations, deepening existing fissures and discrediting earlier agreements that had sought to establish a framework for peaceful coexistence and cooperation. For nearly five years, a virtual freeze gripped the relationship, punctuated only by consistent military and diplomatic talks that produced limited progress in the form of buffer zones and revised patrolling protocols. These measures, while providing a temporary modus vivendi, fell short of addressing the fundamental issues at the heart of the border dispute and failed to restore the trust that had been so severely eroded. The thaw initiated at Kazan represents a significant shift in the dynamics of the relationship, but its impact has yet to fully percolate down to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between the two countries. Troop disengagement has taken place in certain areas, but this has not been accompanied by de-escalation, demobilization, or meaningful progress on border delimitation. While recent accords hint at new ideas and potential avenues for resolving the border dispute, the reality remains that both sides continue to deploy approximately 60,000 troops each along the frontier, underscoring the fragility of the peace and the persistent risk of renewed conflict. The structural tensions that shape the India-China relationship extend beyond the border dispute and encompass a wide range of issues, including geopolitical competition, economic rivalry, and diverging strategic interests. China champions multipolarity at the global level but resists a multipolar Asia, which India strongly prefers. This divergence in perspective reflects underlying differences in their vision for the future of the region and their respective roles within it. Beijing's naval presence in the Indian Ocean has expanded substantially over the years, raising concerns in India about its intentions and its growing assertiveness in the region. Similarly, China's hard competitive line in South Asia shows little sign of easing, as it continues to cultivate close ties with countries in the region, often at the expense of India's interests. Frictions also persist over trade restrictions, the South China Sea, Taiwan, Tibet, and Pakistan, highlighting the multifaceted nature of the challenges facing the two countries. Beijing continues to arm India's rivals, while New Delhi has begun to market weapons to Southeast Asia, further fueling the arms race and intensifying strategic competition in the region. As India's economic and diplomatic profile grows, competition for resources, markets, and influence in the Global South and beyond with China appears set to intensify, creating new challenges and opportunities for both nations.
Despite the numerous challenges and persistent tensions that characterize the India-China relationship, the two nations are bound by geography and the immutable realities of their shared border. No bilateral rupture, however severe, can erase the fact that they are neighbors and that their destinies are inextricably linked. Together, India and China are home to nearly 3 billion people, representing a significant portion of the world's population and economic output. Yet, despite their proximity and interconnectedness, these neighboring giants remain strikingly uninformed about one another. Mutual ignorance, at both societal and policy levels, has hindered meaningful engagement for decades, perpetuating stereotypes and misconceptions that undermine trust and cooperation. In an era defined by multipolarity, economic interdependence, and strategic recalibration, looking past each other is a luxury neither country can afford. The challenges facing the world today, from climate change to global pandemics to economic instability, demand cooperation and collaboration on a scale never before seen. India and China, as two of the world's largest and most influential nations, have a responsibility to work together to address these challenges and to create a more peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable future for all. China offers valuable lessons in urban planning, digital infrastructure, green energy, and frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence. Its venture capital ecosystem is deep, its manufacturing capacity unmatched, making it a valuable partner for India as it seeks to modernize its economy and improve the lives of its citizens. India, on the other hand, provides what China increasingly needs: a vast, growing, and relatively stable market. As China's economy matures and its population ages, it is looking to new sources of growth and new markets for its goods and services. India, with its large and young population, its rapidly growing middle class, and its increasing openness to foreign investment, offers a compelling opportunity for China to diversify its economy and to secure its long-term prosperity. If the two countries can forge even a modestly functional economic partnership, the ripple effects could benefit the broader Asian region, creating new jobs, stimulating economic growth, and fostering greater stability and cooperation.
India offers China both scale and security for long-term investment. Grand projects such as the BRI, GSI, GDI or the stalled BCIM corridor have delivered little, weighed down by mistrust and geopolitics. These ambitious initiatives, while promising in theory, have been hampered by a lack of transparency, concerns about debt sustainability, and geopolitical rivalries. By contrast, sectoral engagement, tourism, agricultural machinery, consumer goods, and other practical areas offer faster returns with lower risk. These more focused and targeted initiatives are less susceptible to political interference and are more likely to generate tangible benefits for both countries. With global growth slowing and supply chains shifting, India's scale and China's capital and expertise create natural complementarities. Proximity lowers costs, while consumer demand on both sides offers depth. Incremental, commercially grounded initiatives may lack fanfare, but they can generate jobs, boost trade flows and, over time, lay the foundation for broader strategic stability. These small steps, while seemingly insignificant on their own, can collectively contribute to a more robust and resilient relationship between the two countries. Multipolarity is no longer a distant forecast; it is taking shape now. The world is becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, with power shifting away from traditional centers and towards new and emerging players. India already ranks as the world's most populous nation, its fourth-strongest military power, and is on course to become the third-largest economy. In a multipolar world, permanent allies and lasting rivals are illusions. The old paradigms of Cold War-era alliances and ideological divides are no longer relevant in a world where national interests are paramount and where flexibility and adaptability are essential for success. What matters and endures is national interest. For India, this means a pragmatic stance: every state is a partner until proven otherwise, while the neighborhood commands priority and creative diplomacy. This approach allows India to pursue its interests effectively while maintaining constructive relations with a wide range of countries. Multipolarity will normalize fluid alignments and overlapping coalitions, pushing states to hedge, seek leverage, and widen their options. In this context, it is imperative that India and China manage their relationship effectively and avoid falling into the trap of zero-sum competition. It is in this context that India and China have quickened their rapprochement, driven less by trust, which remains scarce, than by necessity. The challenges facing both countries, from economic development to climate change to regional security, are too great to be addressed alone. The much-talked-about "Trump factor" remains marginal in this rebuilding of ties but will certainly inform choices going forward. The policies of the United States, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, will continue to shape the global landscape and to influence the calculations of both India and China. New Delhi will continue to seek convergence with Beijing, wherever possible, even while building its own deterrent capabilities. India recognizes the need to strengthen its own military and economic capabilities in order to safeguard its interests and to maintain its strategic autonomy in a rapidly changing world.
Source: India, China, Trump, And An Awkward Marriage Of Convenience