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The article delves into the complex and evolving relationship between India and China, highlighting a cautious rapprochement that has been underway since the Kazan Summit in October 2024. This renewed engagement is characterized by a surge in bilateral exchanges across various sectors, including government, think tanks, media, and academia. The initial progress has manifested in tangible outcomes such as visa relaxations, resumption of pilgrimage routes, and enhanced people-to-people connections. The anticipated resumption of direct flights further underscores the positive momentum in these bilateral interactions. Simultaneously, discussions concerning trade and economic cooperation continue, signifying a broader commitment to fostering a more collaborative economic landscape between the two nations. However, the authors emphasize that caution remains a key element in this renewed engagement, particularly in light of Beijing's continued support for Pakistan, especially evident during Operation Sindoor. Furthermore, China's imposition of restrictions on critical resources like rare earth magnets, tunnel-boring equipment, advanced goods, and specialized personnel introduces another layer of complexity. Recent tariff impositions by the US, however, appear to have injected a new sense of urgency into this ongoing reset, as demonstrated by the high-profile visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Delhi. The scope and depth of agreements emerging from these talks suggest a significant acceleration in the rapprochement process, despite persistent underlying suspicions and historical baggage. The article meticulously explores the nuanced dynamics shaping this evolving relationship, emphasizing the interplay of progress and caution, cooperation and competition.
A central theme explored in the article is the enduring schism rooted in historical events and divergent geopolitical perspectives. The 2020 Galwan clash and the ensuing border standoff served as a major setback, significantly eroding trust and casting a shadow on previous agreements. For nearly five years, relations remained largely frozen, despite continuous military and diplomatic talks that resulted in the establishment of buffer zones and revised patrolling protocols, effectively establishing a temporary modus vivendi. While the thaw initiated at Kazan has spurred broader engagement, its impact on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains limited. Although troop disengagement has occurred, the authors note that this has not yet translated into de-escalation, demobilization, or substantial progress on border delimitation. However, recent accords offer a glimmer of hope, hinting at the potential for new approaches to resolving the long-standing border dispute. Despite these developments, both sides maintain a substantial military presence, deploying approximately 60,000 troops each along the frontier, underscoring the fragile nature of the peace. Beyond the border issue, structural tensions further complicate the relationship. China advocates for multipolarity at the global level but appears resistant to a multipolar Asia, which India favors. Beijing's growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean and its assertive stance in South Asia demonstrate the ongoing competitive dynamic. Friction persists over trade restrictions, the South China Sea, Taiwan, Tibet, and Pakistan. China's continued support for India's rivals and India's increasing focus on exporting weapons to Southeast Asia further exemplify the complex and competitive nature of their interactions. As India's economic and diplomatic influence expands, competition for resources, markets, and influence in the Global South and beyond with China is expected to intensify.
The article further examines the underlying factors driving the rapprochement between India and China, acknowledging the inescapable reality of their geographical proximity. With a combined population of nearly 3 billion, these neighboring giants are inevitably intertwined. The authors point out a striking level of mutual ignorance, hindering effective engagement for decades. However, in a rapidly evolving global landscape marked by multipolarity, economic interdependence, and strategic recalibration, neither country can afford to disregard the other. China offers valuable insights and expertise in areas such as urban planning, digital infrastructure, green energy, and frontier technologies like artificial intelligence. Its venture capital ecosystem is well-established, and its manufacturing capabilities are unmatched. Conversely, India presents what China increasingly requires: a large, growing, and relatively stable market. The authors suggest that even a modestly functional economic partnership could have significant positive ripple effects across the broader Asian region. India offers China both scale and security for long-term investments. Grand infrastructure projects like the BRI, GSI, GDI, and the stalled BCIM corridor have faced challenges due to mistrust and geopolitical complexities. In contrast, sectoral engagement, tourism, agricultural machinery, consumer goods, and other practical areas offer faster returns with lower risk. With global growth slowing and supply chains undergoing shifts, India's scale and China's capital and expertise create natural complementarities. Proximity reduces costs, while consumer demand on both sides provides depth. The authors advocate for incremental, commercially grounded initiatives that, while lacking fanfare, can generate jobs, boost trade flows, and ultimately lay the foundation for broader strategic stability.
The conclusion underscores the evolving nature of global power dynamics, emphasizing that multipolarity is no longer a distant concept but a present reality. India is recognized as the world's most populous nation, its fourth-strongest military power, and is on track to become the third-largest economy. In this multipolar world, the notion of permanent allies and lasting rivals is considered an illusion. National interest is presented as the paramount and enduring factor. For India, this translates to a pragmatic approach: every state is a potential partner until proven otherwise, with a focus on the neighborhood and creative diplomacy. Multipolarity is expected to normalize fluid alignments and overlapping coalitions, driving states to hedge, seek leverage, and diversify their options. It is within this framework that India and China have accelerated their rapprochement, driven more by necessity than by trust, which remains in short supply. The "Trump factor," while not a primary driver, is acknowledged as a consideration in future decision-making. New Delhi is expected to continue seeking convergence with Beijing wherever possible, even while simultaneously bolstering its own deterrent capabilities. The article concludes with a disclaimer indicating that the views expressed are solely those of the authors, Harsh V Pant and Atul, affiliated with the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi.
Source: India, China, Trump, And An Awkward Marriage Of Convenience