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The devastating flash flood in Kishtwar, Jammu & Kashmir, claiming the lives of at least 65 people and leaving over 50 missing, serves as a stark reminder of the escalating threat posed by extreme weather events. While attributing any single event solely to climate change is a complex undertaking, experts emphasize the growing frequency and intensity of such disasters – flash floods, wildfires, and landslides – due to rising global temperatures and shifting weather patterns. This article meticulously explores the connection between climate change and the increasing prevalence of extreme weather in the region, drawing upon scientific studies and expert opinions to paint a comprehensive picture of the contributing factors. The analysis focuses on a recent study published in Mausam, the journal of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which meticulously documents the occurrence of 2,863 extreme weather events in J&K between 2010 and 2022, resulting in 552 deaths. The study highlights thunderstorms, heavy rain, flash floods, and landslides as the most frequent and deadly occurrences. Specifically, flash floods were particularly devastating in Kishtwar, Anantnag, Ganderbal, and Doda, underscoring the vulnerability of these regions to climate-related disasters. The study underscores the significant role of heavy rain and heavy snow in causing mortality in the union territory, while also acknowledging the rising importance of flash floods, thunderstorms, and windstorms. The core of the article delves into the underlying reasons for the increasing frequency and intensity of these extreme weather events. Three primary drivers are identified: rising temperatures, changing patterns of Western Disturbances, and the region's unique topography. The analysis presents compelling evidence that J&K, situated in the western Himalayas, is experiencing a disproportionately high rate of temperature increase compared to the Indian subcontinent as a whole. This warming trend has profound implications for precipitation patterns, as warmer air can hold significantly more moisture, leading to increased precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency. Furthermore, rising temperatures contribute to the melting of glaciers and the formation of glacial lakes, increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding in downstream areas. The fragility of these glacial lake edges, coupled with heavy rainfall, can trigger overflow and the release of slush and unconsolidated sediment, exacerbating the damage caused by floods. The changing nature of Western Disturbances, weather systems that originate beyond Afghanistan and Iran and bring moisture from various seas, is another critical factor. These disturbances, traditionally associated with winter months, are now impacting weather patterns outside the winter season, increasing the risk of floods and heavy rain in the Himalayan states. The warming of the Arabian Sea, attributed to global warming, further intensifies these disturbances by providing more moisture, leading to more extreme weather events over the hills. Finally, the article emphasizes the crucial role of J&K's topography in exacerbating the impact of extreme weather. The Himalayan region's diverse hill ranges significantly influence weather patterns, leading to orographic rainfall, where moist air is forced to rise over the mountains, cool, and condense into heavy precipitation. This phenomenon, combined with the other factors, creates a perfect storm for extreme weather events in the region.
The rising temperatures in the Jammu and Kashmir region are not merely a statistical anomaly; they represent a profound shift in the environmental equilibrium. The western Himalayas, where J&K is situated, have experienced a temperature increase twice that of the Indian subcontinent since 2000. This accelerated warming has a cascade of effects, beginning with the increased capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapor. For every degree Celsius increase in temperature, the atmosphere can retain approximately 7% more moisture. This seemingly small percentage change has a substantial impact on precipitation patterns. Increased moisture in the atmosphere translates to more intense rainfall events, longer durations of precipitation, and a higher frequency of heavy rainfall. The consequences are severe, leading to increased flooding, landslides, and other water-related disasters. Furthermore, the rising temperatures contribute to the melting of glaciers, a critical source of freshwater for the region. As glaciers recede, they form glacial lakes, which can pose a significant threat. These lakes are often unstable, with edges prone to erosion and sudden failures. When heavy rain occurs, the lakes can overflow, releasing large volumes of water, along with slush and unconsolidated sediment, causing devastating floods downstream. The expert opinion of Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather Services highlights this vulnerability, emphasizing that the instability of these glacial lake edges makes them particularly susceptible to damage during heavy rainfall events. In addition to the direct effects of rising temperatures on precipitation patterns and glacial melt, there are also indirect effects on the overall climate system. The warming of the region can alter atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to changes in wind patterns and the distribution of moisture. These changes can further exacerbate the risk of extreme weather events, making the region more vulnerable to droughts, heat waves, and other climate-related hazards.
The changing nature of Western Disturbances (WDs) adds another layer of complexity to the climate challenges facing Jammu and Kashmir. These east-moving rain-bearing wind systems, originating beyond Afghanistan and Iran, play a crucial role in the region's weather patterns. Traditionally, WDs are most common during the boreal winter months (December to March), bringing much-needed precipitation to the region in the form of snow and rain. However, in recent years, the influence of WDs has extended beyond the winter season, impacting weather patterns throughout the year. This shift is attributed to global warming, which has altered the atmospheric circulation patterns and the characteristics of WDs. The warming of the Arabian Sea, in particular, has been identified as a key factor in the changing nature of WDs. As the Arabian Sea warms, it emits more moisture northwards, which is then picked up by WDs. This increased moisture content intensifies the WDs, leading to heavier rainfall and increased risk of flooding in the Himalayan states. Dr. K J Ramesh, former director general of meteorology at IMD, explained that when the amplitude of WDs extends up to the North Arabian Sea, more moisture is fed into the system, resulting in intense weather activity over the hills. The increased frequency and intensity of WDs, combined with the rising temperatures and the melting of glaciers, create a perfect storm for extreme weather events in Jammu and Kashmir. The region is now facing a higher risk of floods, landslides, and other climate-related disasters, posing a significant threat to human lives and livelihoods. Understanding the changing nature of WDs is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the region. This requires improved monitoring of WDs, enhanced forecasting capabilities, and proactive measures to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events.
The topography of Jammu and Kashmir further exacerbates its vulnerability to extreme weather events. The Himalayan region's diverse hill ranges have a profound effect on weather patterns, creating unique microclimates and influencing the distribution of precipitation. One major factor is orographic rainfall, which occurs when moist air is forced to rise over the mountains, cooling and condensing into heavy precipitation. This process can lead to localized heavy rainfall events, which can trigger flash floods and landslides. The steep slopes of the Himalayan mountains also make the region more susceptible to landslides. Heavy rainfall can saturate the soil, reducing its stability and increasing the risk of landslides. The combination of orographic rainfall and steep slopes creates a highly vulnerable environment, where even moderate rainfall events can trigger devastating landslides. Sachchida Nand Tripathi, dean of Kotak School of Sustainability at IIT-Kanpur, emphasized the importance of topography in influencing weather patterns in the Himalayas. He explained that the diverse hill ranges have a profound effect on weather patterns, leading to localized heavy rainfall events. The unique topography of Jammu and Kashmir requires tailored strategies to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. This includes improved land-use planning, construction of protective structures, and implementation of early warning systems. Furthermore, it is crucial to address the underlying causes of climate change, such as greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce the risk of future extreme weather events in the region. The Kishtwar flash flood serves as a tragic reminder of the urgent need to address climate change and its impacts on vulnerable regions like Jammu and Kashmir. By understanding the complex interplay of factors contributing to extreme weather events, we can develop effective strategies to protect human lives and livelihoods and build a more resilient future.
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Jammu and Kashmir, as highlighted by the Kishtwar flash flood, necessitate a multi-faceted approach to mitigation and adaptation. This approach must encompass both immediate measures to address the current risks and long-term strategies to reduce vulnerability to future climate change impacts. Immediate measures include enhancing early warning systems to provide timely alerts to communities at risk. These systems should leverage advanced weather forecasting technologies and integrate local knowledge to ensure effective communication and evacuation procedures. Furthermore, investments in infrastructure resilience are crucial. This includes constructing protective structures, such as dams and embankments, to mitigate flood risks, and improving drainage systems to manage heavy rainfall. Land-use planning also plays a vital role in reducing vulnerability. By restricting construction in high-risk areas and promoting sustainable land management practices, we can minimize the potential for damage and loss of life. In the long term, addressing the underlying causes of climate change is paramount. This requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions through a transition to renewable energy sources and implementing policies to promote energy efficiency. Additionally, adaptation strategies are essential to help communities cope with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. This includes promoting climate-resilient agriculture, diversifying livelihoods, and strengthening social safety nets. International cooperation is also crucial in addressing climate change. Developed countries have a responsibility to provide financial and technical assistance to developing countries, like India, to help them mitigate and adapt to climate change. Furthermore, collaborative research and knowledge sharing are essential to improve our understanding of climate change and develop effective solutions. The challenges posed by climate change in Jammu and Kashmir are significant, but they are not insurmountable. By taking a comprehensive and proactive approach, we can protect human lives and livelihoods and build a more resilient future for the region. The Kishtwar flash flood should serve as a wake-up call, urging us to take immediate action to address the climate crisis and protect vulnerable communities.
Source: Kishtwar flash flood: How climate change has contributed to extreme weather events in J&K