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The article delves into the complex and often distrustful relationship between China and India, particularly as seen through the lens of Chinese foreign affairs analysts. The core issue revolves around a potential visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' meet, a prospect that has elicited mixed reactions within China. While some, particularly within the official government channels and state-run media, have welcomed the visit as an opportunity for improved bilateral relations, a significant number of analysts and commentators express deep skepticism and distrust, questioning India's commitment and motives. This skepticism stems from a long-standing perception within China that India pursues a policy of "playing both sides," balancing its relationships with both the United States and China to its own advantage. This perception has been particularly reinforced by India's deepening engagement with the US in recent years, especially within the framework of the US-led QUAD security dialogue, which is widely seen as a counterweight to China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The timing of the potential visit, coinciding with escalating trade tensions between the US and India and amidst speculation about a possible US-Russia deal, further fuels the skepticism. Chinese analysts question whether India's willingness to engage with China is a genuine effort to improve relations or simply a tactical maneuver to counterbalance the pressure from the US. They are particularly concerned about India's commitment to moving beyond its perceived "leaning on one side" foreign policy towards the US and whether it is willing to take concrete steps to demonstrate its sincerity. This includes the possibility of a summit meeting between PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the SCO meeting and a genuine commitment to addressing the numerous issues that currently hinder China-India economic and trade cooperation and erode mutual trust. These issues include the border tensions, the "reviewing" and suppressing of Chinese capital, restrictions on visas for Chinese technical personnel, the lack of direct flights between the two countries, and the numerous barriers imposed on Chinese investments. The historical context of China-India relations also plays a significant role in shaping the current skepticism. From the days of the Cold War, China has viewed India's non-alignment policy with suspicion, often perceiving it as a cover for acting on behalf of the US. The collapse of the USSR and India's subsequent economic liberalization and deepening engagement with the US have further reinforced this view. This historical distrust is compounded by concerns about India's commitment to multilateral forums such as the SCO and BRICS. Chinese analysts point to PM Modi's inconsistent attendance at SCO leaders' meetings and India's actions at SCO events, such as the Indian Defence Minister's criticism of Pakistan and refusal to sign the SCO joint statement, as evidence of a lack of genuine commitment to the organization's goals. The article also highlights the divergent views within China regarding the significance of PM Modi's potential visit. While some emphasize the common areas of cooperation between China and India and the potential for improved relations, others dismiss India as a "joke," arguing that Trump's "tariff terrorism" has left the country "powerless" and without bargaining chips. This divergence of opinion reflects the complex and multifaceted nature of China-India relations and the challenges involved in building trust and cooperation between the two countries.
The Chinese perspective articulated in the article showcases a deep-seated concern regarding India's strategic alignment in the evolving global order. The skepticism surrounding PM Modi's potential visit transcends mere diplomatic niceties and delves into fundamental questions about India's foreign policy objectives and its commitment to genuinely improving relations with China. The analysts' apprehension stems from a perceived pattern of India leveraging its relationships with both China and the United States to maximize its own strategic and economic advantages, a strategy they often characterize as "liang tou chi" – having the cake and eating it too. This perceived double-dealing has eroded trust and fueled suspicions about India's long-term intentions, particularly in the context of the intensifying geopolitical competition between the US and China. The article effectively underscores the importance of understanding the historical baggage that weighs heavily on China-India relations. The legacy of the Cold War, the border dispute, and the perceived alignment of India with the US have all contributed to a climate of distrust and suspicion. This historical context makes it difficult for China to view India's actions with a purely objective lens, often interpreting them through the prism of past grievances and perceived betrayals. The analysts' concerns about India's commitment to multilateral forums like the SCO and BRICS further highlight the depth of their skepticism. They question whether India is genuinely invested in these organizations or simply using them as platforms to advance its own narrow interests. The inconsistent attendance of PM Modi at SCO leaders' meetings and India's confrontational stance on issues like cross-border terrorism are cited as evidence of a lack of genuine commitment to the SCO's goals. Furthermore, the analysts' concerns about India's economic policies, such as the "reviewing" and suppressing of Chinese capital and the restrictions on visas for Chinese technical personnel, underscore the economic dimension of the distrust. They perceive these policies as discriminatory and detrimental to China-India economic cooperation, further eroding mutual trust and hindering the development of a more robust and mutually beneficial economic relationship. The article also sheds light on the internal debates within China regarding the best approach to managing relations with India. While some advocate for a more pragmatic and cooperative approach, emphasizing the common areas of cooperation and the potential for mutual benefit, others advocate for a more cautious and skeptical approach, emphasizing the need to remain vigilant and protect China's interests in the face of India's perceived double-dealing. This internal debate reflects the complexity of the issue and the challenges involved in forging a consensus on how to navigate the complex and often fraught relationship between China and India.
The nuanced perspectives presented in the article paint a picture of a relationship fraught with complexities, historical baggage, and a persistent undercurrent of distrust. The Chinese analysts' concerns, while perhaps colored by their own national interests and strategic calculations, offer valuable insights into the challenges facing China-India relations and the obstacles that must be overcome to build a more stable and cooperative partnership. One of the key takeaways from the article is the importance of addressing the historical grievances and mutual suspicions that have plagued China-India relations for decades. This requires a willingness on both sides to engage in open and honest dialogue, to acknowledge past mistakes, and to build trust through concrete actions. Another important takeaway is the need for both countries to adopt a more realistic and pragmatic approach to their relationship. This means recognizing that there will be areas of disagreement and competition, but also identifying areas where cooperation is possible and mutually beneficial. It also means avoiding overly ambitious expectations and focusing on achievable goals. The article also underscores the importance of strengthening communication and people-to-people exchanges between China and India. This can help to break down stereotypes, build understanding, and foster a greater sense of empathy and mutual respect. It is also crucial for both countries to refrain from actions that could escalate tensions or undermine trust. This includes avoiding provocative statements, respecting each other's territorial integrity, and addressing economic grievances in a fair and transparent manner. The potential visit of PM Modi to China, while viewed with skepticism by some, presents an opportunity to address these challenges and build a more positive and constructive relationship. However, for the visit to be truly successful, it must be accompanied by a genuine commitment on both sides to move beyond the rhetoric and take concrete steps to improve mutual trust and cooperation. This requires a willingness to address the underlying issues that have fueled distrust, to engage in open and honest dialogue, and to build a relationship based on mutual respect and understanding. Ultimately, the future of China-India relations will depend on the willingness of both countries to overcome their historical baggage, to adopt a more pragmatic and cooperative approach, and to build a relationship based on mutual trust and respect. Only then can they unlock the full potential of their partnership and contribute to a more stable and prosperous future for the region and the world.
The article also implicitly highlights the role of external actors, particularly the United States, in shaping China-India relations. The Chinese analysts' concerns about India's perceived alignment with the US underscore the strategic triangle that exists between the three countries and the potential for external factors to influence the dynamics between China and India. The US's efforts to cultivate closer ties with India, particularly within the framework of the QUAD security dialogue, are viewed with suspicion by China, which sees it as an attempt to contain its growing influence in the region. This perception can exacerbate tensions between China and India, as China may view India's engagement with the US as a sign of its alignment against China. Furthermore, the article suggests that the evolving relationship between the US and Russia could also have implications for China-India relations. The potential for a US-Russia deal on Ukraine raises questions about India's continued reliance on Russian oil and the impact this could have on its relations with both China and the US. This highlights the complex web of interconnected relationships that shape the geopolitical landscape and the challenges facing countries like India that seek to balance their relationships with multiple major powers. The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of genuine intentions and concrete actions in improving China-India relations. The Global Times editorial, reflecting the Chinese government's view, puts a condition on Modi's visit translating into improved bilateral relations, saying "We welcome Prime Minister Modi to visit China with genuine intentions to improve bilateral ties…" This underscores the need for India to demonstrate its sincerity through tangible steps that address China's concerns and build mutual trust. At the same time, the article also acknowledges the divergent views within China, with some commentators expressing skepticism and even disdain towards India. This highlights the challenges involved in forging a consensus within China on how to approach relations with India and the need for a more nuanced and informed understanding of India's perspectives and strategic objectives. In conclusion, the article provides a valuable glimpse into the Chinese perspective on China-India relations, highlighting the complexities, challenges, and opportunities facing the two countries. It underscores the importance of historical context, strategic calculations, and external factors in shaping the relationship and the need for both sides to adopt a more pragmatic, cooperative, and trust-based approach to building a more stable and prosperous future.
Source: Why many Chinese foreign affairs analysts reacted critically to PM Modi’s likely China visit