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The Indian stock market is poised for a slightly positive opening on Wednesday, July 2nd, as indicated by mixed signals from global markets and trends observed in the Gift Nifty. The Gift Nifty, a proxy for the Nifty 50, was trading around the 25,675 level, representing a premium of approximately 32 points compared to the Nifty futures' previous closing price. This suggests a mildly optimistic sentiment prevailing among investors at the start of the trading session. On the preceding trading day, Tuesday, the domestic equity market concluded with marginal gains, with the Nifty 50 managing to maintain its position above the 25,500 level. The Sensex, another key benchmark index, experienced an increase of 90.83 points, equivalent to a 0.11% rise, ultimately closing at 83,697.29. Simultaneously, the Nifty 50 settled 24.75 points higher, representing a 0.10% gain, and closed at 25,541.80. This overall positive, albeit modest, performance sets the stage for Wednesday's trading session, with market participants closely monitoring various factors that could influence the direction of the market. Several analysts have provided their insights and predictions regarding the potential movements of the Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty indices. These predictions are based on technical analysis, open interest data, and chart patterns, offering valuable perspectives for traders and investors to consider. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, suggests that the current market texture is non-directional, implying a period of indecisiveness between bullish and bearish forces. Chouhan believes that traders may be awaiting a breakout on either side to determine the market's next move. For bullish investors, the immediate breakout zone for the Sensex lies at 83,900. A successful breach above this level could potentially propel the Sensex towards the 84,200 to 84,400 range. Conversely, a failure to sustain above 83,500 could trigger selling pressure, potentially leading the index to retest the 83,200 to 83,000 levels. This analysis highlights the importance of closely monitoring these key levels to gauge the potential direction of the Sensex.
Further insights into the potential movements of the Nifty 50 can be gleaned from open interest (OI) data in the derivatives segment. According to Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking, the Nifty open interest data reveals the highest Call OI at the 25,600 strike, followed by the 25,700 strike. This suggests the presence of a potential resistance zone around these levels, where sellers are expected to exert downward pressure. On the Put side, the highest OI is observed at the 25,500 and 25,400 strikes, indicating strong support levels in this region. This OI setup implies that the 25,500 to 25,600 zone will be crucial in determining the Nifty's next directional move. A break above the resistance at 25,600 could pave the way for further gains, while a break below the support at 25,500 could lead to a decline. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, provides a contrasting perspective, suggesting that the near-term trend of the Nifty 50 remains positive. He notes the presence of bullish chart patterns, such as higher tops and bottoms, on the daily chart. Shetti believes that further consolidation or weakness from the current levels could create a short-term base for the market. He points out that the market has consolidated after a sharp upside breakout of the broader high-low range of 24,500 to 25,200 levels in the previous week. The subsequent slide down to the support of the previous broken area around 25,300 levels could be a positive indication, suggesting that the market is finding support at these levels. Shetti expects strong support around the 25,400 to 25,300 levels, where a sharp bounce from the lows is anticipated. However, he cautions that a decisive move above the high of 25,700 could open the door for further upside targets in the near term, potentially reaching the 26,000 to 26,200 levels.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, adds another layer of analysis by highlighting that the Nifty 50 index is currently trading near the upper Bollinger band, which indicates strength in the upward momentum. He identifies support at the 25,200 level and resistance at the 25,900 level. Dwarakanath notes that the smaller time frame momentum indicators are sloping upwards, further suggesting a potential rally from the current levels. He points out that the Keltner channel upper band level is placed at 25,430, which could act as an immediate bounce level in case of a downward movement. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, emphasizes the importance of candlestick patterns in analyzing market trends. He observes that the Nifty 50 has formed a 'Star Doji' and a 'Bullish Homing Pigeon' candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe. According to Ambala, 25,460 will serve as an immediate support level, while 25,630 will act as a resistance level. He suggests that a breakout or breakdown from this range could lead to a fresh move of 1% to 2%. Considering these technical aspects, Ambala anticipates that the Nifty 50 should gather support between 25,460 and 25,300, and encounter resistance near 25,630 and 25,850 during Wednesday's trading session. Turning to the Bank Nifty index, which tracks the performance of banking stocks, the index advanced 146.70 points, or 0.26%, on Tuesday, closing at 57,459.45. It formed a high wave candle on the daily chart for the second consecutive session, suggesting a period of consolidation amidst stock-specific activity. Bajaj Broking Market, in a note, stated that the Bank Nifty index is currently positioned above its immediate support zone of 57,000 to 56,800. Sustaining above this demand zone will maintain a constructive short-term bias, potentially paving the way for a move towards 58,500, a level derived from the measured move projection of the recent consolidation band between 56,000 and 53,500.
Conversely, a breach below 56,800 could trigger a corrective consolidation of the recent upswing, with the Bank Nifty index potentially oscillating within a broader consolidation zone of 56,000 to 57,600. The brokerage house recalibrates structural support to the 56,000 to 55,800 region, which represents a confluence of key technical indicators, including the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally (55,149 - 57,614). Hardik Matalia notes that the Bank Nifty formed a small bullish-bodied candle with a lower wick on the daily chart, indicating buying interest at lower levels. He emphasizes that the Bank Nifty index needs to hold above the key support of 57,000 to maintain its positive structure. A breach below this level could trigger extended selling pressure, potentially dragging the index towards the 56,700 to 56,400 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 57,600, while the 57,800 to 58,000 range remains a strong hurdle. A decisive breakout above this zone could open the doors for a strong bullish move towards new record highs. In conclusion, the Indian stock market is expected to open with a slightly positive bias on Wednesday, July 2nd, influenced by mixed global cues and trends in the Gift Nifty. The Sensex and Nifty 50 ended marginally higher on Tuesday, with the Nifty managing to stay above the 25,500 level. Analysts' predictions suggest a period of consolidation and indecisiveness in the market, with key support and resistance levels playing a crucial role in determining the direction of the indices. The Bank Nifty index also exhibits signs of consolidation, with its performance contingent on maintaining support above the 57,000 level. Traders and investors should closely monitor these factors and levels to make informed decisions in the upcoming trading session.
Source: Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 2