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The anticipated absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping from the upcoming BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro has ignited a flurry of speculation and diplomatic maneuvering, casting a shadow over the bloc's unity and highlighting the increasingly complex dynamics between its member states. Xi's decision to forego the summit, marking his first absence since assuming office in 2013, is officially attributed to a 'scheduling conflict,' but Brazilian officials and diplomatic observers suspect deeper underlying motives. This development coincides with a perceived shift in global power dynamics, particularly the growing prominence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the international stage, potentially fueling Xi's reluctance to participate in an event where Modi's presence could overshadow his own. The situation underscores the delicate balance of power within BRICS, a grouping initially conceived as a counterweight to Western dominance, and raises questions about its future trajectory in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.
The stated reason for Xi's absence, a 'scheduling conflict,' has been met with skepticism, particularly in Brazil. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government reportedly feels snubbed by Xi's decision, given Lula's recent visit to Beijing in May, which was viewed as a gesture of goodwill and an expectation of reciprocal engagement. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Brazilian officials are privately expressing their discontent, suggesting that Xi's absence stems from a desire to avoid being perceived as a 'supporting actor' to Modi at the summit. The invitation extended to Modi for a state dinner in Brazil, a move seen as elevating Modi's status, is believed to have further exacerbated the situation. This perception aligns with a broader narrative of Modi's rising influence in international forums, where his diplomatic skills and strategic positioning have garnered increasing attention. The optics of Modi and Lula sharing the spotlight, while Xi remains absent, are seen as potentially diminishing Xi's stature on the global stage, a prospect that may be unpalatable to a leader accustomed to commanding center stage.
Chinese officials, on the other hand, have attempted to downplay the significance of Xi's absence, emphasizing that Xi and Lula have already met twice in the past year, diminishing the necessity of another in-person encounter. Premier Li Qiang, a close confidant of Xi, is expected to lead the Chinese delegation at the summit, mirroring his representation of China at the G20 Summit in New Delhi in 2023. Despite these assurances, the unease within the Brazilian government is palpable. Celso Amorim, Lula's special advisor for international affairs, has openly voiced his concerns, stating that 'BRICS without China is not BRICS,' highlighting the crucial role China plays in the bloc's effectiveness and credibility. Amorim even cited the 2010 BRICS summit in BrasÃlia, where then-Chinese President Hu Jintao attended despite a major earthquake in China, underscoring the perceived importance of high-level representation.
The undercurrent of tension between India and China, stemming from the 2020 Himalayan border clashes, further complicates the situation. While Modi and Xi briefly met on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Russia in October 2024, the underlying issues remain unresolved, and the relationship remains strained. If Xi does indeed skip the Rio summit, the next potential meeting point between the two leaders could be the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, scheduled to be hosted by Beijing later this year. The absence of a face-to-face meeting between Modi and Xi at the BRICS Summit could further delay any progress in easing the tensions between the two Asian giants, potentially impacting the broader geopolitical landscape.
The expansion of the BRICS bloc, with the inclusion of new full members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, adds another layer of complexity to the dynamic. While the expansion is intended to strengthen the bloc's global influence, it also introduces potential challenges in terms of maintaining cohesion and aligning diverse interests. Xi's absence could be interpreted as an early indication that unity among the original core members is starting to fray, particularly as India and China pursue divergent global agendas. Brazil, caught in the middle of this rivalry, finds itself in a precarious position, attempting to navigate the competing interests of its two most important BRICS partners.
The Brazilian foreign ministry has remained officially silent on Xi's absence, stating that it 'will not comment on internal deliberations of foreign delegations.' However, the underlying frustration is evident, as Brazil seeks to maintain the bloc's relevance and effectiveness in a rapidly changing world. China, for its part, continues to express its support for Brazil's BRICS presidency, with Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stating that Beijing aims 'to promote deeper cooperation' among BRICS members. Guo emphasized that BRICS nations maintain their 'strategic resolve and work together for global peace, stability, and development.' However, these assurances may not be enough to quell the concerns surrounding Xi's absence and the potential implications for the future of the BRICS bloc.
The situation surrounding Xi's potential absence from the BRICS Summit highlights the increasing importance of symbolism and optics in international relations. In an era where image and alliances are carefully choreographed, the act of showing up, shaking hands, delivering keynotes, and raising toasts carries significant weight. Xi's decision to potentially skip the summit underscores the importance of these symbolic gestures and the potential impact they can have on perceptions of power and influence. The BRICS bloc, once envisioned as a unified force challenging the established global order, now faces internal divisions and competing interests, raising questions about its long-term viability and its ability to shape the future of international relations. The summit in Rio de Janeiro, even without Xi's presence, will be a crucial test of the bloc's resilience and its capacity to navigate the complex challenges of the 21st century.