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The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), envisioned as a platform for regional security and cooperation, particularly in combating terrorism, faced a significant setback at its recent Defence Ministers’ meeting in Qingdao. The failure to issue a joint communiqué, attributed to disagreements over the inclusion of language condemning terrorism, underscores the deep-seated tensions within the 10-nation grouping. India, represented by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, was compelled to withdraw from the joint declaration due to the absence of any reference to terrorism, reportedly at the insistence of Pakistan. This development is particularly concerning for India, given the recent Pahalgam attack and the subsequent launch of Operation Sindoor, which has reinforced India’s determination to combat terrorism. What is even more troubling is the reported consideration by some member states, including host China and Russia, to include references to “disturbances in Balochistan” at Pakistan's behest, while simultaneously omitting any mention of the Pahalgam attack or cross-border terrorism, despite India's requests. This stance directly contradicts the SCO's founding Charter of 2002, which explicitly emphasizes the need for “mutual intraregional efforts to curb terrorism, separatism and extremism.” The presence of the Director of the SCO's Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure further highlights the incongruity of this situation. The anodyne statements issued by the SCO Secretariat and the Chinese Foreign Ministry, focusing on “cooperation on modern security challenges and threats,” failed to address the core issues at hand, leaving many to question the SCO's commitment to its stated objectives. The upcoming SCO Foreign Ministers’ meeting in July and the SCO Summit in August-September will be crucial in determining whether India's concerns are adequately addressed and whether the organization can regain its focus on combating terrorism effectively.
The Qingdao meeting raises critical questions about India's strategic approach to the SCO and its ability to effectively communicate its concerns within the organization. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of a “new normal” after Operation Sindoor, which presumably involves a more assertive stance on terrorism, needs to be effectively translated into diplomatic action within the SCO framework. China's seemingly unhelpful role as Chair on this issue is particularly disconcerting, especially given the recent thaw in relations between India and China. Unlike the SAARC grouping, where India traditionally wielded significant influence, the SCO is dominated by its original founders: China, Russia, and the Central Asian States. This power dynamic necessitates a more nuanced and strategic approach from India. It is worth noting that Mr. Singh's participation in the SCO meeting occurred shortly after India disassociated itself from a statement condemning Israel's June 13 attack on SCO member Iran, highlighting the complexities of navigating competing interests within the organization. Furthermore, the government's decision to send parliamentary delegations to 32 countries following Operation Sindoor, but not to any SCO member-country, may have been a missed opportunity to strengthen India's position within the grouping. While External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar chaired a meeting of the India-Central Asia forum in June, it is crucial for India to actively engage with all SCO members to address their concerns and build consensus on counter-terrorism efforts.
India's decision to forgo hosting an in-person Summit of the SCO during its turn in 2023, for reasons that remain unclear, might still be a source of resentment among some member states. By distancing itself from the grouping, which remains an important regional forum despite its recent challenges, India risks leaving a vacuum that could be exploited by Pakistan to further its own agenda. Instead of simply “crying foul” over the SCO's shortcomings, the Indian government must proactively convince its members that their long-term interests lie in strengthening cross-regional support against terrorism. This requires a concerted effort to build trust, address concerns, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to the SCO's founding principles. India needs to frame its anti-terrorism efforts as being in the collective interest of the SCO, emphasizing the threat that terrorism poses to regional stability and economic development. A more robust and proactive diplomatic strategy, coupled with a willingness to engage constructively with all SCO members, is essential for India to effectively advance its interests and ensure that the SCO remains a viable platform for combating terrorism in the region. Failing to do so could have significant consequences for India's security and its regional influence. The path forward requires a delicate balance of assertiveness and diplomacy, with a clear focus on building consensus and strengthening the SCO's commitment to its core mission.
India's strategic communication needs a significant overhaul. The 'new normal' rhetoric, while powerful domestically, lacks specific articulation within the SCO context. What concrete actions, beyond military operations like Operation Sindoor, are being proposed to address cross-border terrorism? How does India envision closer intelligence sharing and joint counter-terrorism exercises with SCO members? These are critical questions that need clear and compelling answers. Furthermore, India needs to proactively address the concerns of other SCO members, particularly those in Central Asia, who may have different priorities and perspectives on regional security. Engaging in open and transparent dialogue, addressing their specific needs, and fostering a sense of shared ownership in the counter-terrorism agenda is crucial for building trust and forging a united front against terrorism. The current situation highlights a critical need for India to enhance its diplomatic capabilities within the SCO framework, fostering stronger relationships with key stakeholders and effectively communicating its concerns in a way that resonates with the broader regional context. The upcoming SCO meetings represent a crucial opportunity for India to course-correct and reassert its role as a key player in combating terrorism within the SCO region. The stakes are high, and a failure to act decisively could have significant ramifications for India's security and its regional standing.
Source: Missed opportunity: on India, the terror fight and the SCO