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The G7 summit in Canada, attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, unfolds against a backdrop of significant geopolitical shifts and internal divisions within the Western alliance. While distractions like Khalistani protests and President Trump's comments on Indo-Pak relations exist, the core issue is the fragmentation of the G7 itself. Once a symbol of unified strategic purpose among leading democracies, the G7 now grapples with contradictions across various domains, including trade, technology, climate change, and regional security concerns spanning Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. India, though not a member, benefits from its regular presence at these summits, gaining a crucial platform to advance its national interests, elevate its diplomatic standing, and contribute to shaping a new multipolar world order. This context presents Modi with an opportunity to directly assess the dynamics within the West and capitalize on them to bolster India's security and economic prosperity.
For a long time, Indian political and policy circles have often perceived the West as a unified entity. However, a deeper historical analysis reveals that competition and contestation among Western powers have been a recurring theme, particularly in the centuries leading up to India's independence. As European nations developed capitalist economies, they engaged in fierce competition for colonies, resources, and markets. These inter-imperialist rivalries were crucial drivers of global politics. The rise of the Soviet Union after World War I further complicated these dynamics. Both sides within the Western alignment sought the support of the Soviet Union. It was only after the war that the East-West dichotomy became the dominant framework for viewing global politics. Despite the Cold War-era unity against communism, underlying intra-Western differences persisted, albeit largely tactical in nature. The collapse of the Soviet Union did not immediately erase these divisions. A sense of triumph, rooted in the perceived victory of capitalism and liberal democracy, initially held the alliance together. However, fault lines soon began to emerge.
By the mid-1990s, France was already expressing concerns about America's perceived unrestrained 'hyperpower,' a sentiment that resonated even among close US allies. Before Beijing, Moscow, or even Delhi began advocating for a multipolar world order, it was Paris that championed this concept. France also reached out to India to collaborate in shaping this new order. While Delhi engaged with Russia and China in promoting multipolarity, it simultaneously strengthened its ties with the West to enhance its economic and technological capabilities. This dual approach defined India's multi-alignment strategy. It is worth remembering that France and Germany openly opposed the United States at the UN Security Council regarding the planned invasion of Iraq in 2003. Today, divisions over the Middle East are even more pronounced. Europe is increasingly critical of Israeli policies, while the US continues to provide unwavering support.
The 2018 G7 summit in Canada, during Donald Trump's first term, was marked by significant tension after he imposed steel and aluminum tariffs on European allies. An iconic photograph captured Chancellor Angela Merkel and other leaders confronting a defiant Trump. He departed the summit early, later accusing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of dishonesty regarding summit discussions. While the Biden administration attempted to restore Western unity, Trump's potential return to power signals a renewed shift towards American unilateralism. His primary focus is on advancing American interests, often at the expense of collective Western goals. His 'MAGA' coalition targets not only European economic policies but also their social norms. Trump's anti-woke stance has evolved into a broader critique of European liberalism, and his support for far-right parties across Europe represents a new level of political intervention.
The Trump administration has implemented extensive tariffs, including a 10% duty on nearly all G7 partners, with threats of further escalation, particularly targeting Canada. These actions have caused alarm among European leaders and the Canadian government, who view them as a direct challenge to the rules-based international trading system that the G7 has long championed. US-Canada relations have been particularly strained. Trump's inflammatory comments, questioning Canadian sovereignty and casually referencing annexation, have deepened tensions. Prime Minister Mark Carney, presiding over his first summit, is working to rally fellow G7 leaders to counterbalance Washington's assertiveness, especially on trade and defense matters.
Russia's war in Ukraine is another significant source of discord. While the G7 continues to support Ukraine and impose sanctions on Moscow, there is growing uncertainty regarding the depth of US commitment. European leaders are anxious about Trump's unpredictability and the potential erosion of transatlantic solidarity. This anxiety is amplified by recent developments in the Middle East, particularly following Israel's strike on Iran. The regional crisis has increased the urgency of the summit but has also exposed divergent positions on oil, security, and diplomacy. Defense spending has become a new flashpoint. Trump's demand that G7 partners increase military budgets to 5% of GDP, significantly above NATO's 2% guideline, has met resistance. Most members cite domestic constraints and question the need for such an aggressive increase.
Disputes also persist over climate change and digital policy. Trump's skepticism about ambitious climate targets and global digital regulation frameworks has hindered consensus, despite European pressure for forward movement. Acknowledging these divisions, Carney has abandoned the tradition of a joint communiqué, opting instead for a summary note that reflects the absence of consensus. The 2025 summit thus serves as a powerful reminder of the challenges facing multilateralism in an era of renewed nationalism. Against this backdrop, the Khalistani protests and Trump's occasional remarks about Kashmir pale into insignificance. Carney's invitation to Modi underscores India's growing importance as a partner for the G7. Modi would do well to ignore the distractions, work toward repairing ties with Canada, and re-engage with Trump. More importantly, he must assess the internal contradictions of the West, minimize their fallout for Indian interests, deepen bilateral partnerships with G7 members, and position India as a key stakeholder in shaping the global architecture that will inevitably emerge from the current turbulence. Modi's strategic navigation through these complexities will be crucial for securing India's future in a multipolar world.
Source: C Raja Mohan writes: At G7 summit in Canada, PM Modi will assess a divided West