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The recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, marked by Israeli airstrikes targeting various locations within Iran, raises critical questions about Israel's true objectives. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly stated that the strikes are aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, evidence suggests that Israel's ambitions might extend beyond mere counter-proliferation. The targeted locations, including Iran's state broadcaster, and the rhetoric emanating from Israeli officials and analysts, point towards a possible desire for regime change in Tehran. This raises significant concerns about the potential for a wider conflict, the role of the United States, and the potential consequences for the Middle East region and global stability. The situation is further complicated by the shifting political landscape in the United States and the conflicting signals coming from the Trump administration, making it difficult to predict the future trajectory of the conflict. The international community watches with bated breath as the situation unfolds, with the potential for either a negotiated resolution or a devastating escalation.
The debate surrounding Israel's intentions is multifaceted. On the one hand, the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran is a significant security concern for Israel, given the historical animosity between the two countries and Iran's past pronouncements regarding Israel's existence. From this perspective, the airstrikes can be seen as a preemptive measure to neutralize Iran's nuclear capabilities and prevent a potentially catastrophic scenario. On the other hand, the targeting of non-nuclear facilities, such as the state broadcaster, and the explicit or implicit references to regime change by Israeli figures, suggest a broader agenda. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, notes that the targeting and Israeli public messaging indicate that the operation could be “something much more than just a counter-proliferation operation.” Similarly, retired General Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's national security council, acknowledges that regime change, while not the “explicit” goal, is the “implicit goal or dream of hope of the Israeli government.” The complexity of the situation lies in disentangling the legitimate security concerns from the potential for a more ambitious, and potentially destabilizing, objective.
The potential for regime change in Iran is fraught with uncertainty. While the Iranian regime has been weakened by sanctions, internal dissent, and regional challenges, it remains a formidable force with a well-established security apparatus. Recent nationwide protests, while indicative of widespread dissatisfaction, have not yet coalesced into a unified movement capable of overthrowing the government. Moreover, the airstrikes, while potentially weakening the regime, could also trigger a “rally around the flag” effect, galvanizing support for the government and complicating any efforts to instigate an uprising. Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, cautions that the bombing could provoke a backlash from disaffected Iranians, leading to a shift in public opinion in favor of the regime. Furthermore, the potential for external intervention, particularly from the United States, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The experience of the past decades has shown that regime change operations in the Middle East often lead to instability, violence, and unintended consequences, raising serious concerns about the potential for a similar outcome in Iran.
The role of the United States in this evolving conflict is crucial. The Trump administration's approach to Iran has been marked by inconsistency and conflicting signals. While the administration initially expressed a willingness to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran, it has also embraced Israel's airstrikes and hinted at the possibility of a more aggressive stance. The resurgence of regime change advocates, such as John Bolton and Lindsey Graham, further complicates the picture, raising the specter of direct US military involvement. However, it is unclear whether Trump is prepared to commit to a long-term military intervention in Iran, given his past criticisms of “neo-cons” and “nation builders.” The administration's internal divisions, with some advisors advocating for restraint and others pushing for a more hawkish approach, further obfuscate the US's strategic objectives. The situation is further complicated by the potential for unintended consequences, such as a wider regional conflict, a rise in extremism, and a disruption of global energy markets. A careful assessment of the potential risks and benefits of any course of action is essential to ensure that US involvement contributes to regional stability rather than exacerbating existing tensions.
The historical context of regime change operations in the Middle East is a crucial consideration. The interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya have demonstrated the challenges and potential pitfalls of forcibly removing autocratic governments. The resulting instability, violence, and humanitarian crises have served as a cautionary tale, highlighting the importance of considering the long-term consequences of regime change. The hope that regime change in Iran would resemble the relatively less chaotic transition in Syria after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad is optimistic, given the vastly different circumstances. The Iranian regime is deeply entrenched, and the country's complex political and social dynamics make it difficult to predict the outcome of any regime change effort. A more realistic scenario might resemble the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War in Iraq, where a weakened central government loses control over parts of its territory, but the regime itself remains entrenched. This could lead to a prolonged period of instability, violence, and regional tensions, with far-reaching consequences for the Middle East and the global community. The lessons of the past must inform any decisions regarding future interventions in the region, to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.
Ultimately, the situation in Iran is fluid and unpredictable. Trump's stance on the war has shifted on a dime in recent days and could shift again. Trump's restraint-oriented advisers may have lost some influence, but wealthy governments across the Persian Gulf and major oil companies may also be wary about a long war that could put them in the crosshairs. Trump has traditionally been more comfortable with short, overwhelming military actions — like the Soleimani strike, or the strikes against Syria in 2017 — than long, drawn-out wars, which this very well could become. The international community must work together to de-escalate tensions, promote dialogue, and find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The alternative is a descent into a protracted and devastating war that could have catastrophic consequences for the region and the world. The stakes are high, and the need for responsible leadership and sound judgment is paramount.
Considering the perspectives within Iran is also crucial. While opposition figures have expressed a range of opinions, from cautious hope to outright rejection of external intervention, it is important to recognize the diversity of views within Iranian society. The complexities of public opinion in a country of 90 million people, where speaking out against the government can be dangerous, cannot be overstated. The potential for a “rally around the flag” effect, as noted by Ellie Geranmayeh, highlights the importance of understanding the nuances of Iranian public opinion and avoiding actions that could inadvertently strengthen the regime. Engaging with Iranian civil society, supporting human rights, and promoting dialogue are essential steps towards fostering a more stable and democratic future for Iran. However, these efforts must be undertaken with sensitivity and respect for Iranian sovereignty, avoiding any actions that could be perceived as interference in internal affairs. The future of Iran ultimately lies in the hands of the Iranian people, and their voices must be heard and respected.
Source: Is Israel trying to destroy Iran’s nukes — or topple its government?