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The United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) State of World Population Report for 2025 paints a complex picture of India's demographic landscape. India has surpassed China to become the world's most populous nation, reaching 1.46 billion people. This milestone is juxtaposed with a significant decline in the country's total fertility rate (TFR), which has now dipped below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, a rate needed to maintain a stable population size across generations. This dual trend of a burgeoning population and decreasing fertility rate presents both opportunities and challenges for India's future. The report projects that India’s population will peak at around 1.7 billion over the next 40 years before beginning to shrink, highlighting the long-term implications of current demographic trends. The situation demands a nuanced understanding of the factors driving these changes and a policy response that prioritizes individual reproductive rights and addresses existing inequalities.
One of the key findings of the UNFPA report is the substantial regional variation in fertility rates across India. While the national average TFR stands at 1.9, concealing stark differences between states and socioeconomic groups, it underscores a divide between regions with high and low fertility. States like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh continue to exhibit high fertility rates, attributed to factors such as limited access to contraception, inadequate healthcare services, and deeply entrenched gender norms. In these regions, women often face significant barriers to making informed reproductive choices, leading to unintended pregnancies and larger family sizes. Conversely, states like Delhi, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu have achieved below-replacement fertility levels. This decline is largely driven by factors such as increased urbanization, higher levels of education among women, greater participation in the workforce, and rising costs of raising children. Urban, educated middle-class couples in these states are increasingly delaying or opting out of parenthood, further contributing to the decline in fertility rates.
The UNFPA report emphasizes the critical need to shift the focus from alarmist concerns about population decline to prioritizing reproductive rights and empowering individuals to make informed choices about their sexual and reproductive health. The report highlights that millions of women in India still face significant barriers to exercising their reproductive autonomy. Many women are unable to freely decide whether and when to have children, reflecting a lack of access to contraception, information, and quality healthcare services. The UNFPA advocates for a fundamental shift in population policy discourse, urging governments to prioritize reproductive rights and support systems over coercive measures or pronatalist policies. The report argues that empowering women and ensuring access to comprehensive reproductive healthcare services are essential for achieving both individual well-being and sustainable development. Focusing on reproductive agency, defined as a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family, is paramount.
To further understand the challenges related to reproductive choices, the UNFPA-YouGov survey conducted across 14 countries, including India, reveals that a significant proportion of Indian adults have experienced unintended pregnancies or have been unable to have the number of children they desired. The survey found that one in three Indian adults reported experiencing unintended pregnancies, while another 30 percent said they were unable to have as many or as few children as they wanted. Notably, 23 percent of respondents experienced both. These findings underscore the persistent unmet need for contraception and family planning services in India. The survey also identifies financial constraints as the most significant barrier to achieving desired family sizes. Nearly four in ten respondents cited financial limitations as a reason they could not have the families they desired. Other hurdles include job insecurity, housing issues, and lack of access to reliable childcare. These findings highlight the interconnectedness of reproductive choices with broader social and economic factors.
The implications of India's changing demographic landscape extend far beyond the realm of population statistics. As the population ages and fertility rates decline, India will face new challenges related to healthcare, social security, and economic growth. A shrinking workforce could put pressure on the country's economic productivity, while an aging population will require increased investment in healthcare and elder care services. To address these challenges, India needs to implement policies that promote healthy aging, support workforce participation, and ensure access to affordable healthcare and social security for all citizens. Furthermore, the country must address the root causes of regional disparities in fertility rates by investing in education, healthcare, and women's empowerment programs in states with high fertility rates. Creating an environment where all individuals have the opportunity to exercise their reproductive rights and achieve their desired family sizes is essential for building a more equitable and prosperous society.
In conclusion, India's demographic transition presents a complex set of challenges and opportunities. The combination of a large and growing population with declining fertility rates requires a comprehensive and nuanced policy response. Prioritizing reproductive rights, addressing regional disparities, and investing in education, healthcare, and social security are crucial for ensuring a sustainable and equitable future for India. The UNFPA report serves as a timely reminder that population policies should be grounded in human rights and focused on empowering individuals to make informed choices about their reproductive health. Only through a rights-based approach can India harness the potential of its demographic dividend and build a society where all individuals can thrive.
Source: India’s fertility rate drops below replacement level even as population hits 1.46 billion: UN report