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Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Cyprus represents more than just a routine diplomatic engagement; it signifies a deliberate and evolving strategic response by India to what it perceives as growing hostility from Turkey. This visit, only the third by an Indian Prime Minister to Cyprus, following Indira Gandhi's in 1983 and Atal Bihari Vajpayee's in 2002, arrives at a critical juncture. India has become increasingly displeased with Turkey's overt diplomatic and seemingly military support for Pakistan, especially since the events such as the hypothetical Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor. This displeasure has fueled a policy shift, leading India to actively cultivate closer relationships with Turkey's regional rivals, including Greece, Armenia, Egypt, and now, most prominently, Cyprus. These nations share a common ground in their own disputes and contentions with Turkey, creating a natural alignment of interests that India is now leveraging to its advantage. The strategic encirclement of Turkey is not merely a symbolic gesture. It's a carefully calculated diplomatic maneuver designed to exert pressure on Turkey, counter its growing influence in international forums, and protect India's own strategic interests in the region and beyond. Turkey's increasingly vocal stance against India, particularly on the Kashmir issue, and its deepening military and diplomatic ties with Pakistan have been a source of significant concern for New Delhi. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attempts to position himself as a leader of the Islamic world and his challenges to India's positions at the United Nations have further exacerbated tensions. In response, India has adopted a multi-pronged strategy that includes strengthening diplomatic, economic, and military ties with Turkey's adversaries. Modi's visit to Cyprus is particularly significant because it underscores the growing importance of Cyprus as a key entry point for India's ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). This proposed trade route aims to connect India with Europe via the Middle East, and Cyprus, strategically located at the eastern edge of the Mediterranean, holds immense potential as a crucial node in this corridor. Cyprus is not only a member of the European Union but also a strong supporter of India in global forums. This visit is expected to provide a significant boost to bilateral trade, cultural diplomacy, and potentially even defense collaboration between the two countries. The timing of Modi's visit is also critical considering the ongoing Cyprus-Turkey conflict. This conflict, which has been simmering since 1974 when Turkey invaded northern Cyprus, remains a major source of regional instability. Turkey's continued military presence in the north, its refusal to recognize the Republic of Cyprus, and its aggressive disputes over maritime borders have further complicated the situation. Cyprus, rich in gas reserves, faces significant challenges in exporting its gas due to Turkish obstructionism in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey's actions directly impede Cyprus's ability to develop its natural resources and benefit from its strategic location. India's overt engagement with Cyprus sends a strong message of support for Cyprus in its struggle against Turkish aggression. It strengthens the anti-Turkey bloc in the eastern Mediterranean and signals India's commitment to upholding international law and the territorial integrity of Cyprus. Moreover, Cyprus's geographic location makes it a natural hub for trade, energy transit, and strategic influence in one of the world's most contested seas. Its strategic location, straddling Europe, Asia, and Africa, makes it an ideal partner for India as it seeks to expand its presence in the region. As the East Med gas pipeline project remains stalled, Cyprus is actively exploring alternative routes to export its gas to Europe, including via Greece. Its significant natural gas reserves, while modest on a global scale, hold immense strategic value for a small nation located at the crossroads of three continents. Cyprus is emerging as a key player in the region's evolving energy landscape, and its reserves are a critical component of potential supply routes to European markets, particularly as the EU aims to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. Exporting this gas via Greece or Egypt, while bypassing Turkey, would directly challenge Ankara's influence over Eastern Mediterranean energy geopolitics. This growing energy clout not only enhances Cyprus's regional standing but also adds weight to India's strategic engagement with Nicosia, particularly within the framework of the IMEC. Turkey's obstruction of Cyprus and Greece's maritime ambitions, coupled with regional instability, makes countries like India valuable partners for Nicosia – not only diplomatically but also potentially for energy and infrastructure cooperation. Modi's visit could unlock new possibilities in energy security, digital corridors, maritime and defense cooperation. The relationship between India and Cyprus has been characterized by steady friendship. Cyprus has consistently supported India on various international platforms, including backing India's nuclear tests in 1998, supporting India's candidature at the UN Security Council, and standing with India during Indo-Pak crises. The country also supported India during its 2008 nuclear deal with the US and supports India's entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). On issues of terrorism and Kashmir, Cyprus has refrained from siding with Pakistan or the OIC line, a sharp contrast to Turkey's vocal interventions. India, for its part, has consistently supported the territorial integrity of Cyprus and called for a resolution of the Cyprus problem under UNSC resolutions and international law. Modi's visit reaffirms this position while deepening the bilateral relationship further. By visiting Cyprus, the Prime Minister is sending a clear message to Ankara and the entire region that India will not remain silent in the face of Turkey's provocations. India is willing to build durable, public partnerships with Turkey's rivals. This visit, coming on the heels of Modi's visit to Greece in 2023 and increasingly impactful defense exports to Armenia, is part of a quiet but unmistakable strategic encirclement of Turkey – a diplomatic doctrine that maximizes India's leverage through coalitions and shared interests in Turkey's backyard. This signals a significant shift in India's foreign policy, one that prioritizes proactive engagement and strategic alliances to counter perceived threats and advance its national interests.
The core strategic motivation for India's engagement with Cyprus stems from Turkey's increasingly assertive foreign policy, particularly its alignment with Pakistan and its vocal criticism of India's stance on Kashmir. This has prompted India to seek out alliances and partnerships that can counterbalance Turkey's regional influence. The encirclement strategy is not solely about containing Turkey; it's also about securing India's own strategic interests. By strengthening ties with countries like Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia, India gains access to key geopolitical locations and enhances its ability to project power in the region. Furthermore, these alliances create opportunities for economic cooperation, particularly in areas such as energy and infrastructure development. The IMEC corridor, for example, is a crucial component of India's economic strategy, and Cyprus plays a vital role in its success. The energy sector is another key area of cooperation. Cyprus's natural gas reserves hold significant potential for diversifying Europe's energy supply and reducing its dependence on Russian gas. India's involvement in the development and export of these reserves could create new economic opportunities and strengthen its energy security. From a geopolitical standpoint, India's engagement with Cyprus and other regional rivals of Turkey represents a shift towards a more proactive and assertive foreign policy. India is no longer content to remain on the sidelines; it is actively seeking to shape the regional balance of power in its favor. This strategy is not without its risks. Turkey is a powerful regional player with a strong military and a well-established network of alliances. India's encirclement strategy could provoke a backlash from Turkey, potentially leading to increased tensions and instability in the region. However, India believes that the benefits of this strategy outweigh the risks. By standing up to Turkey and forging strategic alliances, India is sending a message that it is a rising power that will not be intimidated. The long-term implications of India's encirclement strategy remain to be seen. However, it is clear that this represents a significant shift in India's foreign policy and could have far-reaching consequences for the region.
Beyond the immediate geopolitical considerations, India's approach to Cyprus also reflects a broader strategic outlook that prioritizes multilateralism and regional cooperation. India recognizes that it cannot achieve its foreign policy objectives alone and that it needs to work in partnership with other countries that share its values and interests. The relationship between India and Cyprus is a prime example of this approach. Both countries are committed to upholding international law, promoting regional stability, and fostering economic development. They have a long history of cooperation on a wide range of issues, from trade and investment to culture and education. India's engagement with Cyprus is not just about countering Turkey; it's also about building a stronger and more resilient regional order. By working with countries like Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia, India is helping to create a network of like-minded nations that can collectively address common challenges, such as terrorism, climate change, and economic inequality. This multilateral approach is essential for ensuring long-term stability and prosperity in the region. In addition to its diplomatic and political efforts, India is also investing in economic and cultural ties with Cyprus. This includes promoting tourism, encouraging investment, and fostering people-to-people exchanges. By deepening these ties, India hopes to create a stronger and more enduring relationship with Cyprus that can withstand the challenges of a rapidly changing world. The future of India's engagement with Cyprus looks bright. Both countries are committed to strengthening their relationship and working together to achieve common goals. As India continues to rise as a global power, its engagement with Cyprus will become even more important. The strategic encirclement of Turkey is just one aspect of India's broader foreign policy strategy, but it is a significant one. It represents a shift towards a more proactive and assertive approach that is designed to protect India's interests and promote regional stability. By engaging with countries like Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia, India is building a stronger and more resilient regional order that can contribute to a more peaceful and prosperous world. The impact of climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean makes countries like Cyprus more valuable to India as global warming will require better trade routes less dependent on traditional passages vulnerable to rising ocean levels and changing weather patterns. These new trade routes can allow India to become a hub for technology that mitigates against climate change.
The strategic significance of Cyprus extends beyond its geographical location and natural resources; it lies in its unwavering support for India on the international stage. Cyprus has consistently stood by India during critical moments, demonstrating a level of solidarity that is rare in international relations. From backing India's nuclear tests in 1998, a decision that faced considerable international scrutiny, to advocating for India's membership in the UN Security Council, Cyprus has consistently championed India's interests. This unwavering support stems from a shared commitment to democratic values, respect for international law, and a desire for a peaceful and stable world order. Cyprus's support for India during the 2008 nuclear deal with the US was particularly noteworthy. At a time when India faced significant opposition from some quarters, Cyprus stood firm in its support, recognizing the importance of the deal for India's energy security and its role in promoting global non-proliferation efforts. Similarly, Cyprus has consistently supported India's entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), recognizing India's impeccable record on nuclear safety and security. This support is particularly valuable given the ongoing efforts to expand the NSG and strengthen the global non-proliferation regime. On issues related to terrorism and Kashmir, Cyprus has maintained a principled stance, refraining from siding with Pakistan or the OIC line. This is in stark contrast to Turkey's vocal interventions on these issues, which have often been critical of India's policies. Cyprus's balanced and objective approach to these sensitive issues has earned India's respect and appreciation. India, in turn, has consistently supported the territorial integrity of Cyprus and called for a resolution of the Cyprus problem under UNSC resolutions and international law. India recognizes the importance of finding a just and lasting solution to the Cyprus issue, one that respects the rights of all Cypriots and promotes peace and stability in the region. Modi's visit to Cyprus reaffirms India's commitment to this principle and signals its willingness to play a constructive role in finding a solution to the Cyprus problem. The strategic partnership between India and Cyprus is not just about geopolitical calculations; it is also about shared values and a common vision for the future. Both countries are committed to promoting democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. They are also committed to fostering economic development, promoting sustainable development, and addressing global challenges such as climate change and terrorism. As India continues to rise as a global power, its strategic partnership with Cyprus will become even more important. Together, India and Cyprus can work to promote peace, stability, and prosperity in the region and beyond. The impact of geopolitical tension on trade has impacted relations between India and Cyprus, especially as some governments continue to exert undue influence over international organizations to punish those that do not agree with them.
The increasing convergence of interests between India and Cyprus is driven by a combination of factors, including shared strategic concerns, economic opportunities, and a growing recognition of the importance of bilateral cooperation in addressing regional and global challenges. One of the key drivers of this convergence is the increasing recognition of the strategic importance of the Eastern Mediterranean region. The region is a critical transit route for energy supplies, a major hub for trade and investment, and a key battleground for geopolitical influence. As a result, countries like India and Cyprus have a shared interest in ensuring stability and security in the region. Another key driver is the growing economic opportunities that are emerging in the region. Cyprus, with its strategic location and its strong ties to Europe, is well-positioned to serve as a gateway for Indian companies seeking to expand their presence in the European market. India, with its rapidly growing economy and its vast consumer market, offers significant opportunities for Cypriot companies seeking to expand their presence in the Indian market. In addition to these factors, there is also a growing recognition of the importance of bilateral cooperation in addressing regional and global challenges. India and Cyprus share a common interest in combating terrorism, promoting sustainable development, and addressing climate change. By working together, India and Cyprus can achieve more than they could alone. The strategic partnership between India and Cyprus is not just about governments; it is also about people. There are strong cultural and people-to-people ties between India and Cyprus, which provide a solid foundation for the bilateral relationship. As India continues to rise as a global power, its strategic partnership with Cyprus will become even more important. Together, India and Cyprus can work to promote peace, stability, and prosperity in the region and beyond. The partnership can lead to the rise of education exchanges especially as India has become a global leader in technology and Cyprus has a rich history of cultural innovation. This history extends to the importance of art and culture that will enrich the lives of both countries.
Source: PM Modi In Cyprus: India's Power Move Signals Growing Strategic Encirclement Of Turkey