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The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)'s Yearbook 2025 paints a stark picture of a world teetering on the brink of a renewed nuclear arms race. As global security tensions escalate, particularly with the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, the report highlights the concerning trend of nuclear powers expanding their arsenals and modernizing their delivery systems. Amidst this global landscape, the report specifically focuses on the regional rivalry between India and Pakistan, revealing that India has not only widened its lead in terms of nuclear warhead numbers but is also making significant technological advancements in missile systems and delivery capabilities. This analysis, drawing upon SIPRI's decades of tracking global armaments, disarmament, and international security trends, provides a critical assessment of the shifting nuclear balance and the implications for regional and global stability.
The report begins by examining the major players in the global nuclear landscape. Russia, despite facing setbacks in modernizing certain systems, remains the leading nuclear power with an estimated 5,880 warheads. The United States follows closely behind, possessing approximately 5,244 nuclear warheads and undergoing its own comprehensive modernization program. China, however, emerges as the most dynamic player, rapidly expanding its arsenal and potentially possessing 1,500 warheads by 2035, a development that could fundamentally alter nuclear deterrence norms. France and the United Kingdom are also highlighted, with France investing in next-generation systems and considering a broader role for its nuclear deterrent in European defense, while the UK is reversing disarmament trends and increasing its warhead cap. This global overview sets the stage for understanding the specific dynamics between India and Pakistan within the broader context of escalating global nuclear competition.
Turning to the Indo-Pakistani rivalry, the SIPRI report underscores India's growing advantage. India is estimated to possess 172 nuclear warheads, a modest increase, but the key development lies in its technological advancements. The development of canisterised missile systems, which allow warheads to be stored and transported pre-mounted onto missiles, signifies a potential shift towards faster launch readiness and a more flexible deterrence strategy. Furthermore, the speculation that India's future missiles may be equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) indicates a significant increase in strike capability and survivability. Pakistan, on the other hand, is estimated to possess around 170 warheads and continues to develop new missile delivery systems and produce fissile material. However, unlike India, Pakistan maintains an ambiguous nuclear doctrine heavily focused on short-range tactical nuclear weapons, which many analysts consider destabilizing. The report suggests that Pakistan's arsenal could grow further, driven by its desire to match India's advancements, but its opaque doctrine and history of proliferation links remain a significant concern.
The implications of India's nuclear edge over Pakistan are multifaceted. From a strategic perspective, India's advancements in missile technology and delivery capabilities enhance its deterrent posture and potentially reduce its vulnerability to a first strike. The development of MIRVs, in particular, would significantly complicate Pakistan's defense planning and require a more sophisticated and costly response. However, this technological asymmetry could also create instability, potentially incentivizing Pakistan to adopt more aggressive or riskier strategies to maintain deterrence. The report highlights the destabilizing nature of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine as it is designed to be used in a battlefield setting which increases the chance of its use. The lack of transparency and robust oversight mechanisms in Pakistan's nuclear program further exacerbate these concerns, raising the specter of proliferation and accidental escalation.
The SIPRI report also considers the broader regional and global context. The escalating Israel-Iran war, coupled with the absence of regional arms control frameworks and the collapse of the JCPOA nuclear deal, creates a volatile environment where miscalculation and escalation are heightened risks. The report also analyzes the nuclear capabilities of Israel and North Korea, highlighting the dangers of ambiguity, particularly in active war zones, and the potential for tactical nuclear weapons to lower the threshold for nuclear use. These factors underscore the urgency of addressing the underlying tensions and promoting dialogue and arms control measures to prevent further proliferation and escalation.
The report also notes China’s growing arsenal. Beijing has constructed over 350 new ICBM silos, indicating its intentions to drastically increase its second strike capability. SIPRI also notes that China may now be keeping some warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime, a departure from its earlier policy. At its current pace, China could possess 1,500 warheads by 2035, rivalling the US and Russia in strategic reach, a shift that could fundamentally redraw nuclear deterrence norms. This growth highlights the need for the United States to increase their efforts to deter China. It also indicates the growing importance of the relationship between China and India. India is growing in its ability to protect itself but must maintain diplomatic relations with China to ensure safety.
The conclusion of the SIPRI report is a sobering reminder of the dangers of a world increasingly characterized by nuclear proliferation and escalating tensions. The erosion of global norms, the absence of effective arms control agreements, and the rise of destabilizing technologies all contribute to a heightened risk of nuclear conflict. The report's specific focus on India and Pakistan highlights the need for regional stability and transparency in nuclear doctrine. The authors warn that nuclear weapons do not guarantee security and that the immense risks of escalation and miscalculation outweigh any perceived benefits. Ultimately, the SIPRI report serves as a call to action for policymakers and diplomats to prioritize de-escalation, dialogue, and arms control in order to avert a catastrophic nuclear conflict. This is especially important given the growing prevalence of misinfo which adds to the risk. The report emphasizes that the need for more conversation between the key players including the US, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan. Without open conversation, the risk for an accident increases dramatically.
Furthermore, the report calls for a reassessment of nuclear deterrence strategies, particularly the reliance on tactical nuclear weapons and ambiguous doctrines. These approaches, while intended to deter aggression, can inadvertently increase the risk of escalation and miscalculation. The report advocates for a more transparent and predictable nuclear posture, with a focus on strategic stability and arms control. This would involve clear communication of red lines, verifiable arms control agreements, and a commitment to reducing the role of nuclear weapons in national security strategies.
Finally, the SIPRI report emphasizes the importance of addressing the underlying political and economic factors that contribute to nuclear proliferation and regional tensions. These include unresolved territorial disputes, competition for resources, and ideological differences. By addressing these root causes, policymakers can create a more stable and predictable international environment that reduces the incentives for countries to develop or acquire nuclear weapons. The report also highlights the role of international organizations and civil society in promoting disarmament and arms control. These actors can play a crucial role in monitoring compliance with arms control agreements, raising awareness about the dangers of nuclear weapons, and advocating for policies that promote peace and security.
The relationship between India and Pakistan, fraught with historical baggage and ongoing disputes, adds another layer of complexity to the global nuclear landscape. The two nations have fought multiple wars and continue to engage in border skirmishes, making them one of the most volatile regions in the world. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, creating a situation of mutually assured destruction (MAD). This deterrent effect has arguably prevented a full-scale war between the two nations, but it also creates a precarious balance where miscalculation or escalation could lead to catastrophic consequences. The SIPRI report underscores the need for both India and Pakistan to engage in constructive dialogue and confidence-building measures to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. This includes establishing clear communication channels, agreeing on protocols for crisis management, and promoting transparency in their nuclear doctrines and programs. The involvement of international mediators and organizations can also play a crucial role in facilitating dialogue and fostering trust between the two nations.
In addition to the immediate threat of nuclear conflict, the SIPRI report highlights the long-term consequences of nuclear proliferation. The production and testing of nuclear weapons can have devastating environmental and health effects, contaminating soil, water, and air with radioactive materials. The risk of nuclear accidents also poses a significant threat to human health and the environment. The report emphasizes the need for greater investment in nuclear safety and security, as well as remediation efforts to address the legacy of past nuclear activities. The international community has a responsibility to support these efforts and to ensure that nuclear weapons are never used again. The long term effects are not known, but studies have shown they can cause genetic mutations and an increase in cancers in regions surrounding the test sites.
Overall, the SIPRI report serves as a stark warning about the dangers of a world increasingly characterized by nuclear proliferation and escalating tensions. The report underscores the need for urgent action to de-escalate conflicts, promote dialogue, and strengthen arms control agreements. The international community must work together to create a more stable and secure world where nuclear weapons are no longer a threat to humanity. By addressing the underlying causes of conflict, promoting transparency and trust, and investing in nuclear safety and security, we can reduce the risk of nuclear war and build a more peaceful future. The challenges are daunting, but the stakes are too high to ignore. It is imperative that policymakers, diplomats, and civil society organizations work together to address the nuclear threat and to build a world free of nuclear weapons.
Source: India Holds Nuclear Edge Over Pakistan, Leaps Ahead In Missile Tech: Global Arms Report