 |
|
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating a significant increase in rainfall activity across Northwest India starting from June 25th. This forecast includes the likelihood of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall events. Furthermore, the IMD's update extends the prediction of heavy to very heavy rainfall to encompass many parts of central, east, and northeast India over the subsequent seven days. This widespread rainfall pattern is expected to have a positive impact on the agricultural sector, particularly concerning the kharif crops, which are heavily reliant on monsoon rains. The anticipated early monsoon and the widespread precipitation across the country are likely to expand the area under cultivation for these crops, boosting agricultural production and potentially mitigating concerns about food inflation. The IMD's detailed forecast also highlights specific regions expected to experience extremely heavy rainfall, defined as exceeding 20 cm in a 24-hour period. West Madhya Pradesh is projected to receive such extreme rainfall on June 23rd and 24th. Additionally, a wide range of regions including east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Konkan, Arunachal Pradesh, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, Odisha, Haryana, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad are forecasted to receive very heavy rainfall between June 23rd and 27th. This comprehensive forecast provides crucial information for farmers, policymakers, and disaster management agencies to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of the heavy rainfall. The IMD's statement also indicates favorable conditions for the Southwest monsoon to further advance over the remaining parts of the North Arabian Sea, some more parts of Rajasthan and Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi, and the remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh and Jammu within the next two days. This anticipated advancement of the monsoon suggests a continuation of the current wet weather pattern and further expansion of rainfall coverage across the region. In addition to the widespread rainfall forecast, the IMD specifically highlighted the likelihood of isolated heavy rainfall over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Gujarat state during June 23rd to 28th. Very heavy rainfall is particularly expected over Konkan and Gujarat on June 23rd and 24th. Light to moderate rainfall is also anticipated over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathawada from June 23rd to 29th. This detailed regional forecast allows for localized preparedness and response measures to address potential flooding and other adverse impacts of the heavy rainfall.
The early onset of the monsoon and the widespread rainfall have already resulted in an increase in the area under cultivation for kharif crops. According to data released by the agriculture ministry, the total sown area has reached 137.84 lakh hectares as of June 20th. This represents an increase of 12.97 lakh hectares compared to the same period last year, indicating a significant boost in agricultural activity. This increase in cultivated area is largely attributed to higher acreage in rice, pulses, and coarse cereals. Farmers have responded positively to the favorable monsoon conditions and the anticipation of above-normal rainfall, as predicted by the IMD. The area under paddy, which is the most important kharif crop, has seen a particularly significant increase. As of June 20th, the area under paddy cultivation was 13.22 lakh hectares, representing a substantial increase of over 58% compared to the corresponding period last year. The sowing of pulses and coarse cereals has also experienced sharp spikes, with increases of 42% and 22% respectively. These increases are directly linked to the good rains and the expectation of an above-normal monsoon. The kharif season, also known as the monsoon season, typically extends from the last week of May to September. Kharif crops play a crucial role in India's agricultural production, accounting for approximately 60% of the country's total crop production. These crops include paddy, maize, soybean, tur, and cotton, all of which are heavily dependent on monsoon rainfall. The success of the kharif season is therefore critical for ensuring food security and supporting the livelihoods of millions of farmers across the country.
According to the data, rice cultivation has witnessed a substantial rise, with 13.22 lakh hectares already covered by June 20th compared to 8.37 lakh hectares during the same period last year. This increase signifies the farmers' confidence in the monsoon and their willingness to invest in rice cultivation. Pulses are also experiencing healthy growth in sowing, as the area under cultivation has reached 9.44 lakh hectares, marking an increase of 42%. Within the pulses category, moong and urad have shown an increase in acreage, while arhar has declined slightly compared to last year. This indicates a shift in farmers' preferences towards certain pulse varieties based on market demand and regional suitability. However, the area under cultivation for oilseeds is slightly lower compared to the previous year. Oilseeds sowing has covered 5.38 lakh hectares, which is marginally lower than 5.49 lakh hectares last year. This slight decline could be attributed to various factors such as market prices, pest infestations, or alternative crop options. In contrast, the areas under cotton and sugarcane have increased, indicating favorable conditions for these crops as well. The overall increase in the kharif area clearly demonstrates that farmers are optimistic about the monsoon prospects. The increased area also dispels fears of a potential surge in food inflation, as the enhanced agricultural production is expected to stabilize prices and ensure adequate food supplies. The Union government recently concluded a massive outreach campaign called Viksit Krishi Sankalp Abhiyan, a nationwide initiative that ran from May 29th to June 12th across all states and Union territories. The campaign aimed to equip farmers with information, tools, and technology to enhance their productivity during the kharif sowing season. This government initiative played a crucial role in empowering farmers and facilitating the adoption of modern agricultural practices, contributing to the overall success of the kharif season.
The combination of favorable monsoon conditions, increased agricultural activity, and government support initiatives is expected to have a positive impact on the Indian economy. A successful kharif season will not only ensure food security but also boost rural incomes and create employment opportunities in the agricultural sector. The increased production of rice, pulses, and other kharif crops will also contribute to exports and generate foreign exchange earnings. However, it is important to note that the success of the kharif season is contingent upon the continued favorable monsoon conditions and the effective management of potential risks such as floods, droughts, and pest infestations. The IMD's accurate and timely weather forecasts play a crucial role in providing farmers and policymakers with the information they need to prepare for and mitigate these risks. Furthermore, effective irrigation management, pest control measures, and crop diversification strategies are essential for ensuring the sustainability and resilience of the agricultural sector. The government also needs to continue investing in agricultural research and development, infrastructure development, and farmer education to enhance the long-term productivity and competitiveness of the Indian agricultural sector. In conclusion, the IMD's forecast of heavy rainfall and the early onset of the monsoon have created favorable conditions for the kharif season. The increased area under cultivation, driven by the positive response from farmers, is expected to boost agricultural production and mitigate concerns about food inflation. However, continued vigilance and proactive measures are necessary to ensure the success of the kharif season and to address potential challenges. The government, farmers, and other stakeholders must work together to ensure the sustainability and resilience of the Indian agricultural sector and to achieve food security for the nation. The reliance on monsoon rains highlights the vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate variability, underscoring the importance of developing climate-resilient agricultural practices and investing in water conservation measures. The promotion of sustainable agriculture practices, such as organic farming, conservation tillage, and integrated pest management, can also contribute to enhancing the environmental sustainability of the agricultural sector. The success of the kharif season is not only important for the agricultural sector but also has significant implications for the overall economic growth and development of the country. A thriving agricultural sector can stimulate demand in other sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, transportation, and services, leading to a virtuous cycle of growth and prosperity. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize the development of the agricultural sector and to create an enabling environment for farmers to thrive. This includes providing access to credit, insurance, and market information, as well as promoting the adoption of modern agricultural technologies. By investing in the agricultural sector and empowering farmers, India can unlock its full agricultural potential and achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
The Viksit Krishi Sankalp Abhiyan, a countrywide initiative by the Union government, played a crucial role in preparing farmers for the kharif sowing season. This campaign aimed to equip farmers with the necessary information, tools, and technology to enhance their productivity and profitability. The campaign focused on disseminating knowledge about improved crop varieties, efficient irrigation techniques, integrated pest management practices, and access to government schemes and subsidies. By providing farmers with the latest information and technologies, the campaign helped to improve their decision-making and enhance their overall performance. The campaign also emphasized the importance of soil health management, promoting the use of organic fertilizers and bio-pesticides to improve soil fertility and reduce the reliance on chemical inputs. By promoting sustainable agricultural practices, the campaign aimed to ensure the long-term health and productivity of the agricultural sector. In addition to the Viksit Krishi Sankalp Abhiyan, the government has also implemented various other initiatives to support the agricultural sector, such as the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-Kisan), which provides income support to small and marginal farmers. These initiatives have played a crucial role in improving the livelihoods of farmers and enhancing their resilience to climate shocks. However, there is still a need to further strengthen these initiatives and to address the remaining challenges facing the agricultural sector, such as the lack of access to credit, inadequate infrastructure, and volatile market prices. The government also needs to focus on promoting value addition in the agricultural sector, by encouraging the establishment of food processing industries and promoting the export of processed agricultural products. By increasing the value of agricultural products, the government can enhance the incomes of farmers and create new employment opportunities in the rural areas. In addition to the government's efforts, the private sector also has a crucial role to play in the development of the agricultural sector. Private companies can invest in agricultural research and development, provide access to modern agricultural technologies, and promote the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. The collaboration between the government and the private sector is essential for creating a vibrant and sustainable agricultural sector in India. By working together, the government and the private sector can unlock the full potential of the agricultural sector and contribute to the overall economic growth and development of the country. The success of the kharif season is a testament to the resilience and hard work of Indian farmers, as well as the effectiveness of the government's policies and initiatives. By continuing to invest in the agricultural sector and empowering farmers, India can achieve its goal of becoming a global leader in agriculture and ensuring food security for all its citizens.
Source: Heavy rainfall likely over Northwest India from Wednesday, says IMD