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The United States Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)'s 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment has brought into sharp focus the escalating tensions and military buildups in South Asia, particularly concerning Pakistan's strategic posture towards India. The report explicitly states that Pakistan continues to perceive India as an existential threat, a perception that drives its ongoing efforts to modernize its military capabilities, with a significant emphasis on its nuclear arsenal. This assessment underscores the deep-seated security dilemma that has characterized the relationship between the two nations for decades, a dilemma fueled by historical conflicts, territorial disputes, and diverging geopolitical interests. Pakistan's focus on modernizing its nuclear capabilities, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, is directly attributed to its perceived need to offset India's conventional military superiority. This pursuit of a credible nuclear deterrent is seen by Islamabad as essential for maintaining strategic stability in the region and preventing potential aggression from its larger neighbor. The DIA report also highlights the crucial role that China plays in Pakistan's military modernization efforts, particularly in providing materials and technologies for its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. This strategic partnership between Pakistan and China, often described as an 'all-weather friendship,' has significant implications for the regional balance of power and raises concerns about the proliferation of nuclear technology. The report notes that materials and technologies supporting Pakistan's WMD programs are believed to transit through various locations, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the UAE, highlighting the complex and global nature of nuclear proliferation networks. The DIA assessment also sheds light on Pakistan's other pressing security concerns, including managing cross-border tensions, countering threats from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch nationalist militants, and conducting counterterrorism operations. These internal and external security challenges underscore the multifaceted nature of Pakistan's strategic environment and the complex calculus that shapes its defense policies. Furthermore, the report confirms that Pakistan has not adopted a “No First Use” nuclear doctrine, which means it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict if it believes its national security is threatened. This stance, coupled with its focus on tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons, raises concerns about the potential for nuclear escalation in the event of a crisis with India. The DIA's assessment is particularly alarming in light of the estimated increase in Pakistan's nuclear warhead stockpile. As of 2024, Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads, a significant increase from the 60–80 warheads projected by the DIA in 1999. This rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal further intensifies the security dilemma in South Asia and underscores the urgent need for renewed efforts to promote regional stability and prevent nuclear proliferation.
The strategic dynamics between India, Pakistan, and China are intricately linked, forming a complex web of alliances and rivalries that shape the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. India, while acknowledging the threat posed by Pakistan, primarily views China as its principal strategic adversary. This perspective is driven by China's growing economic and military power, its assertive foreign policy, and its expanding presence in the Indian Ocean region. India's strategic focus on China is reflected in its ongoing efforts to modernize its military capabilities, strengthen its defense partnerships with other nations, and enhance its maritime security. The rivalry between India and China extends beyond military considerations, encompassing economic competition, diplomatic maneuvering, and ideological differences. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure development project that aims to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe, has raised concerns in India about China's growing influence in the region and its potential to undermine India's strategic interests. India has also been critical of China's human rights record, particularly its treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang and its suppression of dissent in Hong Kong. The strategic partnership between Pakistan and China serves as a counterbalance to India's growing power and influence. China provides Pakistan with economic assistance, military hardware, and diplomatic support, helping to bolster its strategic position in the region. However, this partnership also raises concerns about the potential for China to use Pakistan as a proxy to exert pressure on India. The complex interplay of these strategic dynamics underscores the need for a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the security challenges in South Asia. A simplistic focus on bilateral relations between India and Pakistan risks overlooking the broader regional context and the influence of external actors, such as China. Effective strategies for promoting regional stability must address the underlying drivers of conflict, including historical grievances, territorial disputes, and diverging geopolitical interests. Dialogue, diplomacy, and confidence-building measures are essential for managing tensions and preventing escalation.
The DIA report's assessment of Pakistan's nuclear posture raises several critical questions about the future of nuclear deterrence in South Asia. Pakistan's decision not to adopt a “No First Use” nuclear doctrine reflects its perception of vulnerability vis-Ã -vis India's conventional military superiority. However, this stance also increases the risk of nuclear escalation in the event of a crisis, particularly if Pakistan believes it is facing imminent defeat on the battlefield. The development and deployment of tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons further complicate the situation. These weapons, designed for use on the battlefield, are more vulnerable to theft or unauthorized use, and their deployment could lower the threshold for nuclear use in a conflict. The risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation is particularly high in a crisis situation, where decision-making is often rapid and information is incomplete. The international community has repeatedly called on Pakistan to adopt a “No First Use” nuclear doctrine and to refrain from developing and deploying tactical nuclear weapons. However, Pakistan has consistently rejected these calls, arguing that its nuclear deterrent is essential for maintaining strategic stability in the region. The challenges of managing nuclear risks in South Asia are further compounded by the lack of transparency and communication between India and Pakistan. The two countries have engaged in a series of confidence-building measures over the years, but these measures have often been insufficient to prevent crises from escalating. Enhanced dialogue, transparency, and communication are essential for building trust and reducing the risk of miscalculation. The role of the international community in promoting nuclear safety and security in South Asia is also crucial. The United States, in particular, has a long-standing interest in preventing nuclear proliferation and managing nuclear risks in the region. Washington can play a constructive role by encouraging dialogue between India and Pakistan, providing technical assistance for nuclear security, and promoting international norms against nuclear proliferation. The long-term stability of South Asia depends on addressing the underlying drivers of conflict, promoting regional cooperation, and managing nuclear risks effectively. Failure to do so could have catastrophic consequences for the region and the world.
The assessment provided by the DIA serves as a stark reminder of the enduring challenges to peace and security in South Asia. The complex interplay of strategic rivalries, nuclear deterrence, and internal security threats demands a multifaceted approach that encompasses diplomatic engagement, confidence-building measures, and arms control initiatives. Addressing the underlying causes of conflict, promoting regional cooperation, and managing nuclear risks effectively are essential for ensuring the long-term stability and prosperity of the region. The international community, particularly the United States, has a crucial role to play in facilitating dialogue, providing technical assistance, and upholding international norms against nuclear proliferation. A concerted effort by all stakeholders is necessary to avert a catastrophic conflict and build a more secure and stable future for South Asia. The challenges are immense, but the stakes are even higher. The future of South Asia depends on the ability of its leaders to rise above narrow national interests and work together to build a region where peace, prosperity, and security are shared by all. The alternative is a grim prospect of continued conflict, nuclear proliferation, and regional instability, with potentially devastating consequences for the world. It is imperative that the international community remains engaged and committed to promoting a peaceful and prosperous future for South Asia. This requires a long-term perspective, a willingness to address the root causes of conflict, and a commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation. The path forward will not be easy, but the potential rewards are well worth the effort. A stable and prosperous South Asia would not only benefit the region itself but also contribute to global peace and security. The challenges are complex and multifaceted, but with sustained effort and a commitment to shared goals, a brighter future for South Asia is within reach. The DIA report serves as a call to action, reminding us of the urgent need to address the enduring challenges to peace and security in the region and to work together to build a more stable and prosperous future for all. The international community must heed this call and redouble its efforts to promote dialogue, cooperation, and stability in South Asia. The stakes are too high to ignore, and the consequences of inaction could be catastrophic. It is time for bold leadership, innovative solutions, and a renewed commitment to building a more peaceful and secure world.
The report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency underscores the critical need for a reassessment of security strategies in South Asia, emphasizing the intricate dynamics between Pakistan, India, and China. Pakistan's persistent view of India as an 'existential threat' and its subsequent modernization of nuclear capabilities, fueled by China's support, present a complex challenge to regional stability. India's primary focus on China as its strategic adversary further complicates the equation, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical interests and security concerns. The development of battlefield nuclear weapons by Pakistan, intended to counter India's conventional military strength, raises serious concerns about nuclear escalation and the potential for miscalculation. The absence of a 'No First Use' nuclear doctrine on Pakistan's part amplifies these risks, underscoring the urgency for enhanced dialogue and confidence-building measures between the two nations. China's role as a key supplier of materials and technologies for Pakistan's weapons of mass destruction programs necessitates a global effort to prevent nuclear proliferation and ensure responsible behavior. The DIA report also sheds light on Pakistan's internal security challenges, including cross-border tensions, counterterrorism operations, and the management of threats from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch nationalist militants. These multifaceted challenges require a comprehensive approach that addresses both external and internal security concerns. The international community, particularly the United States, has a vital role to play in fostering dialogue, providing technical assistance, and upholding international norms against nuclear proliferation. Enhanced transparency, communication, and confidence-building measures are essential for building trust and reducing the risk of miscalculation. A concerted effort by all stakeholders is necessary to avert a catastrophic conflict and build a more secure and stable future for South Asia. The challenges are immense, but the stakes are even higher. The future of South Asia depends on the ability of its leaders to rise above narrow national interests and work together to build a region where peace, prosperity, and security are shared by all. The report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency calls for a renewed commitment to addressing the enduring challenges to peace and security in South Asia and to work together to build a more stable and prosperous future for all.
Source: Pakistan modernising nuclear arsenal; views India as 'existential threat', says US intelligence