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The political landscape of Maharashtra remains in flux following the Assembly elections, with both the ruling Mahayuti coalition and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) grappling with internal dissent and strategic maneuvering. The upcoming local body elections, mandated by a recent Supreme Court order, have injected a new dynamic into the state's political arena. The Supreme Court's directive necessitates the Maharashtra State Election Commission (SEC) to announce the long-delayed elections to local bodies within a four-week timeframe and endeavor to conclude the entire process within four months, with the possibility of seeking additional time in justifiable circumstances. A pivotal aspect of the Supreme Court's order pertains to the reservation of seats for Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in these local body polls. The court stipulated that the OBC reservation, a contentious issue that contributed to the election delays, would be implemented as it existed prior to a 2022 report. This earlier framework recommended reserving 27% of the seats in local body polls for OBCs, pending the finalization of accurate OBC data through a comprehensive census. This ruling paves the way for the Mahayuti government, led by the BJP, to conduct elections for various civic bodies, including significant municipal corporations such as the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), nagar parishads (municipal councils), and panchayats (village councils), with the stipulated 27% quota for OBCs. This development, coupled with the central government's recent announcement regarding a nationwide caste census, is anticipated to significantly bolster the BJP's prospects in the upcoming local elections. Strategically, this scenario also allows the BJP to consolidate its position within the state, particularly in relation to its coalition partner, the Shiv Sena, which holds substantial stakes in the BMC, Mumbai's financially significant civic body. The upcoming elections encompass a considerable number of local bodies, including 29 municipal corporations (including newly formed Jalna and Ichchalkaranji), 257 nagar parishads, 26 zilla parishads (district councils), and 289 panchayat samitis (block councils). The tenures of the majority of these local bodies expired in 2022-2023, leading to the state government appointing administrators to oversee their operations in the interim. The initial deferral of the elections in 2021 stemmed from a Supreme Court directive imposing a status quo on OBC reservations in local bodies, which had been previously mandated by the then-ruling Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government through an ordinance. The Supreme Court had instructed the state government to adhere to the “triple test” requirement to justify the quota. This involved establishing a dedicated commission tasked with determining the socio-economic backwardness of OBCs. The MVA government initiated this process, and the subsequent Mahayuti government (2022-2024) expedited it. However, despite these efforts, the Mahayuti government hesitated in holding the elections last year, citing concerns about proceeding without resolving the OBC quota issue and finalizing the delimitation of electoral wards. This strategic delay was widely perceived as a calculated move by the BJP to prioritize its resources and focus on the 2024 Lok Sabha (parliamentary) and Assembly (state legislative) elections. The BJP's improved performance in the state elections has now seemingly prepared the ground for the party to fully engage in the local polls.
Examining the historical context of the previous local elections provides valuable insights into the current political dynamics. In the last elections held for the state's 27 municipal corporations (conducted at various intervals between 2015 and 2018), the then-united Shiv Sena secured victories in 14 corporations, including its stronghold of the BMC. The Congress party and its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), collectively won 7 corporations, while the BJP claimed victory in 6. The significant split within the Shiv Sena in 2022, resulting in the formation of factions within both the Mahayuti and MVA coalitions, introduces considerable uncertainty into predicting the outcome of the upcoming elections. However, the BJP perceives an opportunity to gain ground in the BMC, leveraging the division within the Shiv Sena to its advantage. In the 2017 BMC elections, the BJP achieved a close second-place finish, trailing the Shiv Sena by a narrow margin of only two wards, with the Shiv Sena securing a total of 84 wards. Following the Supreme Court's recent announcement, Chief Minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared that the Mahayuti coalition would contest the upcoming elections jointly, with the exception of a few select locations. However, maintaining this unified front may prove challenging, given the instances of one-upmanship that have plagued the Mahayuti coalition and the BJP's assertive efforts to expand its political base. Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule has consistently emphasized the party's ambition to dominate all levels of governance, from “Parliament to panchayat,” signaling a desire for broader political dominance. Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, whose perceived “alienation” within the Mahayuti coalition has become increasingly apparent, is expected to vigorously defend his party's territory, including key strongholds such as Thane, Navi Mumbai, and Nashik. Similarly, NCP leader Ajit Pawar aims to strengthen his party's influence in Western Maharashtra, where the NCP(SP) faction and its MVA ally, the Congress party, maintain a strong presence.
In contrast to the Mahayuti coalition, the MVA parties, still reeling from their losses in the Assembly elections, remained conspicuously silent on Tuesday regarding the prospect of contesting the local elections jointly. For Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, these elections represent a crucial juncture, with the very identity of the party and the Thackeray family inextricably linked to Mumbai. Kishori Pednekar, a former Mumbai mayor and prominent party leader, affirmed that her party is fully prepared for the upcoming polls. Maharashtra Congress president Harshwardhan Sapkal welcomed the court ruling, urging the state government to refrain from seeking any “escape route” to further delay the local elections. The confluence of these factors paints a complex and dynamic picture of Maharashtra's political landscape. The Supreme Court's directive mandating the local body elections, coupled with the OBC reservation and the ongoing caste census, has created a fertile ground for political maneuvering and strategic realignments. The BJP, emboldened by its recent electoral gains and the division within the Shiv Sena, appears poised to capitalize on these opportunities. However, the internal dynamics within both the Mahayuti and MVA coalitions, along with the ambitions of individual leaders, add layers of uncertainty to the outcome. The upcoming local elections will serve as a significant test of the political strength and resilience of the various parties involved, potentially reshaping the power dynamics within the state. The results will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for the future political trajectory of Maharashtra, influencing both state and national politics. The focus will be on whether the BJP can translate its perceived advantage into tangible gains, whether the Shiv Sena can weather the storm of internal divisions, and whether the MVA can effectively regroup and mount a credible challenge. These elections are more than just a local affair; they are a critical battleground in the ongoing struggle for political supremacy in Maharashtra.
Source: Caste census, now OBC quota: BJP starts with an advantage in much-delayed Maharashtra local polls