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The recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India marks a significant shift in its approach to managing water resources shared with Pakistan. This decision, triggered by the Pahalgam attack, allows India to reconsider the operational constraints imposed by the treaty, particularly concerning the management of hydroelectric power plants in Jammu & Kashmir. The treaty, designed to ensure equitable distribution of water from the Indus River system, has historically limited India's ability to conduct crucial desilting operations, known as 'flushing,' at its hydel facilities. These restrictions, while intended to maintain a consistent water flow into Pakistan, have inadvertently led to a substantial reduction in power generation capacity and the overall lifespan of key infrastructure projects. The Salal hydel plant, situated on the Chenab River in the Reasi district, serves as a prime example. As the first and oldest project established under the IWT, Salal has experienced a significant decline in operational efficiency due to heavy sedimentation. The stringent limitations on flushing operations, mandated by the treaty, have prevented effective removal of silt, causing the reservoir's capacity to plummet from an initial 284 million cubic meters (MCM) to a mere 12-13 MCM. An NHPC assessment in 2019 highlighted that approximately 30 million cubic meters of sediment enter the Salal reservoir annually, overwhelming its capacity and hindering power generation. The suspension of the IWT provides India with the opportunity to address this critical issue by expediting the flushing process at Salal and other affected hydel plants. This includes the Baglihar project, also located on the Chenab River, which has recently experienced increased silt deposition due to heavy rainfall. By undertaking these desilting operations, India aims to restore the operational efficiency of its hydel plants, boost power generation, and extend the lifespan of vital water infrastructure. This strategic move aligns with India's broader objective of optimizing the utilization of its allocated share of water from the western rivers of the Indus system, comprising the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. While the immediate impact on water flow into Pakistan remains uncertain, the decision has undoubtedly raised concerns in the neighboring country, given its significant dependence on these rivers for agricultural irrigation and water supply. The potential for India to withhold hydrological data from Pakistan further exacerbates these concerns. This data, crucial for water resource management and flood forecasting, has traditionally been shared between the two countries under the IWT framework. The withholding of this information could potentially compromise Pakistan's ability to effectively manage its water resources and mitigate flood risks. The Indian government's decision to suspend the IWT reflects a growing frustration with the perceived limitations imposed by the treaty, particularly in light of evolving security concerns and the need to optimize water resource management. By asserting greater control over its share of the Indus River system, India seeks to enhance its energy security, improve water infrastructure resilience, and address the growing demands of its population. However, this decision also carries significant implications for regional stability and water relations between India and Pakistan. The long-term consequences of the IWT suspension will depend on the manner in which India exercises its newfound flexibility and the extent to which it engages in constructive dialogue with Pakistan to address concerns and prevent potential water disputes.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, has been a cornerstone of water management and cooperation between India and Pakistan for over six decades. The treaty allocated the waters of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – to India, while the waters of the three western rivers – the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – were allocated to Pakistan. While India was permitted to use the western rivers for limited irrigation, power generation, and domestic purposes, the treaty imposed significant restrictions on activities that could affect the flow of water into Pakistan. These restrictions included limitations on the construction of storage reservoirs, the modification of river channels, and the timing and extent of desilting operations. The treaty also established a framework for resolving disputes related to water sharing, including a Permanent Indus Commission comprising representatives from both countries. This commission has played a crucial role in addressing technical issues and preventing potential conflicts over water resources. Despite its successes, the IWT has faced challenges over the years, particularly in the context of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. India has often expressed concerns about the impact of terrorism emanating from Pakistan on its ability to comply with the treaty's provisions. The suspension of the IWT, therefore, can be viewed as a manifestation of these broader security concerns and a desire to recalibrate the water management relationship with Pakistan. The decision also reflects a growing recognition of the need to adapt the treaty to changing circumstances, including the impacts of climate change and increasing water demands. As water scarcity becomes an increasingly pressing issue in both India and Pakistan, the need for more flexible and collaborative approaches to water management is becoming increasingly apparent. The suspension of the IWT presents an opportunity for both countries to engage in a comprehensive review of the treaty's provisions and to explore potential avenues for enhancing cooperation and ensuring equitable water sharing. This could involve the establishment of new mechanisms for monitoring water flows, sharing hydrological data, and resolving disputes. It could also involve the development of joint projects for water storage, irrigation, and hydropower generation. However, any efforts to renegotiate or amend the IWT will need to be approached with caution, given the sensitivities surrounding water resources and the potential for triggering conflict. A successful outcome will require a commitment to mutual respect, transparency, and a willingness to compromise. The long-term stability of the Indus River system and the well-being of the populations that depend on it will ultimately depend on the ability of India and Pakistan to find common ground and to forge a sustainable water management relationship.
The potential consequences of India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty are multifaceted and far-reaching, impacting not only the immediate water availability in Pakistan but also the broader geopolitical landscape of the region. Pakistan, heavily reliant on the Indus River system for its agricultural lifeline, faces the immediate threat of reduced water flow, potentially leading to crop failures, food insecurity, and economic instability. The agricultural sector, a significant contributor to Pakistan's GDP and employment, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in water supply. Reduced water availability could also exacerbate existing water scarcity issues in urban areas, leading to social unrest and public health concerns. Beyond the immediate economic and social impacts, the suspension of the IWT carries significant geopolitical implications. It could be perceived as an act of aggression by Pakistan, potentially escalating tensions between the two countries and undermining regional stability. The withholding of hydrological data, traditionally shared under the IWT framework, could further erode trust and cooperation, hindering efforts to address shared challenges such as flood management and climate change adaptation. The international community has expressed concern over the potential ramifications of the IWT suspension, urging India and Pakistan to engage in dialogue and to uphold their commitments under the treaty. The World Bank, a guarantor of the IWT, has offered its assistance in facilitating discussions between the two countries. However, the success of these efforts will depend on the willingness of both India and Pakistan to prioritize diplomacy and to address their concerns through peaceful means. In the long term, the suspension of the IWT could trigger a reassessment of transboundary water management agreements around the world. It could embolden other countries to unilaterally abrogate or renegotiate treaties that they perceive as being unfavorable to their interests. This could lead to a proliferation of water disputes and undermine the international legal framework for managing shared water resources. To mitigate these risks, it is essential that India and Pakistan engage in constructive dialogue and explore alternative mechanisms for ensuring equitable water sharing. This could involve the establishment of a joint commission to monitor water flows, to share hydrological data, and to resolve disputes. It could also involve the development of joint projects for water storage, irrigation, and hydropower generation. The ultimate goal should be to create a more resilient and sustainable water management system that benefits both countries and promotes regional stability.
Source: Key Jammu & Kashmir reservoirs' flushing to begin soon as India suspends Indus Waters Treaty