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The uneasy ceasefire between India and Pakistan, following a period of intense cross-border conflict, hangs precariously, raising concerns about the inevitability of a return to hostilities. While both nations have claimed victory in the wake of the recent skirmishes involving drones and missile strikes, the most technologically advanced conflict witnessed by either side, analysts and diplomats express apprehension that the current lull may be a mere pause before a renewed escalation. The situation is further complicated by domestic political pressures, shifting international perceptions, and the involvement of external actors, creating a volatile environment ripe for renewed conflict.
India's perspective, according to some experts, is that the nation has not emerged from the conflict with the decisive victory it had anticipated. This perceived lack of a clear triumph leaves little room for de-escalation and hinders the prospect of meaningful political engagement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's insistence that the military offensive against Pakistani terror groups, codenamed Operation Sindhoor, remains ongoing, with the ceasefire merely a temporary pause, reinforces this sentiment. The government's actions, particularly its perceived lack of transparency and tightly controlled information flow regarding Operation Sindhoor, have been criticized for contributing to a distorted narrative and fueling public appetite for war. The deep-rooted instinct of the Modi government to tightly control the flow of information meant that accounts of the operation were limited to a few brief, highly choreographed press conferences led by civil servants. This stands in stark contrast to the Pakistani government’s approach, where ministers were readily available to brief the world on their version of events. The information gap created by the Indian government fueled an unprecedented amount of misinformation and disinformation, further exacerbating the situation and inflaming public sentiment. The resulting anger and sense of betrayal felt by many in India when a ceasefire was abruptly announced by then-US President Donald Trump highlights the potent and potentially destabilizing impact of these dynamics. It must be emphasized, however, that attributing India's challenges solely to its government's communication strategy overlooks other significant factors, such as the long-standing animosity between the two nations, the complexity of the Kashmir issue, and the involvement of various non-state actors.
Conversely, Pakistan's army has experienced a resurgence in public esteem, demonstrating that confrontations with India tend to bolster the institution's reputation and influence. This internal dynamic within Pakistan further complicates the prospects for de-escalation, as the military's strengthened position could incentivize a more aggressive stance towards India. From Pakistan's perspective, the alleged downing of five Indian military jets, despite India's official silence and efforts to suppress media coverage of the claims, served as a propaganda victory, reinforcing their narrative and boosting national morale. This further illustrates the challenges inherent in achieving a common understanding of events and building trust between the two nations. Any lasting rapprochement is further complicated by the hyper-nationalist rhetoric emanating from both sides, leaving limited space for constructive dialogue and compromise. Chietigj Bajpaee of Chatham House aptly observed that the continuing state of alert declared by India and the lack of concrete steps towards de-escalation indicate a limited potential for any significant improvement in relations.
Beyond immediate tactical gains or losses, the conflict has also reignited the 'India-Pakistan hyphenation,' a phenomenon New Delhi had hoped to transcend as India ascended as a global economic and geopolitical force. The international community's tendency to view the two countries as a single, quarreling entity has resurfaced, undermining India's efforts to distinguish itself as a distinct and influential player on the world stage. Pratap Bhanu Mehta's analysis that the absence of a decisive victory and a clear political resolution reinforces the 'India-Pakistan hyphenation' underscores the broader strategic implications of the conflict. The perceived back foot that India found itself on in the battle over narrative, coupled with Trump's intervention, further exacerbated the situation.
Trump's boastful claims of brokering the ceasefire have been met with considerable frustration in New Delhi, particularly his assertion that trade coercion played a role in bringing both sides to the negotiating table. The Indian government's open repudiation of Trump's statements reflects the depth of its dissatisfaction with the US president's handling of the situation. The re-internationalization of the Kashmir issue, marked by Trump's offer to mediate between the two countries, represents another strategic setback for India, which has consistently maintained that the dispute is a purely internal matter. Pakistan's enthusiastic acceptance of Trump's offer stands in stark contrast to India's stony silence, highlighting the divergent positions on external involvement in the conflict. Brahma Chellaney's criticism of Trump for 'playing right into the hands of Pakistan' underscores the potential for external actors to inadvertently exacerbate tensions and undermine India's strategic interests.
The suspension of the Indus River treaty, which guarantees Pakistan a vital supply of river water from India, adds another layer of complexity to the already strained relationship. While optimistic voices in Islamabad speak of post-ceasefire talks in neutral venues, New Delhi has remained reticent, acknowledging the absence of compelling reasons for negotiation and the lack of trust necessary for productive dialogue. Mehta's observation that 'this war does not compel negotiations' succinctly captures the underlying dynamic. On a deeper level, there appears to be little incentive for either side to de-escalate. Anti-Pakistan sentiment has proven to be a potent political tool in India, bolstering support for Modi's government and fueling its Hindu nationalist agenda. Similarly, in Pakistan, the ever-present threat of India has long been used to justify the military's dominant role in the country's affairs. This cyclical pattern of conflict and political opportunism makes it exceedingly difficult to break the cycle of hostility and achieve lasting peace.
Bajpaee's pessimistic outlook on the prospects for political dialogue reflects a growing consensus that the two countries are 'essentially talking past each other.' The likelihood of a credible peace process appears remote, leading many to conclude that the resumption of military hostilities is not a question of 'if,' but 'when.' This grim assessment underscores the urgent need for both nations to adopt a more constructive and forward-looking approach to conflict resolution, prioritizing diplomacy and dialogue over military posturing and inflammatory rhetoric. Ultimately, the future of India-Pakistan relations hinges on the willingness of both sides to overcome entrenched animosities, address the root causes of the conflict, and build a foundation of mutual trust and respect. Without such a fundamental shift in mindset, the region will remain trapped in a cycle of violence and instability, with potentially devastating consequences for both countries and the wider world.
Source: Uneasy India-Pakistan ceasefire holds but is a return to war inevitable?