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The Stimson Center's analysis dissects the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025, triggered by a terrorist attack and escalating into a near-war scenario involving cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and drone warfare. The report meticulously reconstructs the chronology of events, acknowledging the challenges posed by misinformation and limited data availability. It highlights key military firsts, including India's use of cruise missiles like BrahMos and SCALP-EG and Pakistan's deployment of conventionally armed Fatah-I and Fatah-II missiles. The analysis acknowledges that both sides declared victory, but with conflicting and often unsubstantiated narratives. It identifies that the conflict underscores the continued crisis-prone nature of the India-Pakistan relationship, despite the constraints imposed by their nuclear arsenals. The article finds that while both sides showed some ability to manage escalation, miscalculations and surprises occurred. It notes that the United States played a crucial role in de-escalation, acting as a key crisis communicator. The conflict also highlighted the significance of technological advancements in weaponry, with both sides likely to pursue further defense acquisitions and doctrinal innovations in response to perceived setbacks. The report emphasizes the global significance of the conflict as one of the few instances of direct hostilities between nuclear states and as a potential model for 21st-century warfare. The author stresses the importance of understanding the complexities of this crisis to prepare for future India-Pakistan tensions. The analysis details the events that led up to the May 7th strikes, starting with the terrorist attack on April 22nd that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir. India’s response on May 7th involved strikes on nine sites across Pakistan, with the aim of targeting terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan retaliated with counterair operations, claiming to have shot down several Indian aircraft. The article assesses that there is evidence substantiating at least some of these claims. The analysis examines the claims from both sides, India's initial strategic signaling, and Pakistan's apparent counterair success, detailing various perspectives and reports. The analysis then moves into the escalation in Kashmir and the drone duels that followed the initial strikes, noting the use of Turkish-origin Asisguard Songar drones and the Indian counterattacks, including the use of Israeli-origin Harpy and Harop drones. The article emphasizes that Pakistan's denial of a drone attack on India contributed to the perception of India's counterattack as further aggression. The escalating tensions prompted concerns from the United States, leading to diplomatic interventions and worries about potential nuclear escalation. The night of May 9-10 was the climax of the crisis, characterized by a dramatic escalation of violence involving standoff strikes on military installations. India targeted multiple airbases in Pakistan, while Pakistan launched drone and missile attacks on India. While the analysis notes that the overall damage inflicted by Pakistan appeared minimal, the Indian strikes created damage that was difficult for Pakistan to conceal. The role of the S-400 system is discussed, analyzing claims of its usage and Pakistan's counterclaims of destroying it. The article closes by looking at the denouement, emphasizing the role of crisis diplomacy and a ceasefire brokered with the help of the United States. It recognizes the importance of understanding the nuances of this conflict to avoid escalation in future crises. The detailed narrative focuses on strategic choices, weapon system performance, and geopolitical implications, offering insights into how nuclear powers manage conflict in the 21st century.
The core of the article lies in its detailed reconstruction of the four days of conflict. It meticulously breaks down the events of each day, starting with India's initial air strikes on May 7th, focusing on alleged terrorist infrastructure, to the escalating exchanges of fire across the Line of Control in Kashmir. The analysis identifies the specific weapon systems used by both sides, highlighting India's deployment of BrahMos and SCALP-EG cruise missiles against targets deep inside Pakistan, and Pakistan's use of Fatah-I and Fatah-II short-range ballistic missiles, marking the first time such weapons were used in a conflict between the two nations. The article also thoroughly analyzes the drone warfare aspect, documenting the exchange of drone attacks and counter-attacks, assessing the effectiveness of Indian air defenses against Pakistani drone incursions and vice versa. It emphasizes the conflicting claims from both sides regarding damage inflicted, particularly in relation to the May 9-10th strikes, providing a balanced view by cross-referencing information from various sources, including official statements, media reports, and satellite imagery. The report also thoroughly analyzes the political signals embedded in military actions, such as India targeting cities in the heart of Pakistani Punjab to send a message about the end of safe havens for terrorists. It also analyzes the apparent restraint exercised by both sides in avoiding targets that could be construed as deliberately provocative, such as nuclear storage facilities. The role of external actors, specifically the United States, is also a central element of the essay. It describes the diplomatic efforts undertaken by the United States to de-escalate the crisis, including phone calls between US officials and their counterparts in India and Pakistan, and the eventual brokering of a ceasefire agreement. It also analyzes the competing signals communicated by India and the US after the ceasefire was announced, especially surrounding potential concessions. The article sheds light on the psychological and strategic calculations of each side, and the complex interplay of military action, diplomatic signaling, and external influence that determined the course of the conflict.
The article further explores the potential implications of the conflict for the future of warfare and international relations. It suggests that the 2025 crisis, alongside the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes, offers a preview of how future conflicts between technologically advanced nations might unfold. It also notes that the crisis is the first example of a conflict involving a military (Pakistan) employing modern Chinese weapons, such as the HQ-9 air defense system and the PL-15 air-to-air missile. The performance of these weapons on the battlefield has significant implications for other countries considering purchasing Chinese military equipment, as well as those potentially facing China in a future confrontation. The analysis considers the role of misinformation and disinformation in shaping the narrative surrounding the crisis. It highlights the conflicting claims made by both sides, acknowledging the inherent challenges in verifying information during wartime. It emphasizes the importance of critical analysis and careful reconstruction of events to arrive at a more accurate understanding of the conflict. Finally, the article emphasizes the continued volatility of the India-Pakistan relationship and the need for continued efforts to manage tensions and prevent future escalation. It suggests that both sides will likely learn lessons from the 2025 crisis, leading to changes in military doctrine and procurement decisions. It also underscores the importance of international diplomacy in preventing future conflicts between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The comprehensive account of the Four Day Conflict from the Stimson Center offers valuable lessons on the complexities of crisis management in a nuclear environment. By detailing the military actions, diplomatic interventions, and political calculations of the key actors involved, the report provides important insights for policymakers, scholars, and anyone concerned with the future of South Asia. The careful analysis of the Stimson Center is essential to understanding how such crises might be averted or better managed in the future.
Source: Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025 • Stimson Center