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The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is increasingly defined by water security, with the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) emerging as a flashpoint between India and Pakistan. The article highlights how India's actions concerning the IWT, specifically its suspension following the Pahalgam terror attack, have spurred Pakistan to expedite the construction of the Mohmand Dam on the Swat River with China's assistance. This dam, while not directly governed by the IWT, is crucial for Pakistan's water security strategy. Satellite imagery confirms a significant acceleration in the dam's construction during late 2024 and early 2025, showcasing the urgency with which Pakistan is pursuing this project. The dam's location on the Swat River, a tributary of the Kabul River, adds another layer of complexity as it involves Afghanistan, another country reliant on these transboundary water resources. India's engagement with Afghanistan on water projects, particularly the Shahtoot Dam, further intensifies Pakistan's concerns, leading to fears of reduced water flow from the Kabul River. The interplay of these factors underscores a growing competition for water resources in the region, with implications for political stability and regional cooperation. The article’s focus on satellite imagery verification adds credibility, offering tangible evidence to support claims of accelerated construction, rather than relying solely on political statements or anecdotal reports. It illustrates the increasing role of remote sensing technology in monitoring and verifying activities related to international agreements and resource management. The fact that the imagery comes from the European Space Agency also points to the global interest in this regional issue. Furthermore, the mention of India’s $2 billion investment in Afghanistan's development since 2001, including the Shahtoot Dam project, provides a broader context of India’s strategic interests in the region, extending beyond mere water management to encompass political and economic influence. Pakistan's anxieties, as reported by Dawn, regarding a potential 16-17% reduction in the Kabul River’s flow after the completion of the Shahtoot Dam highlight the real and perceived threats to its water supply, driving its actions related to the Mohmand Dam. The situation is further complicated by the internal political dynamics within each country, with the need for governments to demonstrate strength and protect national interests in the face of external pressures.
The significance of the Mohmand Dam extends beyond its immediate contribution to Pakistan's water storage capacity. It represents a strategic response to perceived threats to its water security, primarily stemming from India's actions related to the IWT and its engagement with Afghanistan on water projects. The dam's expedited construction, facilitated by China, underscores the strong strategic alliance between the two countries and China's willingness to support Pakistan's developmental goals, particularly in areas critical to national security. The technological aspects of dam construction, highlighted by the mention of rock-fill embankments, new support structures, and the buildup of cement-like material, indicate a complex engineering undertaking with significant resource requirements. The dam's location on the Swat River, while not directly under the purview of the IWT, indirectly impacts the broader Indus basin water dynamics, as the Kabul River eventually contributes to the Indus. This interconnectedness of river systems necessitates a comprehensive and cooperative approach to water resource management, which is currently lacking in the region. The construction of the Shahtoot Dam by India in Afghanistan introduces another layer of complexity, as it potentially alters the flow of the Kabul River, affecting both Afghanistan's downstream users and Pakistan's water availability. The article highlights the potential for the Shahtoot Dam to provide potable water for 2 million Kabul residents and irrigate 4,000 hectares of land, showcasing the developmental benefits of such projects. However, Pakistan's concerns about reduced water flow underscore the potential for transboundary water projects to create tensions and disputes between riparian states. The role of international actors, such as the European Space Agency, in monitoring these projects highlights the global interest in ensuring that water resource management is conducted sustainably and equitably. The article also implicitly raises the question of whether existing international frameworks, such as the IWT, are adequate to address the evolving challenges of transboundary water management in the face of climate change, increasing populations, and changing geopolitical dynamics.
The situation described in the article is symptomatic of a larger trend of increasing competition for water resources globally, exacerbated by climate change and population growth. In South Asia, the Indus basin is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on snowmelt and glacier melt, which are highly sensitive to temperature changes. The potential for reduced water availability in the future adds urgency to the need for cooperative water management strategies between India and Pakistan. The IWT, while historically successful in preventing major water disputes, may need to be updated or supplemented with new agreements to address emerging challenges, such as climate change impacts and the development of new water infrastructure. The article also highlights the importance of trust and transparency in transboundary water management. India's suspension of the IWT, even temporarily, has eroded trust between the two countries and fueled Pakistan's anxieties about its water security. Similarly, Pakistan's concerns about the Shahtoot Dam reflect a lack of trust in India's intentions and the potential for the dam to disrupt the flow of the Kabul River. Building confidence between riparian states requires open communication, data sharing, and joint monitoring of water resources. The article implicitly calls for a more collaborative approach to water management in the Indus basin, involving all relevant stakeholders, including India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. This could involve establishing a joint commission to oversee the implementation of water projects, sharing data on water availability and usage, and developing joint strategies for adapting to climate change. Ultimately, the long-term stability and prosperity of the region depend on the ability of these countries to cooperate on water resource management and address their shared challenges in a sustainable and equitable manner. The increased scrutiny of the region due to satellite technology allows for greater monitoring of the building of such structures, increasing the likelihood of an early warning system for potential misuse of resources or violations of treaties.
Source: Satellite images show China ramped up Pakistan dam work in late 2024