 |
|
The Narendra Modi government’s decision to include caste data in the next Census marks a potentially transformative juncture in India’s political evolution. The implications of this decision are far-reaching and fraught with uncertainty, promising to reshape the contours of political discourse and electoral strategies across the nation, particularly in politically pivotal states like Uttar Pradesh. The real crux of the matter lies not merely in the enumeration of castes, but in the anticipated surge of demands to re-evaluate existing affirmative action policies. This includes the contentious 50 per cent ceiling on reservations and the complex question of sub-categorisation within quota beneficiary groups. The introduction of caste-based data promises to ignite debates that could challenge the established order and force a re-examination of long-held assumptions about social justice and representation.
Initially, the move was widely interpreted as a strategic maneuver by Modi to wrest control of a critical issue from the Opposition parties. For the Congress party, which has been relegated to the political periphery since 2014, and for regional powerhouses such as the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the prospect of a caste census offered a potential pathway to regain lost ground and reconnect with historically marginalised communities. Rahul Gandhi, in particular, championed the cause of a nationwide caste census in the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, aiming to galvanise support among these demographics. However, the inherent complexities and potential pitfalls of the caste census soon became apparent, revealing that it could pose significant challenges for all political players involved. The heightened caste awareness, particularly among Other Backward Classes (OBCs), holds the potential to fundamentally alter the political map in unpredictable ways. Equally significant is the reaction of the upper castes, who, though numerically smaller, wield considerable political influence. The question remains whether they will be content with the existing Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) quota or whether they will be compelled to reconsider their political allegiances in light of the new realities presented by the caste census.
While it might be an oversimplification to attribute the BJP’s setbacks in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls solely to the caste enumeration exercise, the Opposition’s narrative, encapsulated in the phrase “Arakshan khatam kar denge” (they will end reservations), undoubtedly resonated with OBC and Dalit voters, extending far beyond the immediate context of the Census. This perception, fueled by carefully crafted political rhetoric, engendered anxiety among large segments of backward and marginalised communities, ultimately undermining the BJP’s painstakingly constructed cross-caste coalition. The proposed caste census places the BJP at a crucial crossroads, forcing it to reconcile its ideological principles with the exigencies of political pragmatism. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP’s ideological guiding force, has traditionally viewed caste as a divisive force within Hindu society, advocating for cultural unity over social differentiation. However, the imperatives of electoral politics, particularly the growing political assertiveness of OBCs and Dalits, have compelled the BJP to engage with caste realities in a more pragmatic manner, despite its inherent ideological discomfort. Yet, the RSS, acknowledging the changing landscape, has even obliquely supported a nationwide caste census, signaling a potential shift in its long-held stance.
The political ramifications of caste enumeration are poised to be far-reaching and transformative. In Bihar, the BJP may still be able to effectively connect with backward caste voters, especially given the perceived erosion of the JDU’s influence over the Most Backward Classes (MBCs). However, in Uttar Pradesh (UP), the political dynamics are considerably more fluid and volatile, making the state a crucial battleground in the unfolding caste-based political drama. UP, India’s most politically significant state, serves as a microcosm of these emerging tensions. Since 2014, the BJP has skillfully navigated the state’s intricate identity politics by seamlessly blending assertive Hindutva with strategic social engineering – a model frequently referred to as Subaltern Hindutva. By cultivating alliances with non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits – communities that had historically been marginalised by the Yadav-centric Samajwadi Party and the Jatav-centric Bahujan Samaj Party – the BJP forged a formidable social coalition that disrupted entrenched caste structures and solidified its dominance in the state.
However, the implementation of the caste census now presents a potential threat to this carefully constructed equilibrium. Estimates suggest that OBCs constitute approximately 44–50 per cent of UP’s population, while Scheduled Castes account for around 21 per cent. Collectively, these communities represent a substantial electoral majority. As the 2027 Assembly elections draw closer, these communities are expected to mobilize with renewed vigour, demanding not only symbolic recognition but also genuine political representation and a potential overhaul of the existing reservation framework. The slogan “Jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni hissedari” (the greater the population, the greater the share) is gaining increasing traction, reviving the moral justification that underpinned the implementation of the Mandal Commission report in the 1990s. This initiative sought to rectify historical injustices through affirmative action. As V.P. Singh famously declared, “Janm ke adhar par anyay kiya hai to janm ke adhar par hi nyay karna hoga” (If injustice has been done on the basis of birth, then justice must also be delivered on the basis of birth). This sentiment resurfaced during the “Mandal vs Kamandal” discourse preceding the 2024 general elections and is poised to gain even greater momentum in the wake of the caste census.
The debate over sub-categorising Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), defining a “creamy layer” within these groups, and potentially breaching the 50 per cent reservation cap are already intensifying. The caste census, once finalized, will provide the data needed to fuel these discussions, potentially leading to constitutional amendments and judicial review. These shifts could fragment traditional vote banks, strain intra-caste solidarities, and compel all major political parties, including the BJP, to re-evaluate their ideological and strategic assumptions. The political discourse in India is undergoing a fundamental shift – from a focus on welfare to an emphasis on justice, from a preoccupation with development to a concern for dignity, and from a quest for identity recognition to a demand for proportional representation. Just as the Mandal era profoundly reshaped politics in the 1990s, the post-census phase has the potential to unleash a more intense, data-driven wave of social justice politics. For the BJP, this moment presents both new electoral opportunities and unprecedented challenges, particularly in states like UP, where balancing the principles of Hindutva with the demands of caste-based justice is becoming an increasingly delicate balancing act.
The state of Uttar Pradesh, with its complex social fabric and deeply entrenched caste divisions, will be the crucible in which these competing forces collide. The BJP's ability to navigate this complex terrain will determine not only its own political future but also the future direction of Indian politics as a whole. As the caste census data becomes available, it is likely to trigger a period of intense political maneuvering, social upheaval, and legal challenges. The outcome of these battles will have a lasting impact on the lives of millions of Indians, shaping the future of affirmative action, social justice, and political representation for generations to come. The rise of caste-based politics is not without its dangers. It could lead to increased social fragmentation, political instability, and even violence. However, it also presents an opportunity to address historical injustices, empower marginalized communities, and create a more equitable and inclusive society. The challenge for Indian political leaders is to harness the power of caste-based politics in a way that promotes social harmony and national unity, rather than division and conflict.
Ultimately, the caste census is not merely a statistical exercise but a profound social and political experiment. It represents a bold attempt to confront the enduring realities of caste in India and to create a more just and equitable society. However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges and uncertainties. The success of this experiment will depend on the wisdom, courage, and commitment of all those involved – political leaders, social activists, legal scholars, and ordinary citizens. The coming years will be a test of India's ability to reconcile its ancient traditions with its modern aspirations. The caste census has opened Pandora's Box. What emerges from it will determine the future of Indian democracy and the fate of millions of its citizens. It will require careful navigation and a commitment to inclusive governance to avoid further division. It will also require a re-evaluation of the nation’s commitment to social justice and the principles of equality and opportunity for all. The political landscape is on the precipice of substantial change and the direction it will take will depend on choices made now.
The long-term consequences of the caste census are difficult to predict with certainty. However, one thing is clear: it has the potential to reshape Indian politics in profound ways. It could lead to a more fragmented political landscape, with greater emphasis on caste-based identities and interests. It could also lead to a more inclusive and equitable society, with greater opportunities for marginalized communities. The key will be to find ways to manage the tensions and conflicts that are likely to arise as a result of the census and to ensure that all voices are heard in the debate over the future of Indian society. In the end, the success of the caste census will depend on its ability to promote a sense of shared citizenship and national unity, rather than division and conflict. The task ahead is daunting, but the potential rewards are immense. India has the opportunity to create a society that is both just and prosperous, where all citizens have the opportunity to reach their full potential. To achieve this goal, it will need to embrace the challenges of caste-based politics and to work together to build a better future for all.
Source: When Mandal meets Kamandal: The caste census and UP politics