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The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) decision to conduct a caste enumeration as part of the next population census represents a significant departure from its traditional Hindutva ideology. This move, while seemingly unexpected, is rooted in the party's recent electoral performance and growing concerns about its support base. The BJP's shift towards a caste-based strategy is driven by two primary factors: the need to address potential erosion in the Other Backward Classes (OBC) vote and internal tensions within the party, particularly in Uttar Pradesh. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections revealed vulnerabilities in the BJP's electoral stronghold, with a notable decline in seat tally in Uttar Pradesh. This decline has prompted the party to reassess its strategy and address the concerns of the OBC community, which forms the bedrock of its support base. The decision to conduct a caste census can be seen as an attempt to regain the trust and loyalty of OBC voters who may be drifting away from the party. Moreover, the BJP's move is also influenced by the growing momentum of the INDIA bloc, led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, which has been consistently advocating for a caste census. The BJP hopes to counter the INDIA bloc's narrative and seize the initiative by embracing the idea of caste enumeration. By taking ownership of the caste census, the BJP aims to blunt the INDIA bloc's campaign and maintain its dominance in the political landscape. The internal dynamics within the BJP, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, also play a crucial role in the decision to conduct a caste census. The state's upper-caste Rajput chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, has faced criticism from OBC MLAs within the party, highlighting underlying tensions and power struggles. These tensions have been further exacerbated by the performance in the Lok Sabha elections, with OBC MLAs expressing dissatisfaction with Adityanath's leadership. The announcement of a caste-based census is seen as a potential way to bridge the gap between the upper castes and OBCs, promote unity within the party, and regain the confidence of OBC voters in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP's decision to conduct a caste census is not without its risks. Caste politics in India is a complex and sensitive issue, and any attempt to manipulate or exploit caste identities for political gain can have unintended consequences. The late Prime Minister VP Singh's implementation of the Mandal report, which reserved 26% of government jobs and school seats for OBCs, serves as a cautionary tale. While Singh's move aimed to garner support from OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims, it ultimately led to his downfall and reshaped the political landscape of North India. The BJP's embrace of a caste-based strategy is reminiscent of Singh's Mandal gambit, but with a different set of objectives. The BJP, which once opposed Mandal with its Hindutva ideology, is now attempting to reconcile caste-based politics with its traditional Hindutva base. This balancing act will be crucial to the party's success in navigating the complexities of Mandal 3.0. The BJP's decision to conduct a caste enumeration is driven by a combination of political expediency, electoral concerns, and internal dynamics. While the move may help the party regain the support of OBC voters and address internal tensions, it also carries significant risks. The BJP must carefully navigate the complexities of caste politics and ensure that its strategy does not backfire and alienate its core supporters.
The decision by the Modi government to undertake a caste enumeration within the next population census marks a significant shift, especially considering the BJP's historical inclination towards a unified Hindu identity that transcends caste divisions. This pivot, while seemingly abrupt, has been hinted at through various signals, particularly following the BJP's less-than-stellar performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Crucially, this move appears motivated by a confluence of factors, primarily aimed at fortifying the party's OBC support base and addressing internal fissures within its ranks, particularly in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. The nod from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a crucial ideological pillar of the BJP, to the caste census proposal, contingent upon the results being used for societal welfare rather than political manipulation, underscores the strategic importance the BJP attaches to this initiative. This represents a departure from the Sangh's traditional resistance to caste-based categorizations, signaling a pragmatic adaptation to the evolving political landscape. The upcoming assembly polls in Bihar, with its deeply entrenched caste-based electoral dynamics, provide an immediate impetus for this decision. However, the motivations extend beyond the immediate electoral calculus of Bihar. The 2024 poll results exposed vulnerabilities in the BJP's OBC vote base, which has been instrumental in the party's ascent to power and its sustained electoral dominance. Losses in key regions like Uttar Pradesh have triggered alarm bells within the party, prompting a reevaluation of strategies to retain the loyalty of OBC voters. This concern over shifting OBC allegiances is so profound that the government opted to unveil the caste census initiative even amidst heightened tensions with Pakistan, a situation that demands the undivided attention of the national security apparatus. Two primary anxieties appear to have driven the government's decision to prioritize domestic politics despite the ongoing security concerns. First, there's an acknowledgment that the INDIA bloc, spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi, is gaining ground with its persistent calls for a caste census. The BJP aims to preempt the Congress and the INDIA bloc by appropriating the idea of caste enumeration and turning it to its advantage. Second, the BJP faces internal strife in Uttar Pradesh, stemming from the strained relationship between the upper-caste Rajput Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath, and OBC MLAs within the party. Despite the support from the RSS, tensions persist, underscoring the need for measures to bridge the divide and maintain party unity. The BJP hopes that announcing a caste census will help mend these fractures and win back OBC voters who may be gravitating away from the party.
Uttar Pradesh, with assembly polls on the horizon, is a key battleground. The BJP's internal issues here are further compounded by the uneasy alliances with OBC-centric parties like Apna Dal and the Nishad Party. Despite Anupriya Patel (Apna Dal) serving as a Union Minister and Sanjay Nishad (Nishad Party) holding a cabinet position in Uttar Pradesh, both have openly clashed with Chief Minister Adityanath on various occasions. These instances of discord highlight the fragile nature of the BJP's coalition and the potential for further erosion of OBC support if these grievances are not addressed effectively. The specter of VP Singh's Mandal Commission implementation looms large over the BJP's current strategy. Singh's decision to provide reservations for OBCs was a calculated gamble aimed at consolidating a broad coalition of OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims. While the political maneuver ultimately backfired and led to his ouster, it indelibly altered the socio-political fabric of North India. Singh's beneficiaries were the political descendants of socialist leaders like Ram Manohar Lohia and Karpoori Thakur, who championed a more inclusive social order for OBC communities. The BJP's adoption of a caste headcount, mirroring Singh's approach, is a significant departure from its historical opposition to Mandal politics. The irony is palpable, given that the BJP previously mobilized its support base against Mandal by leveraging Hindutva sentiments. The party's current willingness to sideline Hindutva, at least temporarily, in favor of a caste-based strategy underscores the depth of its concern about the erosion of OBC support. However, this strategy carries considerable risks. Caste is a complex and volatile issue in Indian politics, and any misstep could alienate key segments of the BJP's base. The party must carefully navigate the delicate balance between appealing to OBC voters and maintaining the loyalty of its traditional Hindutva supporters. This requires a nuanced approach that avoids exacerbating caste divisions while addressing the legitimate concerns and aspirations of the OBC community. Ultimately, the success of the BJP's caste census initiative hinges on its ability to manage the inherent risks and leverage the potential benefits. The party's long-term electoral prospects will depend on its skill in reconciling caste-based politics with its overarching Hindutva ideology, a challenging task that could reshape the political landscape of India.
The announcement of a caste-based census by the BJP is a high-stakes political maneuver, fraught with potential rewards and perils. The party is attempting to walk a tightrope, balancing the need to address the concerns of its OBC support base with the imperative of maintaining the cohesion of its broader Hindutva coalition. The success of this endeavor will depend on a number of factors, including the accuracy and credibility of the census data, the transparency and fairness of the implementation process, and the party's ability to effectively communicate its rationale to the public. The BJP's rivals, particularly the INDIA bloc, will undoubtedly seize on any perceived flaws or inconsistencies in the census data or implementation process to undermine the party's credibility and mobilize opposition. The BJP must be prepared to counter these challenges with a robust and proactive communication strategy that emphasizes the benefits of the census for all segments of society. Beyond the immediate political considerations, the caste census has the potential to provide valuable data on the socio-economic conditions of different caste groups in India. This data can be used to inform policy decisions and design targeted interventions to address inequalities and promote social justice. However, the data must be used responsibly and ethically, avoiding any actions that could further stigmatize or marginalize vulnerable communities. The BJP's decision to conduct a caste-based census is a bold experiment that could have far-reaching consequences for Indian politics and society. It remains to be seen whether the party can successfully navigate the complexities of caste politics and achieve its desired objectives. The coming months will be crucial in determining the fate of this initiative and its impact on the future of Indian democracy. The shadow of VP Singh’s Mandal Commission hangs heavy over this decision, a constant reminder of the unpredictable nature of caste-based politics in India. The BJP is betting that it can succeed where Singh faltered, but only time will tell if this gamble will pay off.
The BJP's decision to undertake a caste census, despite its historical reservations, reveals the evolving nature of Indian politics and the pragmatic adjustments parties must make to remain competitive. The core reasons underpinning this strategic shift revolve around anxieties regarding the erosion of the party's OBC vote base and the need to address internal rifts within its ranks, particularly in the electorally crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. The RSS's conditional approval highlights the strategic significance attached to this endeavor, signaling a willingness to adapt to the changing political landscape. While the impending assembly elections in Bihar offer an immediate impetus, the underlying motivations extend far beyond. The 2024 poll results exposed vulnerabilities in the BJP's OBC support, prompting a strategic reevaluation aimed at solidifying this vital constituency. The government's decision to proceed with the census amidst heightened tensions with Pakistan underscores the urgency and importance it assigns to this domestic political maneuver. The BJP's decision to embrace the caste census is also driven by the need to counter the growing momentum of the INDIA bloc, which has consistently advocated for such a measure. By taking ownership of the issue, the BJP hopes to preempt its rivals and maintain its dominance in the political arena. Internally, the party seeks to bridge the divide between upper-caste leaders and OBC members, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, where tensions have simmered following recent electoral setbacks. The announcement of the census is viewed as a potential means of fostering unity and restoring confidence among OBC voters. However, the BJP must tread carefully, mindful of the potential pitfalls of caste-based politics and the lessons of VP Singh's Mandal Commission. The party's ability to reconcile this strategy with its traditional Hindutva ideology will be crucial to its long-term success. The BJP's caste census initiative represents a calculated gamble with significant implications for Indian politics and society. The party's ability to manage the complexities of caste dynamics and effectively communicate its rationale to the public will ultimately determine the success or failure of this endeavor.
Source: Opinion | There Are Two Big Reasons Behind BJP's Caste Census Move