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The aftermath of the Pahalgam attack on tourists has ignited a complex web of geopolitical considerations for India, far beyond the immediate response to the tragedy. The article delves into the various options available to New Delhi, the potential ramifications of each choice, and the internal dynamics within both India and Pakistan that shape the broader context. Crucially, the piece highlights the looming presence of China as a significant factor influencing India's strategic calculations. The author asserts that any military action against Pakistan must be weighed against the possibility of opening a front with Beijing, especially given reports of China's increased military support to Islamabad. This triangular dynamic – India, Pakistan, and China – underscores the interconnectedness of regional security and the delicate balancing act required to navigate these treacherous waters. The Modi government's initial response, characterized by a perceived distancing from military action and an emphasis on a 'peacemaker' profile, is presented as a calculated move, potentially influenced by the lessons learned from the 2019 Balakot strike. The author suggests that the Balakot operation, while initially portrayed as a success, ultimately revealed vulnerabilities and complexities that tempered the appetite for further military escalations. The capture of an Indian pilot and the unacknowledged casualties of a 'blue-on-blue' incident served as a stark reminder of the potential costs and unintended consequences of military action. Furthermore, the ongoing troop deployment on the eastern Ladakh front with China adds another layer of constraint, making a full-scale military confrontation with Pakistan a less appealing option. The article also examines the internal political dynamics within both India and Pakistan. In India, the author points out the BJP's adeptness at leveraging any event for political gain, suggesting that even seemingly irresponsible remarks by state Chief Ministers are likely orchestrated to capitalize on anti-Pakistan sentiment. On the Pakistani side, the article highlights the internal challenges facing the government, including the fight against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the rising insurgency in Balochistan. These internal pressures, coupled with Pakistan's economic woes, limit its capacity for 'adventurism' and make a large-scale military confrontation with India less likely. The article also touches upon the long-standing issue of cross-border terrorism, with Pakistan accusing India of involvement in the killings of various individuals within its borders, while India denies any involvement in the Balochistan insurgency. The complexities of the 'Islamabad-army-ISI-terror complex' are underscored, making it difficult for India to pinpoint a specific target for retaliation. The author also analyzes the optics of the situation, noting the flurry of activity on social media and the perception of an impending war. However, the article cautions against relying solely on social media narratives, suggesting that a more nuanced understanding of the situation reveals a different picture. The author emphasizes that both India and Pakistan have compelling reasons to avoid a full-scale conflict, given the economic and strategic costs involved. The piece moves on to examine the situation in Kashmir, noting that the abrogation of Article 370 has not brought about the promised 'normalcy'. The article highlights the ongoing security measures, including internet shutdowns and arrests, and the growing discontent among the Kashmiri population. The author questions whether the fragile peace that has existed since 2019 can be considered the 'new normal', or whether the decades-old shadow of militancy and terrorism continues to define the region. The broader regional context is also considered, with the author noting the challenges posed by the 'slippery' governments in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The article criticizes India's approach to the Taliban, arguing that engaging with Kabul should be based on a strategic vision rather than solely to spite Islamabad. The growing influence of China in the region, particularly its focus on OBOR projects and mining reserves in NWFP and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is also highlighted. In conclusion, the article argues that the Pahalgam attack should be contained within Kashmir, as the Kashmiri people are already bearing the brunt of its consequences. While the attack has triggered anti-Pakistan sentiments across India, the author suggests that there is no compelling reason to wage a new conflict on top of the existing counter-terrorism efforts. The focus should be on addressing the underlying issues in Kashmir and engaging in a more nuanced and strategic approach to regional politics, rather than resorting to knee-jerk reactions and military escalations. The article is a thoughtful and comprehensive analysis of the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding the Pahalgam attack, urging caution and strategic thinking in the face of heightened tensions.
Source: Optics Post Pahalgam