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The Delhi Assembly elections of 2025 concluded with a voter turnout of approximately 60%, leaving the political landscape in anticipation of the exit poll results. These results, released by Zee News-ICPL AI, paint a picture of a remarkably close contest between the two dominant parties: the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The poll projects AAP securing 33 to 38 seats, while BJP is predicted to win 31 to 36 seats. This narrow margin highlights the intensity of the electoral battle and the potential for unexpected shifts in power. The Congress party, meanwhile, continues to struggle, with projections ranging from 0 to 2 seats, potentially acting as a spoiler in this close race. This situation starkly contrasts with the 2020 election, where exit polls significantly overestimated AAP's dominance, projecting 55-60 seats versus the actual 62, and drastically underestimated BJP's performance. The discrepancies between the 2020 exit polls and actual results raise questions about the accuracy and methodology of the current projections and highlight the inherent uncertainty in predicting electoral outcomes.
The exit polls also shed light on the preferences of Delhi voters regarding their preferred Chief Minister. Arvind Kejriwal, the current Chief Minister and AAP's leader, remains the most popular choice, with 50% of respondents indicating their preference for him. This high level of support underscores Kejriwal's significant influence and popularity within the electorate, despite recent controversies. BJP's Parvesh Verma follows with 30% support, reflecting the party's ongoing efforts to challenge AAP's dominance. Congress' Sandeep Dixit received a significantly lower 20% of support, reflecting the party's continued struggle to gain traction in Delhi's political scene. The popularity of the candidates is clearly intertwined with the perceived success of the parties' respective manifestos. The Zee News-ICPL exit poll shows AAP's manifesto receiving 50% approval, BJP’s securing 30%, and Congress trailing at 10%. This disparity in manifesto popularity further reflects the electorate's leanings towards AAP, reinforcing its projected lead in seat numbers.
The exit poll also analyzed the potential impact of key controversies on the election results. The allegations surrounding Yamuna river pollution, leveled against the AAP government, are predicted to benefit the BJP, with 60% of respondents believing so. However, 40% believe it will favor AAP. The Liquor scam case, impacting AAP, is projected to negatively impact the party's chances according to 55% of respondents, while 45% believe it will not have any significant effect. The Union Budget's income tax relief, benefiting individuals earning up to ₹12 lakh annually, is expected to aid BJP by 65% of respondents. However, 35% believe it will have no impact on the election outcome. These findings underscore the complex interplay of policy, perception, and scandals in shaping voters' choices. Analyzing these factors alongside the predicted seat numbers reveals that the controversies, while impactful, haven't completely overturned AAP's projected lead. The close margin suggests that these controversies are likely to have offsetting effects, with some benefiting BJP while others either neutralising or even marginally benefiting AAP.
Comparing the current exit poll predictions with past election results reveals significant differences. In the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls projected a far more decisive victory for AAP (55-60 seats) than the actual outcome (62 seats). Similarly, BJP's performance was underestimated. The 2015 elections saw a landslide victory for AAP (67 seats) while exit polls showed a significantly closer race. The discrepancies between projected and actual results raise concerns about the accuracy of exit polls and highlight the inherent unpredictability of elections. While exit polls provide valuable insights into voter sentiment, it is crucial to remember that they are not definitive predictions of the actual election outcome. Several factors like unforeseen events or last-minute shifts in voter opinion could potentially alter the final results significantly. The 2025 Delhi elections are poised to be a closely contested battle, with the final outcome remaining uncertain until the official results are announced.
Source: Delhi Exit Poll Results 2025: Close Contest Between AAP, BJP; Check Favourite CM Face