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The southwest monsoon, a vital source of rainfall for India, is set to begin its withdrawal from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh on September 23. This marks a six-day delay from its normal schedule, which was originally slated for September 17. Despite the delay, the monsoon has delivered an impressive performance this year, exceeding normal rainfall by 6%.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has attributed the delayed withdrawal to favorable conditions. From June 1, the onset of the monsoon season, the country has experienced a total rainfall of 87.59 cm until September 21, surpassing its long-period average (1971-2020) of 82.72 cm. This remarkable surplus has exceeded the season’s long period average (LPA) of 86.86 cm, and with further precipitation expected in several states over the coming days, the season may end up with a 6% surplus, aligning with the IMD’s prediction made in April.
The IMD had forecast a 'above normal' monsoon season this year, predicting a rainfall volume of 106% of the LPA, with a model error of ±4%. The forecast also anticipated above normal rainfall over Central and Southern India, normal rainfall over the North-West region, and below normal rainfall over the North-East India. This year, the monsoon onset was recorded simultaneously over Kerala and northeastern states on May 30, two days before the normal schedule over Kerala and six days before the normal date over the northeast region. The southwest monsoon fully covered the country by July 2, six days ahead of its normal schedule.
Despite exceeding its LPA, the monsoon’s performance has not been uniform across India. While the Central and Southern regions experienced above-normal rainfall, the North-East region recorded deficient rainfall. This disparity in rainfall distribution is likely due to several factors, including regional variations in wind patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and other meteorological conditions. The IMD will continue to monitor the monsoon’s withdrawal and provide updates as needed.
Source: Monsoon surplus at 6%, withdrawal to begin from Rajasthan and Kachchh on September 23