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The upcoming Haryana Assembly elections, scheduled for October 5th, are anticipated to be a tight contest between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. An analysis of electoral data from the past five years reveals a significant shift in the political landscape of the state. While the BJP enjoyed a sweeping victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, subsequent elections have witnessed a narrowing of the gap between the two major parties, with more contests being decided by close margins and a decline in the BJP's average winning margin.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured a complete sweep of all 10 seats in Haryana, building upon its 2014 performance. The BJP's average victory margin at the Assembly segment level was a substantial 50,000 votes, demonstrating its dominant position. The Congress, on the other hand, was ahead in only 10 Assembly segments with an average margin of 32,000 votes. The Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), led by Dushyant Chautala, which had emerged after splitting from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), secured a single Assembly segment with a significant margin. The overall average winning margin across all parties was 47,000 votes, highlighting the dominance of the BJP.
However, the 2019 Assembly elections saw the BJP fall short of a majority, winning 40 seats compared to the Congress's 31. The JJP won 10 seats, playing the role of kingmaker in forming a coalition government with the BJP. This election witnessed a significant increase in closely contested races, with 47 seats decided by a margin of less than 10% of the votes. The BJP's average victory margin dropped to 17,000 votes, while the Congress's margin stood at 13,000. The JJP recorded the highest average winning margin at nearly 25,000 votes. These results indicate a growing competitiveness in the state's political landscape, with the BJP's dominance being challenged by the Congress and the emergence of the JJP as a significant factor.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections further cemented this trend of closer races. While the BJP won 44 Assembly segments, its average victory margin plummeted to just over 25,000 votes, almost halving from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress, on the other hand, secured 42 Assembly segments with an average victory margin of 30,000 votes, maintaining its margin from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP's shrinking victory margins suggest a decline in its support base across the state. The Congress, conversely, has maintained its support base and expanded its reach, evidenced by its increased number of Assembly segment wins. The emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), in alliance with the Congress, also added to the complexity of the electoral landscape.
The decline in the median victory margin in the 30 most competitive races further underscores this trend. From a 13.3% vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the margin has drastically dropped to 3.84% in the 2024 elections. The BJP's significant reduction in victory margins, compared to the Congress's stability, highlights the shift in political dynamics in Haryana. The upcoming Assembly elections are expected to be a close contest, with the BJP facing a formidable challenge from the Congress and the AAP. The results will be crucial in determining the future political landscape of Haryana.
Source: Since BJP’s 2019 Lok Sabha sweep in Haryana, fall in its victory margins, rise in tighter contests